Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
When is the last time you were in Durham? Now a couple of years ago, I would have definitely agreed with you but downtown Durham has come a long way since then; the progress has been impressive.
The thing with most metro areas with multiple urban cores, at least for those under about 3.5 million or so, is that you don't get the full metropolitan feel in the largest city due to the way the population is dispersed. However, with the rapid growth and infill happening in the Triangle, it won't be long before Raleigh will start to truly feel like a city that's representative of the larger metro.
Literally this week, Raleigh's new Union Station has its grand opening in the Warehouse District. Across the street is the massive Dillon project that rose out of the skin of another old warehouse. A block down from that project, the Morgan Street Food Hall nears completion. The Warehouse District is almost unrecognizable from what it was just a couple of years ago. In another year or so, and a few blocks to the north, the Smokey Hollow project will open along side of a newly rebuilt northern gateway into the city and a restored Devereux Meadows Park. That area too will be unrecognizable from what it has been and it will transform the experience of the Glenwood South district with, among other things, a walkable full service grocer. A new tower is about to start construction near the convention center and two more are on the near horizon just west of the capitol building. There are other significant projects being built or in the pipeline that will continue to transform all parts of downtown and immediately adjacent neighborhoods. It seems as if each new week brings news of yet another developer with deep pockets gobbling up contiguous tracts of land for redevelopment all around the core with prices seeming to escalate with each new assemblage. A lot is happening and there's a lot more to come. This is one of the advantages of being a rapidly growing and prosperous city and metro. Investments and change can and do happen.
When is the last time you were in Durham? Now a couple of years ago, I would have definitely agreed with you but downtown Durham has come a long way since then; the progress has been impressive.
The thing with most metro areas with multiple urban cores, at least for those under about 3.5 million or so, is that you don't get the full metropolitan feel in the largest city due to the way the population is dispersed. However, with the rapid growth and infill happening in the Triangle, it won't be long before Raleigh will start to truly feel like a city that's representative of the larger metro.
Some interesting stats about both areas...
Louisville CSA
5,547 sq/miles
1.5 million population
Raleigh/Durham CSA
5,511 sq/miles
2.2 million population
It's a safe bet that Raleigh/Durham will reach 3 million before Louisville hits 2 million. Also, Raleigh's downtown is more populated than downtown Louisville (according to the numbers I've recently looked up).
Downtown Louisville
4,800 residents
8.7 million sq/ft office
66,000 employees
4,800 hotel rooms
1.7 million sq/ft retail
Downtown Raleigh
7,800 residents
7.5 million sq/ft office
47,000 employees
1,300 hotel rooms
700-800k sq/ft retail
Louisville has a stronger downtown in almost every category, but it's NOT an NYC vs Podunk comparison at all. Louisville's downtown has a stronger visitors' appeal; the numbers above reflect that. However, downtown Raleigh is growing FAST and it won't be long at all before Raleigh has the stronger downtown here.
However, downtown Raleigh is growing FAST and it won't be long at all before Raleigh has the stronger downtown here.
Only way I can see that happening is if Raleigh’s Downtown development is similar to Seattle/Portland. But from what I’ve seen, it’s far from it. Not saying DT Raleigh won’t grow into something nice, it just wouldn’t be comparable to DT Louisville considering it continues to grow it’s already developed DT.
Only way I can see that happening is if Raleigh’s Downtown development is similar to Seattle/Portland. But from what I’ve seen, it’s far from it.
In what sense? I think I may know what you mean but don't want to assume anything.
But I agree that I'm not sure if I see Raleigh having a stronger downtown than Louisville anytime soon, but then again it depends on what the criteria is for being "stronger."
Only way I can see that happening is if Raleigh’s Downtown development is similar to Seattle/Portland. But from what I’ve seen, it’s far from it. Not saying DT Raleigh won’t grow into something nice, it just wouldn’t be comparable to DT Louisville considering it continues to grow it’s already developed DT.
I wouldn't bet against downtown Raleigh's future vis-a-vis Louisville's future metrics. Raleigh typically surpasses metric expectations. There's just that much happening now and in the pipeline. With a nearly 95% occupancy rate of current office space, there's nearly 1.2 ft2 more office space under construction or planned. Compare that to the 15.3% vacancy rate for DT Louisville, and it's easy to see Raleigh overtaking the office space metric sooner rather than later. The Downtown Raleigh Alliance latest report shows that DT has 8,500 residents: up by 35% just since 2015 and +179% since 2000 (while the city has grown nearly 60% in that same time frame). Following the residential explosion in DT, I expect to see an echo boom in retail to follow on the heels of current projects under construction that will deliver significant retail along with even more housing.
