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A coal miner that votes Republican because of his views on guns and immigration is not the same as a banker on Long Island who just wants lower capital gains taxes. Or a voter in Bergen County who considers Israel his most important priority. Pennsylvania has more of the former type of Republican while New Jersey and New York have more of the latter.
I honestly think most people vote Republican (or Democratic) for incohate reasons, and then come up with ideological reasons for supporting their party on the issues after the fact.
I have never heard white suburbanite Republicans around here talk about abortion or gun control. They certainly do make more outwardly racist jokes than I was used to growing up in New England however.
I honestly think most people vote Republican (or Democratic) for incohate reasons, and then come up with ideological reasons for supporting their party on the issues after the fact.
That's not really my experience. I don't think many voters are basing their votes in accordance with the ideological tenets of William F. Buckley or Ayn Rand, but they know exactly why they are voting the way they are voting.
That's not really my experience. I don't think many voters are basing their votes in accordance with the ideological tenets of William F. Buckley or Ayn Rand, but they know exactly why they are voting the way they are voting.
But the Democratic and Republican base have gotten more doctrinaire not just due to greater sorting, but because the opinions of base voters have changed on the issues. Republicans are less likely to believe in evolution or climate change today than 20 years ago, for example. The issues became seen as "partisan" and hence a lot of Republicans stopped holding the "Democratic" view on them.
Predictably, your response will be that this poll is outdated and that social attitudes in SWPA have undergone a complete revolution since 2004. I'm not inclined to disagree on that. National opinion on gay marriage has shifted rapidly since 2004. But views on abortion, gun control, immigration, etc. are more rigid.
Here's a map illustrating the results of a six-month rolling poll on abortion support since July 2015:
And here are the numbers by county:
Allegheny County
63.2% pro-choice
36.8% pro life
61,622 poll responses
Armstrong County
50.8% pro-life
49.2% pro-choice
1,778 poll responses
Beaver County
52.3% pro-choice
47.7% pro-life
4,398 poll responses
Butler County
53.0% pro-choice
47.0% pro-life
5,718 poll responses
Fayette County
53.4% pro-choice
46.6% pro-life
1,988 poll responses
Washington County
54.8% pro-choice
45.2% pro-life
5,997 poll responses
Westmoreland County
52.7% pro-choice
47.3% pro-life
13,905 poll responses
For as socially conservative as you claim southwestern Pennsylvania is, the only county in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area with a pro-life majority according to this poll is Armstrong County, which is the least populous and most remote of them all. By the way, I positioned the map so everybody can compare rural Pennsylvania to Kentucky and see exactly how not alike they are. Kentucky is socially conservative away from the I-64 corridor. Rural Pennsylvania is socially moderate. There are only 15 counties in Pennsylvania with a pro-life majority, and the most pro-life county in Pennsylvania (Fulton County) is still more pro-choice than all bout about two dozen counties in Kentucky, according to the poll. "Pennsyltucky" is a misnomer. It's perfectly possible to be more socially conservative than New England while also being more socially liberal than Kentucky.
Here's a map illustrating the results of a six-month rolling poll on abortion support since July 2015
That's not a real poll. According to ISideWith, a near majority of Alabama and Mississippi voters support same sex marriage, which runs counter to the results of nearly every respectable pollster that polls this issue in those states.
You need to stick to polls from Quinnipiac, CBS, Franklin and Marshall, Gallup, etc....serious pollsters with rigorous methodologies that focus exclusively on Pennsylvania voters.
I mean, your basic message to Terry Madonna, who's made his whole entire career polling Pennsylania, is "Forget your polls. Look at this internet poll instead."
Attitudes toward cultural issues represent one big difference between the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the rest of the state. Support for gun control and abortion rights is considerably weaker outside of southeastern Pennsylvania, which explains why, unlike most other Democratic-leaning Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states, Pennsylvania remains a place where a pro-gun and pro-life Democrat can still win the party nomination for statewide office, as evidenced by the 2006 U.S. Senate victory by Bob Casey, the son of the former governor.
