States poised to be undergoing a paradigm shift within the next 3-4 decades: new top city (bigger, cons)
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Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR MSA: 738,344 +5.51% from 2010 to 2017 est.
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO MSA: 537,463 +16.03%
Extrapolating those current growth rates forward puts the lines-crossing date around 2040.
Similar to CLT vs RDU, a polycentric/multipolar metro could overtake a unipolar metro in size. Any one downtown within RDU will always feel smaller than Uptown Charlotte, even if the combination ends up larger.
2. Another CSA debate could arise if Orlando's CSA somehow swallows Tampa-St. Pete, putting faster-growing Central Florida in contention with South Florida.
3. Another recent-ish example within the Top 10 Metros: DFW metro surpassed Houston metro in 1990, even though both have certainly grown quickly since, and that state is certainly big enough for the two of 'em.
yes but Cuyahoga County OH is big its 477sq miles. So comparing Independent Cities like Baltimore or Boston (pretty close Suffolk County is smaller than the City of Cleveland) is just silly.
There are counties that are just as close to Boston or Baltimore that are not in their MSA's. There are places 18-19 miles from Baltimore and Boston that are not in the Metro.
Yeah, going back to the premise of this thread, there are places where one side of a road is Cleveland. Across the street is Akron.
Maybe it's the same thing out east, but what does that have to do with this? Again, doesnt really matter whether NE Ohio is one, or two, or four metros. The population is what it is and cite all the commuter patterns you want, but Cleveland is the alpha city of highly populated region. It's not even debatable.
You have Raleigh and Durham in NC as another example.
True, it's also another example of a former metro Raleigh-Durham being divided into 2 metros. Again, it's not Raleigh lost all those people from decline and relocations.
Also, Raleigh's MSA is about 1,275,000 so it's kinda like the Springfield MA-Hartford CT example.
yes but Cuyahoga County OH is big its 477sq miles. So comparing Independent Cities like Baltimore or Boston (pretty close Suffolk County is smaller than the City of Cleveland) is just silly.
There are counties that are just as close to Boston or Baltimore that are not in their MSA's. There are places 18-19 miles from Baltimore and Boston that are not in the Metro.
What counties contiguous to Suffolk County MA are not included in Boston's MSA? Also, the size of the county or city or whatever this is related to, doesn't matter.
True, it's also another example of a former metro Raleigh-Durham being divided into 2 metros. Again, it's not Raleigh lost all those people from decline and relocations.
Also, Raleigh's MSA is about 1,275,000 so it's kinda like the Springfield MA-Hartford CT example.
As of 2017, it was actually 60,000 more than that (1.335M), with the lion's share of the MSA just being Raleigh's core county. The 2018 MSA number will likely be in the 1.365M neighborhood.
For Raleigh to pass Charlotte's MSA, two things need to happen. The first is the reunification of the pre 2003 Raleigh-Durham MSA. As it stands, the statistical MSA structure diminishes what's really happening in the Triangle. The truth is that the Triangle, as led by Raleigh's explosive growth has been climbing the ranks within the state and nationally for a few decades now. There was a time not long ago that the Triangle was third fiddle in NC behind both Charlotte and the Triad of Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem. In the last few decades, the Triangle has left the Triad in the dust. Even so, Charlotte has also explosively grown in the same time period.
The second thing needed would be an accelerator sort of economic boom. A previous post has already mentioned that Raleigh is a finalist for Amazon HQ2. That is the sort of accelerator that would make a difference. Wake County is also courting a huge Apple expansion as well on its side of Research Triangle Park.
Could both of these things happen in the coming decades? Yes they could. Will they happen? I don't know, but time will tell.
What counties contiguous to Suffolk County MA are not included in Boston's MSA? Also, the size of the county or city or whatever this is related to, doesn't matter.
Yes it does because Norfolk County or Middlesex County have towns that directly border Boston, Baltimore County county compkely envelops Baltimore.
If a city that’s 2.5x larger than Cleveland’s MSA ends 18 miles from the city center so can Cleveland’s.
It’s not unfair or unusual. It’s just a fact that cities influence don’t go out radially there are other factors. That include other cities commuter and social spheres that truncate the sphere of influence.
A lot of people here, particularly the Cleveland guys, seen to missing a critical consideration outlined by the OP:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric
States poised to be undergoing a paradigm shift: new largest cities
Please discuss and converse on which state you think is most likely to see the same sort of transition from its current top city to another top city in the decades to come. Please explain the reasons as to why this would be a possibility. Factors such as economic, logistical, social, political, and demographic could be used to make an argument as well as other possibilities that are not mentioned here.