One metric where DT Raleigh will likely continue to lag Louisville would be in hotel rooms since the city doesn't really have a tourist component and the overall metro is decentralized with hotel options in the other cities and around RTP. There's simply no single event that can rival the Kentucky Derby that would create the demand for that many rooms.
*Raleigh data comes from the Downtown Raleigh Alliance "State of Downtown Raleigh" report.
*Louisville DT office vacancy data comes from Louisville Business First journal article dated Oct. 6, 2017.
In what sense? I think I may know what you mean but don't want to assume anything.
But I agree that I'm not sure if I see Raleigh having a stronger downtown than Louisville anytime soon, but then again it depends on what the criteria is for being "stronger."
I think the biggest hinderance is that the people moving to Raleigh and adding to its success are the type uninterested in a booming downtown. A lot of the population is from the Northeast metros of Philly/NYC/Boston, and they move to Raleigh for the slower pace of life, suburban environment, and ease of driving as opposed to living in a dense, older, urban city. When you're a city that attracts suburbanites who "escaped" the urban lifestyles of the northeast and want to own a big suburban home on a big lot away from the city, it's gonna be difficult to have a truly impressive downtown.
Louisville is an old river city full of dense housing stock. It already has the street grid and shotgun house density that Raleigh completely lacks. Downtown's footprint is quite large, it just needs to capitalize on it. Then outside the downtown, Germantown, the Highlands, Butchertown, Old Louisville, etc. all have dense residential areas and active business corridors.
If Raleigh can change its residents' mindsets, it has much more potential. It has the stronger economy, more influx of wealthy transplants, more educated/worldly individuals that are open to change, etc. Louisville has the footprint, but not the economy or attraction of outsiders to allow it to reach potential.
As of now, Louisville will stay ahead in terms of Downtown. If Raleigh changes its mindset, it can blow Louisville away.
Louisville CSA
5,547 sq/miles
1.5 million population
Raleigh/Durham CSA
5,511 sq/miles
2.2 million population
It's a safe bet that Raleigh/Durham will reach 3 million before Louisville hits 2 million. Also, Raleigh's downtown is more populated than downtown Louisville (according to the numbers I've recently looked up).
Downtown Louisville
4,800 residents
8.7 million sq/ft office
66,000 employees
4,800 hotel rooms
1.7 million sq/ft retail
Downtown Raleigh
7,800 residents
7.5 million sq/ft office
47,000 employees
1,300 hotel rooms
700-800k sq/ft retail
Louisville has a stronger downtown in almost every category, but it's NOT an NYC vs Podunk comparison at all. Louisville's downtown has a stronger visitors' appeal; the numbers above reflect that. However, downtown Raleigh is growing FAST and it won't be long at all before Raleigh has the stronger downtown here.
If you don't mind me asking, where do you get your numbers from for DT office space, DT hotel rooms, and DT retail space? I have been trying to research these stats for other cities but am having a hard time locating reliable data specifically for DT areas.
I wouldn't bet against downtown Raleigh's future vis-a-vis Louisville's future metrics. Raleigh typically surpasses metric expectations. There's just that much happening now and in the pipeline. With a nearly 95% occupancy rate of current office space, there's nearly 1.2 ft2 more office space under construction or planned. Compare that to the 15.3% vacancy rate for DT Louisville, and it's easy to see Raleigh overtaking the office space metric sooner rather than later. The Downtown Raleigh Alliance latest report shows that DT has 8,500 residents: up by 35% just since 2015 and +179% since 2000 (while the city has grown nearly 60% in that same time frame). Following the residential explosion in DT, I expect to see an echo boom in retail to follow on the heels of current projects under construction that will deliver significant retail along with even more housing.
One metric where DT Raleigh will likely continue to lag Louisville would be in hotel rooms since the city doesn't really have a tourist component and the overall metro is decentralized with hotel options in the other cities and around RTP. There's simply no single event that can rival the Kentucky Derby that would create the demand for that many rooms.
*Raleigh data comes from the Downtown Raleigh Alliance "State of Downtown Raleigh" report.
