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Please take anything Wanderer says with a grain of salt, the poster is not a fan of Philadelphia. He/she reappears every few months on this site and another popular forum with "Philadelphia is dead" nonsense.
Philadelphia has definitely turned a corner for growth, rebirth, etc., but it has more competition these days, so city leaders need to up their game and become less reliant on organic growth.
And call me a homer, but Philadelphia feels more relevant today than it did in the early 2000s. So many positive trends to note such as a record amount of general development, population growth, notable sports accomplishments, a nationally unique cultural identity, rebirth of countless neighborhoods, landing events like the World Cup, MLB All Start Game, etc., a focal point for national elections, and the explosion of STEM related industries, specifically Life Sciences.
An anecdotal experience... I am connected with a lot people that recently relocated to Philadelphia from NYC, DC, Chicago, even Seattle and San Fran, mostly for work but also because they like the city, it's more affordable and remote work is possible. I guarantee 20 years ago that would not be the case for many reasons.
I see Philadelphia maintaining it's relevance in the coming years, and if the city plays its cards right it could emerge beyond that. Losing the #5 population spot is trivial IMO.
The real answer to this thread is most mid-size cities in the Mid-West.
Philadelphia isn’t as relevant this century as last century, when it was the third, fourth, and recently fifth largest city in America. Nowadays, people consider metro areas the true barometer of how big American cities and if that’s the case, then Atlanta and Miami are just as big as Philadelphia and May be bigger by 2030, that’s just facts according to the US Census. Last century, one could argue that Philadelphia was much more important because it was the fourth largest city and was the HQ for many banks and corporations, as well as the colleges and hospitals, but today Philadelphia has only two major companies HQ’d here. Also, the hospitals and universities are still world class but Boston has the edge when it comes to healthcare and to higher learning.
Lastly, I’d rather be a realist, or in your language a “hater” than one who calls himself a homer and sticks his head underground like an ostrich and claims that Philadelphia is still relevant as the 20th century when I’ve made the case that with the growth of Sunbelt cities, Philadelphia has to compete with more than just Boston, NYC, DC, and Chicago. The local politics in Philadelphia and PA leaves much to be desired, and if the politics go that route, then I don’t see how Philadelphia can be the same city that it was even in the late 20th century. It will still be a big city, but other cities will compete and if you can’t compete, then you can’t complain about the city’s problems neither!
I wouldn't say that this region is "stagnant." One of the things many observers of this region tout as an asset is what they call its "Goldilocks economy" — not too hot, not too cold, but just right.
When times are good, this city doesn't boom. The upside to this is: When times are bad, this city doesn't bust either.
I do, however, need to correct some things in the foregoing.
First, replace "and" with "or" between "population" and "economy." Actually, the construction should be "have surpassed Philadelphia either in population or economy."
And even then, the statement is not true, at least not yet, for both the Atlanta and Miami MSAs still trail Philadelphia on both metrics. IOW, the two you say have "especially" surpassed it are the two that have not. Of the four, only Houston outpaces Philadelphia on both metrics; the DFW Metroplex has a bigger economy but smaller population.
[energy is a boom-and-bust industry; I wouldn't tout that as a great strength, though Houston is indeed the undisputed center of that sector of the economy]
Boom or bust, Houston has a lock on energy when it comes to cities and Houston will be the home of ExxonMobil by next year when they move from Dallas. That similar to saying that NYC will fall if the stick markets fall or Detroit will fall (already fallen, but still) if the Big 3 don’t sell enough automobiles. But there’s a reason why Houston is as big as it is as well as the Bay Area, LA, Chicago, and NYC and it’s not just the air and water in those locales. Those cities and areas are bigger than Philadelphia because they all contain very robust economies!
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl
Like many Philadelphians, I think you underrate SEPTA here. People like to knock Philadelphia for its skeletal subway system — we got only one-sixth of the rapid transit lines the city approved back in 1913, and we're still trying to build one of those — but the two systems overall are close to each other in overall performance (fewer people ride the rails in Philadelphia than Boston but more ride the buses). I think the MBTA and SEPTA rank 5-6 in terms of total ridership.
As far as sports are concerned, been paying attention this year?
I think that what rankles some of us here may be a matter of semantics. It is true that in relative terms, Philadelphia doesn't rank as high as it used to in the hierarchy of cities, but "less relevant" implies something beyond relative (as opposed to absolute) decline. It seems to me that the city's and region's profile is as high as it's ever been, and it continues to be "relevant" on a number of fronts, economic, social and cultural (that last something that hasn't really been discussed in this thread because it's so difficult to quantify, but I'll give you a few markers to consider: John Coltrane, the Fabulous Philadelphians and "TSOP" (historical) and "Abbott Elementary" (current). Phoenix can't match either of those).
