Which city is becoming less relevant as its population increases? (Phoenix, metro)
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I don't see that happening anytime soon, decades if it ever does. People underestimate how fast SA is growing and Austin is running into a lot of issues of its own (infrastructure problems, insane COL for what it is, tech industry not looking so hot right now)
I agree. Austin grew almost twice as fast but it's not enough to cover the gap that already existed. SA is still 300k ahead of Austin and still growing fast so it will take at least 3 decades for Austin to catch up to SA if Austin maintains its breakneck pace of growth.
2010-2020 growth:
Austin 33% or 550k growth
Houston 20.3% or 1200K growth
San Antonio 19.4% or 400k growth
Dallas-Fort 18.8% or 1200k growth
I feel like it’s the poster child of growing but not fast enough to keep its position.
Maybe Cincinnati?
Please take anything Wanderer says with a grain of salt, the poster is not a fan of Philadelphia. He/she reappears every few months on this site and another popular forum with "Philadelphia is dead" nonsense.
Philadelphia has definitely turned a corner for growth, rebirth, etc., but it has more competition these days, so city leaders need to up their game and become less reliant on organic growth.
And call me a homer, but Philadelphia feels more relevant today than it did in the early 2000s. So many positive trends to note such as a record amount of general development, population growth, notable sports accomplishments, a nationally unique cultural identity, rebirth of countless neighborhoods, landing events like the World Cup, MLB All Start Game, etc., a focal point for national elections, and the explosion of STEM related industries, specifically Life Sciences.
An anecdotal experience... I am connected with a lot people that recently relocated to Philadelphia from NYC, DC, Chicago, even Seattle and San Fran, mostly for work but also because they like the city, it's more affordable and remote work is possible. I guarantee 20 years ago that would not be the case for many reasons.
I see Philadelphia maintaining it's relevance in the coming years, and if the city plays its cards right it could emerge beyond that. Losing the #5 population spot is trivial IMO.
The real answer to this thread is most mid-size cities in the Mid-West.
Please take anything Wanderer says with a grain of salt, the poster is not a fan of Philadelphia. He/she reappears every few months on this site and another popular forum with "Philadelphia is dead" nonsense. I don't read his/her posts anymore.
Philadelphia has definitely turned a corner for growth, rebirth, etc., but it has more competition these days, so city leaders need to up their game and become less reliant on organic growth.
And call me a homer, but Philadelphia feels more relevant today than it did in the early 2000s. So many positive trends to note such as a record amount of general development, population growth, notable sports accomplishments, a nationally unique cultural identity, rebirth of countless neighborhoods, landing events like the World Cup, MLB All Start Game, etc., a focal point for national elections, and the explosion of STEM related industries, specifically Life Sciences.
An anecdotal experience... I am connected with a lot people that recently relocated to Philadelphia from NYC, DC, Chicago, even Seattle and San Fran, mostly for work but also because they like the city, it's more affordable and remote work is possible. I guarantee if this were 20 years ago that would not be the case for many reasons.
In summary, I see Philadelphia maintaining it's relevance in the coming years, and if the city plays its cards right it could emerge beyond that. Losing the #5 population spot is trivial IMO.
The real answer to this thread is most mid-size cities in the Mid-West.
In like 1987 I think it would be an unrivaled number 4 behind NYC, Chicago, LA.
Today I think it’s a stretch to call Philly #6. And you could argue it’s as low as number 8 or 9.
It’s pretty obvious that it’s fell back from the primate city club into the pack with Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston and Miami. Which are 6-10.
Philly is the poster child for growing but not fast enough to keep pace.
Other than Cincinnati; Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh are smaller than they were in 1990 and thus not relevant to this tread.
Phoenix isn't a trendy city like it was in the 20th century. I remember the 90s when I switched schools almost every year because the school district couldn't keep up with the population boom and the districts were redrawn. I haven't heard of scenarios like that in our sprawling suburbs since the 21st century, though one of the other Zonies can correct me.