The paradigm shift occurring in Ohio isn't solely based on the decline/reorder of population in Cleveland. To be sure, Cleveland is the only one losing residents while Cincinnati and Columbus are gaining residents, and that is absolutely worth mentioning. Economically, politically, demographically, and socially, Columbus in particular has risen in esteem in the same period Cleveland has seen its influence decline in those areas, while Cincinnati has seen a return of sorts to a more prominent standing in the state (eg maybe 30 years ago Cleveland was widely seen as an order above Cincy, nowadays either that separation has disappeared and/or Cincinnati has overtaken Cleveland; Cincy certainly has overtaken Cleveland as an economic base)...
This isn't solely based on population, and it's hard to argue that Cleveland hasn't lost influence across the board, tying directly into the topic--a paradigm shift in Ohio. I'm not arguing that Cleveland without a doubt still isn't #1 (though in my opinion, it isn't), but it's pretty inarguable that the evidence of a paradigm shift is in Ohio and that Cleveland isn't Ohio's biggest draw across the board anymore...population is only one aspect of looking at this, and can be defined/redistributed however one feels, as we clearly see it's the only aspect the Cleveland Faithful is interested in discussing...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamms
True, it's also another example of a former metro Raleigh-Durham being divided into 2 metros. Again, it's not Raleigh lost all those people from decline and relocations.
Also, Raleigh's MSA is about 1,275,000 so it's kinda like the Springfield MA-Hartford CT example.
No, it's the same example. Regardless, there are many places around the country where there are separations of MSAs that otherwise could be considered one, or defined MSAs that have clear cultural divisions within*. Cleveland is hardly the only place in the country like this, but the fact is that all MSAs are defined with the same criteria/data set...
*in a sort of "reverse Cleveland" scenario, the defined Hampton Roads MSA isn't the most accurate depiction of the area, which functions more as a CSA (indicative of a larger connected region rather than a true metropolitan area) than an MSA in reality. There's the Peninsula, and there's the Southside, functionally two separate metropolitan centers. Just as there are functionally Celeveland suburbs in the defined Akron MSA, I'm illustrating there are circumstances like these around the nation...
Quote:
Originally Posted by paytonc
1. How about Arkansas?
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR MSA: 738,344 +5.51% from 2010 to 2017 est.
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO MSA: 537,463 +16.03%
Extrapolating those current growth rates forward puts the lines-crossing date around 2040.
Similar to CLT vs RDU, a polycentric/multipolar metro could overtake a unipolar metro in size. Any one downtown within RDU will always feel smaller than Uptown Charlotte, even if the combination ends up larger.
2. Another CSA debate could arise if Orlando's CSA somehow swallows Tampa-St. Pete, putting faster-growing Central Florida in contention with South Florida.
3. Another recent-ish example within the Top 10 Metros: DFW metro surpassed Houston metro in 1990, even though both have certainly grown quickly since, and that state is certainly big enough for the two of 'em.
This is good:
1. NW Arkansas could eventually overtake Central Arkansas as the center of Arkansas' gravity, not only because it will likely pass it in population at some point, but the area has seen an increasing relevance on the Arkansas political, social, and economic fields...
Even still, I think Little Rock city will always be considered individually a greater city than any NW Arkansaa city...
2. I definitely think the combo Central Florida vs South Florida is a real thing...
3. DFW has long been (as you noted ~30 years now) the larger metro of the two, but I think in the minds of many, Houston still stands as the most influential city of the two (Dallas and Houston). Do you think Dallas has overtaken Houston in other areas?
This combined with the fact that Madison is generally seen as more economically stable than Milwaukee might mean continued high growth in Madison for years to come. State capitals and college towns in the Midwest seem to continue to be attracting people to them for this reason.
The ONLY factor that might slow down the decreasing gap is that Milwaukee is starting to see more investments in the downtown area. If they can capitalize on that, it might allow them keep their lead.
Their growth rates are quite different, but it's still something like a century away if both places keep adding people the way they do now.
One thing that'd probably help attract people to downtown is if Metra commuter rail went to downtown Milwaukee so that there's somewhat frequent and relatively inexpensive travel for commutes.
A lot of people here, particularly the Cleveland guys, seen to missing a critical consideration outlined by the OP:
The paradigm shift occurring in Ohio isn't solely based on the decline/reorder of population in Cleveland. To be sure, Cleveland is the only one losing residents while Cincinnati and Columbus are gaining residents, and that is absolutely worth mentioning. Economically, politically, demographically, and socially, Columbus in particular has risen in esteem in the same period Cleveland has seen its influence decline in those areas, while Cincinnati has seen a return of sorts to a more prominent standing in the state (eg maybe 30 years ago Cleveland was widely seen as an order above Cincy, nowadays either that separation has disappeared and/or Cincinnati has overtaken Cleveland; Cincy certainly has overtaken Cleveland as an economic base)...
