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We have a 50/50 shot at getting one of the final two MLS franchises.
No.
Sacramento will be competing with 11 other cities; Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Raleigh, Saint Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Charlotte for the final MLS expansion team.
Austin is getting team #27, the MLS decided to keep the Columbus Crew SC in Columbus where they belong and admit Austin into the league instead by expansion. This is after already awarding expansions to Nashville and Cincinnati.
The odds are that somewhere other than Sacramento gets the final expansion MLS team and that Sacramento will remain a one-team market. This is also MLS' last expansion for a very long time.
Sacramento will be competing with 11 other cities; Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Raleigh, Saint Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Charlotte for the final MLS expansion team.
Austin is getting team #27, the MLS decided to keep the Columbus Crew SC in Columbus where they belong and admit Austin into the league instead by expansion. This is after already awarding expansions to Nashville and Cincinnati.
The odds are that somewhere other than Sacramento gets the final expansion MLS team and that Sacramento will remain a one-team market. This is also MLS' last expansion for a very long time.
So you've revealed that you are only marginally following expansion efforts lol. Haha Austin hasn't been awarded a damn thing...
Admittedly, 50/50 is on the optimistic side for Sacramento, but we are on the short list. This link about how St. Louis recalibrated its bid, even mentions Sacramento as a frontrunner, and this is from a week ago:
Soccer Stadium Digest currently ranks Sacramento with the 6th-best odds of the 11 cities bidding for expansion. This article was published today---Indianapolis, Raleigh, and Pittsburgh are no longer in the running, and haven't been for over a half-year. Even still, Sacramento is spoken of very favorably:
I've been following MLS expansion efforts for over a year now. These things are fluid and the order of who has the "hot" hand has changed several times and is subject to change instantly. Austin has emerged as the leading bidder just this summer; St. Louis was dead and buried a year and a half ago; Sacramento was a top three candidate a year ago. These things aren't concrete and if you'd been following, you wouldn't be so sure Austin is a lock for expansion. Austin is the leader in the clubhouse right now and wasn't even on the radar a year-plus ago...
Sacramento very well might miss out on a team. So will a bunch of other cities, but Sacramento has been in the conversation for several years. The lack of a big investor is the only thing keeping us behind any city, including Austin, as everything else aligns with what MLS is looking for...
By the way, you've done nothing to substantiate your earlier commentary of Sacramento as a "small market"...
So you've revealed that you are only marginally following expansion efforts lol. Haha Austin hasn't been awarded a damn thing...
This is the official MLS statement on the Columbus and Austin situation:
Quote:
Friday, MLS provided an update regarding Columbus Crew SC and the potential club in Austin, Texas:
MLS Statement on Columbus
"Major League Soccer and the Columbus Partnership have been working together for several months on a plan to keep Crew SC in Columbus and we have made significant progress.
"Recently, the Haslam Family – along with the Columbus-based Edwards Family, have joined the effort to keep Crew SC in Columbus.
"MLS, the Columbus Partnership and the investor group all agree that for the club to be successful in Columbus, it requires strong local partners, long-term corporate support, a strong season ticket base and long-term plans for a stadium, practice facilities and associated sites.
"MLS is committed to keeping Crew SC in Columbus should we continue to make progress on these critical components and agree to key terms with the investor group.
"MLS recognizes the cooperation Precourt Sports Ventures has demonstrated throughout the process to date.
"MLS also remains very committed to PSV’s plan to launch an MLS club in Austin and is excited for Austin to become a great addition to MLS. We will continue to work with PSV and the City of Austin on the timing around the launch of Austin FC."
MLS Statement on Austin
"Major League Soccer is excited to move forward in Austin with Precourt Sports Ventures and their vision for Austin FC. Regardless of any scenario in Columbus, there is a clear path forward for PSV to operate Austin FC as a Major League Soccer club.
"The strong support from Austin’s corporate community, government officials and passionate soccer fans is impressive. Austin is a flourishing, dynamic city that presents a great opportunity for MLS, and we look forward to finalizing plans to become the first major league team in the capital of Texas.
"While timing for Austin FC is still to be finalized, we are confident that the team will begin play no later than 2021 at the new, privately financed stadium and soccer park at McKalla Place. We applaud the Austin community, city leaders and Precourt Sports Ventures for their commitment to making this happen."
Admittedly, 50/50 is on the optimistic side for Sacramento, but we are on the short list.
More like 1/12.
Sacramento has a 1 in 12 chance of getting the last expansion slot. It has to compete with much larger markets like Detroit, Phoenix, Tampa and a much richer and more desirable market like San Diego.
Quote:
Originally Posted by murksiderock
Austin has emerged as the leading bidder just this summer
Wrong.
