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Depends on exactly how quickly climate change affects South FL. I'm going to say that there will start to be some issues, but still not any major effects. Put South Florida around 7.8-8M in population.
Jacksonville metro I'll estimate around 2.2M. I'm not really going out on a limb, both numbers are pretty close in line with current growth rates. But I do think Jax has a decent chance to exceed this a little if, as many in the city believe, it will boom at some point in the next decade.
The below data and information is an extrapolation of the trends seen this decade for all three countries. The metrics used will be CSA for all American metropolises that have one, MSA for the ones that do not. The GGH will be used for Toronto but every other Canadian and Mexican metropolis will use their standard metropolitan definition offered by their government. So that means CMA for Canada and the standardized metropolitan area for Mexico.
2038 for Canada, Mexico, United States (all "potential" areas above 3 million):
01. Greater New York CSA: 25,232,879 [USA]
02. Mexico City Metropolitan Area: 24,461,782 [MEX]
03. Greater Los Angeles CSA: 21,542,799 [USA]
04. Greater Washington DC-Baltimore CSA: 11,826,930 [USA]
05. Toronto's Greater Golden Horseshoe: 11,670,989 [CAN]
06. Greater San Francisco Bay Area CSA: 10,857,158 [USA]
21. Greater Minneapolis/Saint Paul CSA: 4,633,640 [USA]
22. Greater Orlando CSA: 4,557,448 [USA]
23. Greater San Diego MSA: 4,100,724 [USA]
24. Greater Portland CSA: 4,002,050 [USA]
25. Puebla Metropolitan Area: 3,922,699 [MEX]
26. Greater Tampa Bay Area MSA: 3,908,398 [USA]
27. Greater Charlotte CSA: 3,535,390 [USA]
28. Greater San Antonio MSA: 3,440,204 [USA]
29. Greater Salt Lake City CSA: 3,370,392 [USA]
30. Greater Austin MSA: 3,253,614 [USA]
31. Greater Cleveland CSA: 3,188,782 [USA]
32. Greater Las Vegas CSA: 3,139,788 [USA]
33. Vancouver CMA: 3,123,885 [CAN]
34. Greater Sacramento CSA: 3,104,843 [USA]
35. Greater Raleigh/Durham CSA: 3,013,458 [USA]
Trends may be subject to change as time carries on. So with that said, this is how it is playing out right now. This doesn't take into account the addition of any areas yet due to expanded definitions, I'll have to do a separate compilation for that at a later time. Both Toluca, Mexico and Saint Louis, United States just barely missed out, both finish over 2.9 million people but right below the 3 million threshold. Same case with both Columbus, United States and Indianapolis, United States as well for that matter.
If Raleigh's MSA stayed the exact 3 counties then like it is now, I'd say it would be about 2.15M.
If the Raleigh-Durham CSA area remained stable, I'd say it would be about 3.25M
For decades now, Raleigh has outstripped its long term growth projections.
Trends may be subject to change as time carries on. So with that said, this is how it is playing out right now. This doesn't take into account the addition of any areas yet due to expanded definitions, I'll have to do a separate compilation for that at a later time. Both Toluca, Mexico and Saint Louis, United States just barely missed out, both finish over 2.9 million people but right below the 3 million threshold. Same case with both Columbus, United States and Indianapolis, United States as well for that matter.
As for expansions on the U.S. PCSAs, here's what I think will be added to each by 2038:
Atlanta: +Cleburne County, AL; Banks County, GA (Gainesville/Athens-based growth); Lumpkin County, GA (North Atlanta is the fastest growing part). That's probably it since I can't see it absorbing Rome, Macon or Columbus.
Austin: +Blanco, Burnet, Llano, Lee
Boston: None. Its best opportunity is poaching York County, ME from Portland. Don't see it happening though lots of South York County is becoming Boston exurbs.
Charlotte: +Hickory CSA, Stanly, Anson
Chicago: Likely none. Close to maxed out with Kenosha, La Salle and LaPorte all far from the central city as is.
Cleveland: +Wayne and Holmes (they are exhibiting growth figures that look like early exurban growth).
Dallas: +Erath, Van Zandt, Rains, Wood, Delta, Love (OK) and Marshall (OK). All of these are seeing growth figures that would suggest early stages of exurban development.
Denver: +Larimer (considering the growth of Boulder and Greeley MSAs, I don't see how Fort Collins escapes the pull of Denver). Even places like Cheyenne, Wyoming are starting to feel upward population pressures because of growth north of Denver. I would be surprised if Cheyenne, WY joined the CSA by 2038, however.
Detroit: +Jackson (because of Ann Arbor). Nothing else.
Houston: +Polk, San Jacinto, Grimes, Colorado
Las Vegas: None. St. George (UT) remains a long-term target
Los Angeles: None.
Miami: +Monroe. Key West looks probable based on Key Largo/Southern Dade population growth.
Minneapolis: +Eau Claire's MSA and that's it. Rochester MSA is a long-term target, but I don't see it happening by the 2030 census.
New York: None. I think it's more likely it loses counties. All of the extreme exurbs in NE PA are losing people and it's hemmed in by other MSAs everywhere else (it's definitely not absorbing Hartford or Philly or Albany).
Orlando: +Marion (Ocala) and +Brevard (Melbourne). The former due to growth in The Villages and Lake County. The latter because Orange County growth is slowly moving East.
Philadelphia: +Lancaster. I also would not be surprised if Allentown MSA comes back to Philly's fold. I think Trenton might be much harder to retake.
Phoenix: None. That said, as Phoenix keeps growing, it's northward boundary will assuredly cross over into Prescott's MSA
Portland: +Hood River, Clatsop (both OR)
Raleigh: +Wayne
Sacramento: +Butte, Colusa.
Salt Lake City: +Logan MSA
San Diego: None.
San Antonio: +Gillespie, Kerr (Kendall County's growing by 4% per year), Gonzales, Karnes, Frio
San Francisco: Modesto CSA and Salinas MSA
Seattle: +Kittitas and Jefferson
Tampa: +Citrus, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, De Soto, Hardee, Highlands. There's an outside chance Cape Coral/Fort Myers poaches Charlotte from Sarasota's MSA.
Washington: +King George (VA), Orange (VA), Madison (VA), Morgan (WV) (due to residual Hagerstown growth), Kent and Caroline (MD).Caroline County, VA is a wild card depending on Fredericksburg's growth patterns. As it's currently in Richmond's MSA, however, I think it's unlikely Washington can poach by 2038. The big prize is Baltimore adding York County (PA). That still seems like wishful thinking, however.
Greater LA is 18.7M of 2015 estimate.
By 2038 it would be at 25 million.
The growth is mainly in the Inland Empire of San Bern/Riverside counties where there is so much land available.
So..., Philadelphia will be relatively unchanged in the next 21 years?
I wait till Fall 2020 before I make my prediction that when next official census numbers will be release. I think Philly gain some population but not huge growth
Will this be before or after the Great Zombie Apocalypse of '38? Because that will seriously impact my prediction.
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