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I'm wondering, over the next century which of these 4 cities will continue to grow, reach their peak and which will decline if at all?
Right now:
New York: 8,175,133
Los Angeles: 3,792,621
Chicago: 2,695,598
Houston: 2,099,451
I see it happening like this:
New York continues to grow slowly and tops out around 9 million. Los Angeles grows mainly by becoming more densly populated and reaches 5 million before growth slows down significantly. Chicago, which has seen decline over the last 30 or so years grows slowly then tops out around 3 million. Houston continues to make gains and reaches 3.5 million, passing Chicago by the end of the century.
What do you all think? Am I crazy or does this seem kinda right?
I'm wondering, over the next century which of these 4 cities will continue to grow, reach their peak and which will decline if at all?
Right now:
New York: 8,175,133
Los Angeles: 3,792,621
Chicago: 2,695,598
Houston: 2,099,451
I see it happening like this:
New York continues to grow slowly and tops out around 9 million. Los Angeles grows mainly by becoming more densly populated and reaches 5 million before growth slows down significantly. Chicago, which has seen decline over the last 30 or so years grows slowly then tops out around 3 million. Houston continues to make gains and reaches 3.5 million, passing Chicago by the end of the century.
What do you all think? Am I crazy or does this seem kinda right?
I believe that its possible that both Los Angeles and Houston could have significantly higher populations than you predict. Especially Houston, which has the land area and the growth potential to even come in as #2. After all, it is almost 90 years to the next century, almost anything could happen.
I think it's kind of pointless to try to predict what will happen in 100 years. I mean, about 100 years ago, the 10 largest cities were:
1. New York
2. Chicago
3. Philadelphia
4. St. Louis
5. Boston
6. Cleveland
7. Baltimore
8. Pittsburgh
9. Detroit
10. Buffalo
Now, only 3 of those cities remain in the top 10. Heck, for all we know, LA, Chicago, and Houston could all fall out of the top 5 if some other cities take off with extreme growth and surpass them. Honestly, there's no way of making any sort of educated or logical prediction.
I'm wondering, over the next century which of these 4 cities will continue to grow, reach their peak and which will decline if at all?
Right now:
New York: 8,175,133
Los Angeles: 3,792,621
Chicago: 2,695,598
Houston: 2,099,451
I see it happening like this:
New York continues to grow slowly and tops out around 9 million. Los Angeles grows mainly by becoming more densly populated and reaches 5 million before growth slows down significantly. Chicago, which has seen decline over the last 30 or so years grows slowly then tops out around 3 million. Houston continues to make gains and reaches 3.5 million, passing Chicago by the end of the century.
What do you all think? Am I crazy or does this seem kinda right?
This does not seem like a bad prediction, but LINative and fierymustache do make valid points.
I think it's kind of pointless to try to predict what will happen in 100 years.. Honestly, there's no way of making any sort of educated or logical prediction.
This... I think looking back 100 years shows the extreme unpredictability in population growth because there are a ton of social, economic, political, environmental, factors as well as technology advances that influence population change.
One of the biggest things that we can't possibly predict is the influence climate change will have cities. While I'm not here to debate the causes with anyone, all climitatologists seem to agree that there will be a significant climate pattern change to the US that is impossible to predict with certainty the severity of the change.
This article shows how Chicago is preparing for the news that we will have the climate of Baton Rouge, Louisana by 2100. If that could potentially happen, who knows what the climate will actually be in the south:
..............You can read about it there. Since then Houston has vastly diversified it's economy. I just don't see this overdue bust since Houston has already been through one in recent History and learned from it's mistakes. Not to say it can't happen, but it's not likely.
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