Let's remember that NYC wasn't all that trendy in the 80s and 90s. But it is now. If this forum existed during the 90s I bet Phoenix would've been a lot more desirable than NYC. Truth is Millennials like myself are fighting against their suburban roots, and Phoenix is practically the image in the pictonary for suburbs. Being "untrendy" means you get hated on. Phoenix is trying to change this, but it fights a lot of negative bias. Phoenix has always been the sheep for terrible development, even though we got it from Los Angeles. Phoenix also gets negative attention for a lot of things, making it an easy target.
Truth is Phoenix needs some good PR, but we aren't "irrelevant". We are just "relevant" for the wrong reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
Until y'all start having kids.
Four years later and this still hasn't changed. Phoenix is experiencing brain drain because it cannot keep up with other cities and for the record, it can, there's just no will amongst its residents to implement these things because they have in fact voted for some of these things and due to political corruption were never implemented. Long-term residents and even the infamous 5-year long transients that AZ gets plenty of have left or moved far out of town because they'd rather take on a defeatist attitude rather than protesting after being disappointed by their state and local governments on honoring their word. This is why the transients move after about 5 years, instead of after their first "dry heat", because the weather isn't the issue. The issue is a lack of progression and just the "same old same old" formula with no signs of changing for what the future holds, only what has worked in the past.
Phoenix in 2023 was supposed to have a Capitol Line light rail that was VOTED AND APPROVED by City residents. It got lobbied out and nuked. So did the few other light rail lines that were also VOTED AND APPROVED by City residents.
Arizona being purple now is an improvement (the politics of this place have never been an accurate representation of most natives and locals, coming from one and knowing many) but we are not able to turn back time and rectify the corruption that has been done on residents trying and being oppressed by corrupt corporate lobbying that they've simply given up and stopped voting, and the damage it has been done to Phoenix over these decades in terms of it's inability to compete with cities who choose to plan to invest, and actually honor those plans to invest. Voters have made it clear on what they want and when the government chooses to outright ignore it of course people get unhappy and leave.
For the record this is not unique to Phoenix but other cities have been better at repair and restoration. Phoenix has been controlled by outsiders for far too long, almost all of its politicians have been outsiders particularly some of its most notorious and anyone who has actually lived in Phoenix long-term thinking Arizona has been some conservative haven has been under a rock and been ok with having rural Arizona having a significant influence of what gets done in metro limits where they often spend ZERO time in except once a year to fly out of Sky Harbor or to leech off of water utilities from a metro it continues to undermine but wants its water rights from without paying for any piping or water quality improvements.
If Phoenix wants to compete in the league it has a population for then it needs to actually make investments and honor them. Arizona has the poorest town in the country and if it did not have the City of Phoenix the state would be as poor as Mississippi. Spending time outside of Phoenix makes this obvious. However this only shows that Arizona needs to actually invest in Phoenix, not ignore it, because it is Arizona's saving grace. Continuing to only invest in suburbs and car-centric real estate developer lobbying and leave Phoenix to disarray will only hurt it and show to people that the power is still in the hands of people stuck in their ways rather than looking ahead at other states and cities that are improving and what they are doing to achieve that success.
And believe me that it is not a high bar. Texas cannot even reliably provide an electrical grid in the modern era and is still achieving success.
In like 1987 I think it would be an unrivaled number 4 behind NYC, Chicago, LA.
Today I think it’s a stretch to call Philly #6. And you could argue it’s as low as number 8 or 9.
It’s pretty obvious that it’s fell back from the primate city club into the pack with Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston and Miami. Which are 6-10.
Philly is the poster child for growing but not fast enough to keep pace.
Other than Cincinnati; Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh are smaller than they were in 1990 and thus not relevant to this tread.
Ah, I forgot the population growth part. My answer is Phoenix then.
But it's not solely that Philadelphia fell back, but also that cities caught up. The late 1980s-2010(ish) were harder times for Philadelphia, but measuring from ~2022, I see a positive trajectory in terms of rebirth and relevance, and many stats, recent/upcoming events, and new development solidify that idea. It's also clear that Dallas, Atlanta, and Houston are not immune to slower growth, big city issues, and image issues.
