North America: What will be the population of your MSA/CSA (U.S.) or Metropolis (CAN/MEX) by 2038? [Prediction thread] (cost, state)

[Trafalgar Law]

What will be the population of your MSA/CSA by 2038?

This is a spinoff of a similar topic on another forum that asks people to predict what the population will be in their respective cities 20 years from now. I've modified it a little bit by excluding city-propers and keeping it solely to MSA and CSA metrics. In addition to that, 2038 is 21 years from now but with the 2017 population estimate tallies already in (they were finalized on July 1, 2017 - we will get the release next March), lets start from 2018 and go up to 2038.

This thread is for all participants of Canada, Mexico, and the United States to engage in.

For criteria, keep it to MSA and CSA and use the standard population growth factors, if you want, when making the assessment (demographics, age, location, economy, cost of living, so on).

[tman7117]

My area (the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Statistical area) is currently at 20.3 million and could easily see it hitting at least 25 million. May seem like an underestimate, but lots of young people are leaving the area due to the increasing, and already outrageous cost of living.

[585WNY]

If current trends continue, the Rochester, NY metropolitan area will be 1,235,068 in twenty years. About the size of metro New Orleans today and slightly larger than the projection for Buffalo-Niagara Falls, which would make it New York's second largest MSA, but dropping it from 51st to somewhere around 60-70th nationwide.

I think that's probably accurate, barring any unforeseen circumstances. Stagnation or slight growth seems to be the future of Western New York.

[CXT2000]

Metro Montreal keeps growing between 40-45K a year, and the metro keeps expanding as well. Right now the metro area is at 4.2M (Stats Can had an undercount + our metro grew). If the CMA stays the same, Montreal can hit 5.04M-5.145M within 20-21 years. Now there's also the expanded economic zone that some economists talk about and even some of my business teachers, which is between 4.8-5M today. In that case, if we absorb those areas, we can have between 5.64M-5.745M or 5.84M-5.945M. I'm also going to guess the Island of Montreal will reach 2.25-2.3M around this time & MTL retains being #9 or goes up to #8 largest city in N.A.

[EricNorthman]

Austin has got to slow down eventually so I'm going lower than growth rate of recent decades and guess a population of approxiamately 3.6 million, up from just over two million now.

[NigerianNightmare]

Houston will hit 10 million by 2038 or a few years later in the MSA. It's CSA is irrelevant to any discussion unless Beaumont, College-Station or Brennan get included in the CSA I don't see that being much more than 200,000-300,000 more people than the MSA.

[grega94]

I think that the Seattle metro area will add a few more counties such as Thurston County (Olympia) and Kitsap county (Bremerton) so I will say somewhere around 5.5 million

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by grega94

I think that the Seattle metro area will add a few more counties such as Thurston County (Olympia) and Kitsap county (Bremerton) so I will say somewhere around 5.5 million

Those are already part of the Seattle CSA.

[NigerianNightmare]

I think he means as part of the MSA.

[Trafalgar Law]

I fully expect there to be at minimum a 2-3 year window at some point in the next 20 years where the CSAs of Chicago, San Francisco, Washington DC, along with the GGH of Toronto are all bunched together with only 300,000 separating the largest from the smallest.

In the case of all four places, they will all be above 10 million. As will Dallas and Houston by 2038. With Miami and Atlanta in the high 8 millions and/or maybe low 9 millions range and poised to get into either the high 9 millions or cross the 10 millions by 2050 (so 12 years further than this thread). Could be sooner but it seems fluid.