And SEPTA still operates what should’ve been one of the few bright spots of the area: a shadow of the old Pennsylvania and Reading railroads. One used to travel from Center City to Reading, Allentown, the Jersey Shore, and even as close as West Chester by rail but today it’s not the reality. It’s only fair to say that even CA (Bay Area and LA) have a much better commuter rail system than Philadelphia at this point and when South FL finishes the Tri Rail and Brightline expansions, then FL will join the club as having a better rail infrastructure than PA.
Like I said, Boston doesn’t have a perfect mass transit, in fact no city has a transit that’s perfect but Boston for it’s size (about 48 sq ft) has a mass transit system perfect for it’s size while Philadelphia doesn’t and when it comes to expanding it’s mass transit and it’s commuter rail systems, Boston is still expanding to Fall River and New Bedford in the commuter rail and to Tufts on the Green Line. There’s even talk about extending the Blue line to Lynn.
I hadn’t heard SEPTA even propose anything of that sort and the only time there was announcement of that sort was extending the BSL to the Navy Yard, which never happened, and the extension of the Purple line to KOP, which we’ll have to wait and see but a lot of the transit projects in and around Philadelphia have fallen flat ever since the hood old Schuylkill Valley Metro was proposed. I liked the idea but not the application of a light rail as heavy rail would’ve sufficed but that’s why transit projects have failed in Philadelphia because the powers that be don’t know what they want while other cities (Boston, DC, Bay Area, LA, and now Miami) have been staying on course and sticking to the plan on developing and expanding their rail systems.
Never heard Detroit being used as the poster city for maintaining clout despite a blow to the main industry before
In my mind Philadelphia was a 5-8 metro 20 years ago and it is a 5 to 8 metro now. None of that pack are vastly ahead of each other, so even assuming Philly jiggles between being 5 and 8 we are not talking major changes here.
Philadelphia is a very stable city. I would put money on it that SF and DC plateaus and that Philly will be looked at as being in the same tier again in your lifetime. Not in population but in relevance.
Population isn't everything. By next summer the DFW CSA should be passing the Boston-Providence CSA but Boston easily out influences DFW
It’s unimportant they drew Jacksonville’s city limit boundaries the way they did. The fact remains that it’s been of diminishing importance. I believe it used to legitimately be the largest metro area. It’s main draw to tourists is it’s closer than the Florida cities, but at the end of the day it offers a lot less. That area just doesn’t have as much going for it in terms of quality beaches and whatnot.
Jacksonville hasn't been the largest metro in Florida since the 1930s. Both Tampa and Miami surpassed it after air conditioning became widespread, and advancing technology made it easier to develop the swampy southern 2/3rds of Florida. I don't necessarily agree that what happened 90 years ago should constitute the benchmark for this thread.
I know I'm in the minority here but I think folks are disproportionately hard on JAX on City-Data. That top level city pop number doesn't do it any favors and is deceiving. Probably the best example of why city population should not be used for size comparisons. Jacksonville is the 39th largest metropolitan area. It's skyline is in proportion with other 1.6 million metro's. It's economic output performs well against it's peer metro's and is growing faster, and it's one fastest growing metro's in the country.
Is it becoming "less relevant" as it's population grows? Well that's obviously subjective and hard to measure. To me "less relevant" implies one of 2 things:
1. Other peer cities are becoming more relevant and surpassing JAX. In that case which ones, and how?
2. Major cities/metros are becoming so relevant they are absorbing "relevancy" from all smaller cities/metros. In which case all cities and metro's under a certain size are becoming less relevant by default. (I think if the premise of the thread is true this is the more likely option.)
I don't agree that with it's growth and economic development over the last 20 years that JAX has become less relevant. I think this is more a case of the social contagion and group think that happens on here, where certain cities are automatically written off without forum posters considering objective evidence first.
Never heard Detroit being used as the poster city for maintaining clout despite a blow to the main industry before
In my mind Philadelphia was a 5-8 metro 20 years ago and it is a 5 to 8 metro now. None of that pack are vastly ahead of each other, so even assuming Philly jiggles between being 5 and 8 we are not talking major changes here.