Ah, I forgot the population growth part. My answer is Phoenix then.
But it's not solely that Philadelphia fell back, but also that cities caught up. The late 1980s-2010(ish) were harder times for Philadelphia, but measuring from ~2022, I see a positive trajectory in terms of rebirth and relevance, and many stats, recent/upcoming events, and new development solidify that idea. It's also clear that Dallas, Atlanta, and Houston are not immune to slower growth, big city issues, and image issues.
We can agree to disagree though.
Well yeah it’s about cities who are making progress but not fast enough.
The fact Philly has lost ground compared to other cities (like Dallas, Atlanta, Boston, Houston, Miami) while growing itself is the kind of city that belongs on this thread.
Unless you believe it putting more distance between it and Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland etc and itself makes up for it, but I don’t think it does.
And, oddly enough, this may also be why it's under the radar.
Semiconductors, of course, are the basic building block of all computers. But being dominant in the manufacture of semiconductors is sort of like being the center of brickmaking. That city becomes indispensable to the people who build the buildings, but people pay attention to the buildings rather than the bricks they're made of.
I pointed out upthread that Pittsburgh is forging its future on robotics. Yet this was in response to someone who still had in their head the image of it as a center for steelmaking. Looks like I had the same image in my head of Phoenix: Arizona in general gained a reputation as a place people went to retire because of its agreeable climate ("yes, but it's a dry heat"), but its biggest city developed a manufacturing sector while that was happening.
Well there’s also the fact that is city nerds pay more mind to this than necessary. Regardless, yes semiconductors is something that’s more under the radar than anything. But here’s the thing about that… Phoenix isn’t a place people think about… like at all, so people don’t even know what’s going on over there. Taiwan is known as a semiconductor juggernaut despite what you said. Taiwan being a somewhat known place led people to know of it as a place known for its semiconductor manufacturing. If Phoenix were a place that’s actually on peoples minds, then I’m sure it would be more associated there. And would have the Taiwan effect.
Well there’s also the fact that is city nerds pay more mind to this than necessary. Regardless, yes semiconductors is something that’s more under the radar than anything. But here’s the thing about that… Phoenix isn’t a place people think about… like at all, so people don’t even know what’s going on over there. Taiwan is known as a semiconductor juggernaut despite what you said. Taiwan being a somewhat known place led people to know of it as a place known for its semiconductor manufacturing. If Phoenix were a place that’s actually on peoples minds, then I’m sure it would be more associated there. And would have the Taiwan effect.
TBH while Taiwan is more known for semiconductor now it is also known for computer hardware related company from Acer/Asus to Gigabyte/MSI.
Which brings this point back:
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl
Semiconductors, of course, are the basic building block of all computers. But being dominant in the manufacture of semiconductors is sort of like being the center of brickmaking. That city becomes indispensable to the people who build the buildings, but people pay attention to the buildings rather than the bricks they're made of..
Taiwan doesn't fly under the radar as much as it has both the brick (semiconductor) and the finished product (computer, personal electronics, etc.).
That being said, Phoenix definitely fly under the radar for semiconductor industry - TSMC is heading there alongside those existing Intel fabs.
As for Phoenix overall - it's more of a case where its increase in relevancy came nowhere close to its increase in population - i.e. despite its metro population now being close to 5M it feels more like a 3M metro aka the like of Twin Cities.
P.S. My vote went to Jacksonville. Tampa is technically another one I can think of in terms of, but it's more flying under the radar more than anything.
I don’t care how under the radar it is. Atleast Phoenix has the semiconductor scene going for itself. If we are talking about economies, San Antonio consistently gets outpaced by its Texas peers. Houston and DFW seem to get atleast 2 new F500 companies a year these days. Austin transformed itself into a talent pool for silicon valley companies. San Antonio isn’t obsolete as it has the automotive industry, USAA, the military etc. but it does seem to really get outpaced by it’s peers. And a lot of San Antonio’s economy has been in place for decades. Jacksonville has a similar situation. Those are the answers in my book
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