This isn't solely based on population, and it's hard to argue that Cleveland hasn't lost influence across the board, tying directly into the topic--a paradigm shift in Ohio. I'm not arguing that Cleveland without a doubt still isn't #1 (though in my opinion, it isn't), but it's pretty inarguable that the evidence of a paradigm shift is in Ohio and that Cleveland isn't Ohio's biggest draw across the board anymore...population is only one aspect of looking at this, and can be defined/redistributed however one feels, as we clearly see it's the only aspect the Cleveland Faithful is interested in discussing...
No, it's the same example. Regardless, there are many places around the country where there are separations of MSAs that otherwise could be considered one, or defined MSAs that have clear cultural divisions within*. Cleveland is hardly the only place in the country like this, but the fact is that all MSAs are defined with the same criteria/data set...
*in a sort of "reverse Cleveland" scenario, the defined Hampton Roads MSA isn't the most accurate depiction of the area, which functions more as a CSA (indicative of a larger connected region rather than a true metropolitan area) than an MSA in reality. There's the Peninsula, and there's the Southside, functionally two separate metropolitan centers. Just as there are functionally Celeveland suburbs in the defined Akron MSA, I'm illustrating there are circumstances like these around the nation...
This is good:
1. NW Arkansas could eventually overtake Central Arkansas as the center of Arkansas' gravity, not only because it will likely pass it in population at some point, but the area has seen an increasing relevance on the Arkansas political, social, and economic fields...
Even still, I think Little Rock city will always be considered individually a greater city than any NW Arkansaa city...
2. I definitely think the combo Central Florida vs South Florida is a real thing...
3. DFW has long been (as you noted ~30 years now) the larger metro of the two, but I think in the minds of many, Houston still stands as the most influential city of the two (Dallas and Houston). Do you think Dallas has overtaken Houston in other areas?
My point is really geared to the fact that, in Ohio at least, the rise of CIN and COL to #1 and #2 is due more to reconfiguration of Cleveland's MSA and not because of a Cleveland MSA population collapse. Cleveland's MSA has only recently been in decline, and not by a huge amount of people either. CIN and CLE both had stagnant MSA growith for the most part and CIN's has been growing at a stronger pace just recently.
Good news for Cleveland's CSA though, it just picked-up about 116,000 with the addition of Wayne County. Now estimated to be about 3,600,000+.
And before anyone starts sqwauking about the distances in Cleveland's CSA, look at the distance of far flung locales in the CIN and COL MSAs. Consider the sizes of OH's big 3 MSAs:
CIN: 2,114,580 in 4,808 square miles
CIN's CSA only adds an additional 90,000 to its MSA
COL: 2,078,725 in 3,169 square miles
COL CSA adds about 400,000
CLE: 2,055,000 in 1,029 square miles
CLE's CSA is now about 3,630,000
Instead of writing Cleveland off, the entire NEO area, of which Cleveland is the hub, exceeds 4,500,000+. Stagnant population growth and sprawl are big factors here.
All of the OH 3C are competing with each other and other midwest cities for a currently limited pool of in-staters and limited adjacent state residents. The midwest needs to step up national and international residents relocating or within the 30-40 years mentioned in this post, they'll all be mid-to-lower ranked MSAs.
My point is really geared to the fact that, in Ohio at least, the rise of CIN and COL to #1 and #2 is due more to reconfiguration of Cleveland's MSA and not because of a Cleveland MSA population collapse. Cleveland's MSA has only recently been in decline, and not by a huge amount of people either. CIN and CLE both had stagnant MSA growith for the most part and CIN's has been growing at a stronger pace just recently.
Good news for Cleveland's CSA though, it just picked-up about 116,000 with the addition of Wayne County. Now estimated to be about 3,600,000+.
And before anyone starts sqwauking about the distances in Cleveland's CSA, look at the distance of far flung locales in the CIN and COL MSAs. Consider the sizes of OH's big 3 MSAs:
CIN: 2,114,580 in 4,808 square miles
CIN's CSA only adds an additional 90,000 to its MSA
COL: 2,078,725 in 3,169 square miles
COL CSA adds about 400,000
CLE: 2,055,000 in 1,029 square miles
CLE's CSA is now about 3,630,000
Instead of writing Cleveland off, the entire NEO area, of which Cleveland is the hub, exceeds 4,500,000+. Stagnant population growth and sprawl are big factors here.
where are you getting 1029 sq miles for the Cleveland MSA
Lake=227
Geauga=400
Cuyahoga=457
Lorain=491
Medina=421
That 1996 sq miles.
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