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Yea we'll have to see how it plays out. I still can't believe San Jose and San Francisco aren't the same MSA, hopefully once BART is extended to DTSJ it will mesh them together.
Also I had heard on a different thread Philly and NYC meet qualifications to be in the same CSA but chose (not sure who chooses but whatever) not to be. That seems pretty crazy given how distinct the two cities have always seemed in my mind, but things can surprise ya I guess!
New York and Philadelphia do not even come close to meeting the commuting requirements to combine. The numbers are breadcrumbs compared to the 15% that's required. I doubt it's 1%.
Furthermore if 2 MSAs meet the percentage, they are auromatically combined-its not a matter of choice.
Yeah. I expect Modesto and Salinas to be absorbed into the Bay Area by 2020, or at least qualify under currrent guidelines. Merced is also one to watch.
The number of commuters from Sacramento to the Bay soared by 50% in the last deciannual period, which is astonishing.
And then there's small counties like Calaveras, Lake and Mendocino.
Its worth mentioning that all the areas mentioned above along with the current Bay Area CSA already has.about 12 million people and is likely to add at least 1 million more btwn 2010 and 2020.
The number of sac commuters to the bay is like less than three percent of commuters. I would not be surprised if nyc and philly crosss commuting destroy s the bay and sac in raw numbers.
The Bay Area has millions of people within commuting distance that are not yet part of the CSA but probably will be in the next 2 decades. Sacramento, Modesto, Salinas andMerced are all prime candidates based on fast growing commuter numbers.
Merced is too far out to be included in the Bay Area CSA. Merced is in a bad spot on the 99 corridor since it's about halfway between the 580/152 corridors. Your looking at just under two hours drive time with no traffic to San Francisco and about an 90 minutes with no traffic to outer San Jose having to transverse a two lane hwy (152) which is one of the most dangerous stretches of road in Northern California.
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Originally Posted by 18Montclair
And then there's small counties like Calaveras, Lake and Mendocino.
That would be many decades after we are long gone if ever. Mendocino a BIG maybe and that's only because of a mutilane hwy 101 and the plans for commuter rail in Sonoma/Marin Counties along the old NWP right of way. Lake or Calaveras Counties? fugetaboutit.
Stanislaus, Sonoma and Napa counties have a lot of room for growth before we even debate those outer counties that are all well over two hours away (except the southern tier of Mendocino County).
Merced is too far out to be included in the Bay Area CSA. Merced is in a bad spot on the 99 corridor since it's about halfway between the 580/152 corridors. Your looking at just under two hours drive time with no traffic to San Francisco and about an 90 minutes with no traffic to outer San Jose having to transverse a two lane hwy (152) which is one of the most dangerous stretches of road in Northern California.
That would be many decades after we are long gone if ever. Mendocino a BIG maybe and that's only because of a mutilane hwy 101 and the plans for commuter rail in Sonoma/Marin Counties along the old NWP right of way. Lake or Calaveras Counties? fugetaboutit.
Stanislaus, Sonoma and Napa counties have a lot of room for growth before we even debate those outer counties that are all well over two hours away (except the southern tier of Mendocino County).
Sometimes counties with small populations can be sucked into MSA's quite quickly, but I don't know too much about the counties in question.
I think the greater SF area will eventually surpass Chicagoland given its higher sheer amounts of growth. Like I said, we'll see. You never know, Chicago could suddenly cure it's 50 year stagnation, or SF could be hit by an earthquake. Nobody knows!
The number of sac commuters to the bay is like less than three percent of commuters. I would not be surprised if nyc and philly crosss commuting destroy s the bay and sac in raw numbers.
Raw numbers are meaningless, this is a percentages game. fyi.
Merced is too far out to be included in the Bay Area CSA. Merced is in a bad spot on the 99 corridor since it's about halfway between the 580/152 corridors. Your looking at just under two hours drive time with no traffic to San Francisco and about an 90 minutes with no traffic to outer San Jose having to transverse a two lane hwy (152) which is one of the most dangerous stretches of road in Northern California.