Philadelphia is a very stable city. I would put money on it that SF and DC plateaus and that Philly will be looked at as being in the same tier again in your lifetime. Not in population but in relevance.
Population isn't everything. By next summer the DFW CSA should be passing the Boston-Providence CSA but Boston easily out influences DFW
Dallas and Boston are two different cities. Boston is known for it’s higher education and healthcare and Dallas is known for it’s energy and corporate sectors. Both areas have strong economies.
Philadelphia is stable but stagnant. It’s grown about 5% in the 2020 Census but has dropped right back to about 1.58 million, a small drop from the 2020 census but a drop nonetheless.
It’s the early part of the 2020s and I don’t want to rush to judgement, but it looks like Philadelphia is following the trends of other Northern cities like NYC, Chicago, and Detroit. Also high taxes, high crime, and low school standards aren’t helping retain people as people migrate from Northern cities into Sunbelt cities.
It’s the early part of the 2020s and I don’t want to rush to judgement, but it looks like Philadelphia is following the trends of other Northern cities like NYC, Chicago, and Detroit. Also high taxes, high crime, and low school standards aren’t helping retain people as people migrate from Northern cities into Sunbelt cities.
You're cherry-picking the impacts of a major pandemic. Virtually every large city in the US lost population after March 2020. That's indisputable fact. There's also evidence that they've all regained the population that was lost, and then some, in the past couple of years. I'll take the resilience of cities like NYC, Chicago and Philadelphia over any Sun Belt boomtown.
The 2010s were generally a very good decade economically for all large US cities/metro areas, regardless of region. Philadelphia was certainly amongst those benefitting. You're painting an inaccurately negative narrative that is counter to the objective reality.
I really don't take anyone making bets on future population trends seriously, as literally no one can predict what happens next as we enter the most unpredictable era in modern history.
Population, jobs, migration, investment trends--all of these, I believe, are going to be turned on their head over the next several decades due to climate change, record-breaking low birth rates across the globe, an aging population, and a shrinking workforce. We're in for a tumultuous ride. I'm on board with the most time-tested cities.
We don't talk about city limits much so I had to double check, but yes Dallas is still in there.
Houston is 4,
Phoenix 5,
Philly 6,
SA 7,
SD 8,
Dallas 9,
San Jose 10,
Austin 11
Jax 12
Fort Worth 13.
Looks like every city in the top 10 lost population except SA and Phoenix. So San Jose should not be a poll option. If it continued to drop like the estimate for 2020 to 2021 it should be out of the top 10 by now.
Did covid really do that bad of a number on cities or were they overestimated? With the exception of a few the list is almost all red.
We don't talk about city limits much so I had to double check, but yes Dallas is still in there.
Houston is 4,
Phoenix 5,
Philly 6,
SA 7,
SD 8,
Dallas 9,
San Jose 10,
Austin 11
Jax 12
Fort Worth 13.
Looks like every city in the top 10 lost population except SA and Phoenix. So San Jose should not be a poll option. If it continued to drop like the estimate for 2020 to 2021 it should be out of the top 10 by now.
Did covid really do that bad of a number on cities or were they overestimated? With the exception of a few the list is almost all red.
This topic is super subjective. Just off of those numbers the argument could be made that SA & Phoenix are the most "relevant" right now lol.
I saw this a while ago and thought it was interesting, granted it's city not metro, but still.
The U.S. cities with biggest numeric population growth from 2020 to 2021:
San Antonio, 13,626
Phoenix, 13,224
Fort Worth, 12,916
Port St. Lucie, 10,771
North Las Vegas, 9,917
San Francisco seems like it's doing BAD post covid. Almost -7% in one year is crazy. NYC pushing -3.82% and San Jose -2.94%. Los Angeles not faring as bad as I would have expected but I guess size plays a role too, -1.27%.
We don't talk about city limits much so I had to double check, but yes Dallas is still in there.
Houston is 4,
Phoenix 5,
Philly 6,
SA 7,
SD 8,
Dallas 9,
San Jose 10,
Austin 11
Jax 12
Fort Worth 13.
Looks like every city in the top 10 lost population except SA and Phoenix. So San Jose should not be a poll option. If it continued to drop like the estimate for 2020 to 2021 it should be out of the top 10 by now.
Did covid really do that bad of a number on cities or were they overestimated? With the exception of a few the list is almost all red.
Remember, we're just two years off an actual count of the population, and the estimates are relative to that benchmark. I think that what the recent decennial censuses show is that if anything, the estimates tend to underestimate city population growth slightly,
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