*Louisville DT office vacancy data comes from Louisville Business First journal article dated Oct. 6, 2017.
I was thinking that _OT was referring to the quality of urban development and not metrics which is why I asked for clarification. After all, there are several downtowns out there with more office space and hotel rooms than downtown Louisville which are less vibrant, pedestrian-friendly, etc. With that said, Raleigh is getting some quality urban development but with Louisville having had such a head start as a city, it will continue to have a more traditional urban feel with a more intact historic urban fabric. I guess I can understand what _OT was referring to now since quality urban development along with transit expansion, additional parks/square/open spaces, complete streets, etc. pretty much puts Portland and Seattle in the category as their more historic peers from a functional perspective and if that's the model that Raleigh commits to, it could equal or surpass Louisville here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jessemh431
I think the biggest hinderance is that the people moving to Raleigh and adding to its success are the type uninterested in a booming downtown. A lot of the population is from the Northeast metros of Philly/NYC/Boston, and they move to Raleigh for the slower pace of life, suburban environment, and ease of driving as opposed to living in a dense, older, urban city. When you're a city that attracts suburbanites who "escaped" the urban lifestyles of the northeast and want to own a big suburban home on a big lot away from the city, it's gonna be difficult to have a truly impressive downtown.
Louisville is an old river city full of dense housing stock. It already has the street grid and shotgun house density that Raleigh completely lacks. Downtown's footprint is quite large, it just needs to capitalize on it. Then outside the downtown, Germantown, the Highlands, Butchertown, Old Louisville, etc. all have dense residential areas and active business corridors.
If Raleigh can change its residents' mindsets, it has much more potential. It has the stronger economy, more influx of wealthy transplants, more educated/worldly individuals that are open to change, etc. Louisville has the footprint, but not the economy or attraction of outsiders to allow it to reach potential.
As of now, Louisville will stay ahead in terms of Downtown. If Raleigh changes its mindset, it can blow Louisville away.
Certainly it was the lure of the suburbs (in connection with good suburban jobs) that attracted the first wave of transplants to Raleigh but over time, as the focus across the country turned back to our urban cores, the same has happened in Raleigh with some notable improvements, such as Fayetteville Street, Raleigh's main street, being converted back to a two-way street for vehicular traffic several years ago after an attempt to turn it into a pedestrian mall failed. I think one thing that bodes well for downtown Raleigh going forward is that it is getting a lot of midrise/short highrise development which is having a structural densifying effect and is giving people more places to walk to. In terms of design, most have been solid but I especially like the new NC State Employee Credit Union HQ:
Downtown Raleigh is seeing a good bit of development which most seem to be unaware of, presumably because there have been no true skyline-altering developments since RBC Tower went up. But it's coming along nicely and there is substantial urban interest in downtown Raleigh. I think mindsets have already changed in Raleigh and elsewhere in the sense that while the suburbs will continue to receive the bulk of the transplants to the region (which is true for most metros and this is due to several interrelated factors that were put in motion via federal policy decades ago), those transplants still want a downtown they can be proud of. While they may not live there, many work and play there and they want a downtown that is vibrant, healthy, visually appealing, and overall successful. And as long as Raleigh continues to be a magnet for college graduates in particular, you can at least expect a swath of that group to continue to drive interest in urban living.
But you're certainly right about Louisville's advantage with is denser, more historic housing stock and especially its more extensive grid. You'd think Raleigh would have had at least a slightly more extensive regular grid system than it does now, considering the fact that it was a planned capital city but it's certainly not a surprise that the older, more industrial city has a larger one.
If you don't mind me asking, where do you get your numbers from for DT office space, DT hotel rooms, and DT retail space? I have been trying to research these stats for other cities but am having a hard time locating reliable data specifically for DT areas.
The easiest way is to search for local downtown blogs; they usually provide links to downtown advocacy groups. Another way is to search local newspapers/business news with key words such as "downtown population retail office". Most cities have some sort of "downtown alliance" group that monitors downtown stats annually (if it's a really fast growing downtown, you can expect quarterly reports). The only way to know that you've found credible info is to cross reference it with other sources.
In the case of Raleigh and Louisville, multiple sources gave similar numbers for each downtown. News reports is another way to cross reference what you find from a downtown alliance group (though the news usually reports what the downtown group told them to say).
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