That would be many decades after we are long gone if ever. Mendocino a BIG maybe and that's only because of a mutilane hwy 101 and the plans for commuter rail in Sonoma/Marin Counties along the old NWP right of way. Lake or Calaveras Counties? fugetaboutit.
Stanislaus, Sonoma and Napa counties have a lot of room for growth before we even debate those outer counties that are all well over two hours away (except the southern tier of Mendocino County).
Distance is not even considered.
And you need to remember that Modesto and Merced may be far from SF but they arent that far from Pleasanton and San Ramon, let alone Stockton which is now officially part of the SF CSA.
Napa county is ALREADY part of the Bay Area Combined Statistical Area btw.
Mendocino and Lake County are already part of the SF television market and have growing numbers if residents working in Sonoma County.
It seems like some forumers think the Bay Area is measured by a county's relationship to SF alone but it doesnt work that way--we look at all the counties. Alameda County for example recieves more commuters from San Joaquin County than the rest of the Bay Area combined, and Alameda Co. is the main reason San Joaquin is now part if the Bay Area CSA.
So if the most current(2012) growth rate for the Bay Area CSA remains constant, without absorbing any new counties, the Bay CSA should have approx 9.1 million by 2020.
If we add Stanislaus(which I think is the probable), the CSA population by 2020 could go up to 9.6 million.
Add Monterey on top of that and we surpass 10 million.
It is worth mentioning also that due to its strong economy, the inner Bay Area(SF and SJ MSAs) currently has the fastest growing population in CA, which is bizarre.
And you need to remember that Modesto and Merced may be far from SF but they arent that far from Pleasanton and San Ramon, let alone Stockton which is now officially part of the SF CSA.
Napa county is ALREADY part of the Bay Area Combined Statistical Area btw.
Mendocino and Lake County are already part of the SF television market and have growing numbers if residents working in Sonoma County.
It seems like some forumers think the Bay Area is measured by a county's relationship to SF alone but it doesnt work that way--we look at all the counties. Alameda County for example recieves more commuters from San Joaquin County than the rest of the Bay Area combined, and Alameda Co. is the main reason San Joaquin is now part if the Bay Area CSA.
It takes more than having a metro's TV market to be in the discussion of inclusion plus I have my doubts of being able to pick up a signal without some kind of boosted receiver. There is no other media market in Lake County because that entire area is no mans land. The fact is there is VERY few people that commute from Lake County to Sonoma County to begin with. Also, no town in Lake county even comes close to sniffing 10,000 residents (Lakeport being the biggest at 5K). So I'm baffled on these growing numbers commuters from a county that has a total population of 64,000
As for your Merced statement about being close to San Ramon/Pleasanton, the area in the Livermore Valley is predominantly bedroom communities. Sure there is some business activity but not enough to warrant the commute numbers that world be needed for MSA/CSA inclusion.
It takes more than having a metro's TV market to be in the discussion of inclusion plus I have my doubts of being able to pick up a signal without some kind of boosted receiver.
The employment stats do show a growing pattern as well.
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There is no other media market in Lake County because that entire area is no mans land. The fact is there is VERY few people that commute from Lake County to Sonoma County to begin with. Also, no town in Lake county even comes close to sniffing 10,000 residents (Lakeport being the biggest at 5K). So I'm baffled on these growing numbers commuters from a county that has a total population of 64,000
Just so you understand, size and distance are not taken into consideration.
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As for your Merced statement about being close to San Ramon/Pleasanton, the area in the Livermore Valley is predominantly bedroom communities. Sure there is some business activity but not enough to warrant the commute numbers that world be needed for MSA/CSA inclusion.
Once again, the only ' business activity' that matters is 15% of workers commuting to the Bay Area.
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