Many of those more culturally conservative voters can be found on the other end of the state, in the Pittsburgh area and in southwestern Pennsylvania.
G. Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College said that the growing cultural conservatism of Western Pennsylvania Democrats seemed a factor in statewide results. "Underriding the vote results were these deep rifts on cultural issues," he said.
Political analysts are like the mainstream sports media: Their knowledge has a shelf life. They're among the last to notice trends, and they're reluctant to abandon established narratives even when there's ever-mounting evidence against them.
When national NFL analysts talk about the Steelers, they can't believe that Ben Roethlisberger can throw the ball all over the field and lead his team to the playoffs with a mediocre defense because it's not "Steelers football" as they know it. In other words, there's no smothering defense or power running game, and the QB isn't shackled to the wall and denied all credit for the team's accomplishments. It totally blows their minds that the Steelers can win games with an explosive passing game.
Similarly, all these national political pundits probably didn't even notice the Allegheny County Chief Executive election in 2011, which was a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-public transit, pro-education and anti-fracking mechanical engineer versus a pro-education, pro-fracking, pro-gun, pro-immigration tech entrepreneur from India. They probably didn't notice that the current mayor of Pittsburgh was the first in decades to win the mayoral election without the backing of the police, fire or trade unions either.
Sure, the national political pundits are correct, if only this was 1996.
Political analysts are like the mainstream sports media: Their knowledge has a shelf life. They're among the last to notice trends, and they're reluctant to abandon established narratives even when there's ever-mounting evidence against them.
When national NFL analysts talk about the Steelers, they can't believe that Ben Roethlisberger can throw the ball all over the field and lead his team to the playoffs with a mediocre defense because it's not "Steelers football" as they know it. In other words, there's no smothering defense or power running game, and the QB isn't shackled to the wall and denied all credit for the team's accomplishments. It totally blows their minds that the Steelers can win games with an explosive passing game.
Similarly, all these national political pundits probably didn't even notice the Allegheny County Chief Executive election in 2011, which was a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-public transit, pro-education and anti-fracking mechanical engineer versus a pro-education, pro-fracking, pro-gun, pro-immigration tech entrepreneur from India. They probably didn't notice that the current mayor of Pittsburgh was the first in decades to win the mayoral election without the backing of the police, fire or trade unions either.
Sure, the national political pundits are correct, if only this was 1996.
Only Terry Madonna is not a talking head. He's a political science professor and a pollster.
Quote:
Madonna earned a Ph.D. in political history from the University of Delaware. His teaching and writing interests focus on the American presidency, American political parties and political behavior, and voting behavior. Prior to joining the faculty of Franklin and Marshall in May 2004, he was Professor and Chair of the Government Department at Millersville University of Pennsylvania and was director of its Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
Madonna founded the Keystone Poll in 1992, making it the oldest exclusively Pennsylvanian poll, and renamed it the Franklin and Marshall College Poll in 2008
It'll be interesting to see the trend after the ongoing mass die-off of elderly in the Pittsburgh area runs its course. It started about 10 years ago, and it's expected to continue for another 10 years. The elderly tend to be more socially conservative, and the Pittsburgh metropolitan area became markedly older from 1980-2000. But the city of Pittsburgh has gotten younger since 2000, and is now younger than the national average for the first time in decades. And though Allegheny County is not (yet) getting younger, it's not aging anymore either. The outer metropolitan counties are still aging, but the urban core is not. This more than likely explains how the city and Allegheny County have become more liberal in the last 10 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
And your qualifications are what exactly?
More than yours, bud. I've actually lived there, unlike you, and I still have family there to boot. My knowledge comes from direct experience and empirical evidence. I'm keen to the nuances of the area, and the bleeding edge of the trends. You're not. Just because you and the national pundits haven't noticed them yet doesn't mean they're not happening.
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