Austin never made a bid for MLS expansion. Anthony Precourt, the person that owns the Columbus Crew is looking to relocate his team to Austin, already has secured the site, gained city-council approval, trademarked the Austin FC name under the MLS (actually the MLS office trademarked it for him), and got the stadium construction financing to move ahead. The team was to be relocated by February of 2019. However Ohio has a law in place that restricts sports team relocations to out of state. So the state of Ohio sued to prevent the relocation.
The MLS, Anthony Precourt, the city of Austin, the city of Columbus, the state of Ohio agreed to allow the Crew to remain in Ohio with Precourt selling the team to a local buyer and for Precourt to get an expansion MLS team in Austin. Precourt has to give up the Crew, who are currently a playoff caliber and competitive team for a new team with a raw expansion draft roster. Some of the expansion franchise fee will be waived for making concessions to sell the Crew. The guy that owns the Cleveland Browns, along with some other family in Columbus stepped up to buy the Crew from Precourt and in exchange Precourt will be given the expansion team in Austin which will be launched once the stadium is done with construction. Likely by 2021 since the stadium goes into construction in February-March 2019 and it takes 2 years to build it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by murksiderock
Sacramento very well might miss out on a team.
It probably will. It has to compete with 11 other places. With there only being one expansion slot left, as the MLS' buildout plan is up to 28 teams and 27 are accounted for, there will likely be a shift in their calculus on which city to award the final expansion spot.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 10-17-2018 at 03:50 PM..
Nielsen has shifted counties around in the past. If I did this correctly, it appears neighbor markets to Atlanta include:
118/ macon (INCREASE)
105/ augusta (INCREASE)
79/ huntsville (INCREASE)
83/ chattanooga (INCREASE)
74/ columbia (INCREASE)
38/ greenville (DECREASE)
127/ columbus, ga (DECREASE)
43/ birmingham (DECREASE)
5 of them showed increases, so maybe they picked up some counties once belonging to Atlanta?
There is probably minimal impact to viewers and nobody would really care.
I remember when WHAG 25 in Hagerstown, MD used to have an NBC affiliation, it brought with it some viewership in one county in central PA that resulted in that county's association to the Washington DC DMA. But this county would revert back and forth between DC and Harrisburg, and at the time, it allowed DC networks to be offered by DirecTV and Dish.
What happened to cause the ~100,000 drop off from 2018 to 2019 in Atlanta?
Atlanta, San Francisco, Boston, and Detroit have been dropping off the Top 10 like flies.
Atlanta could have a stagnant or declining population, San Francisco has been noted by the press for the last few months for the mass exodus leaving the Bay Area for cheaper areas (due to the high COL), Boston is the result of a stagnating or declining New England, and Detroit's woes are widely known.
Houston stayed firmly on the bottom of the Top 10 slot until mid-decade when it rapidly ascended every year to the current #7 position. I thought D.C. would have dropped down one spot so Houston would be next to DFW at #6. (It would have been a pleasant surprise if Houston climbed over DFW to the #5 position--better #4.). The recent government shutdown might trigger a population decline in D.C. and change the view of the "stable" D.C. economy.
Miami has been stuck in the low to mid-teens forever and perhaps can only break into the top 10 if West Palm Beach is included. Tampa is poised to follow Houston's footsteps by breaking through to #10. Phoenix, Seattle, and MSP will eventually (not a matter on "if", but "when"?) round out the bottom 10.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KerrTown
Atlanta, San Francisco, Boston, and Detroit have been dropping off the Top 10 like flies.
Atlanta could have a stagnant or declining population, San Francisco has been noted by the press for the last few months for the mass exodus leaving the Bay Area for cheaper areas (due to the high COL), Boston is the result of a stagnating or declining New England, and Detroit's woes are widely known.
Houston stayed firmly on the bottom of the Top 10 slot until mid-decade when it rapidly ascended every year to the current #7 position. I thought D.C. would have dropped down one spot so Houston would be next to DFW at #6. (It would have been a pleasant surprise if Houston climbed over DFW to the #5 position--better #4.). The recent government shutdown might trigger a population decline in D.C. and change the view of the "stable" D.C. economy.
Miami has been stuck in the low to mid-teens forever and perhaps can only break into the top 10 if West Palm Beach is included. Tampa is poised to follow Houston's footsteps by breaking through to #10. Phoenix, Seattle, and MSP will eventually (not a matter on "if", but "when"?) round out the bottom 10.
Eventually the Top 10 will look like this:
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Houston
Dallas-Fort Worth
Philadelphia
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Phoenix
Seattle
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Population increase has nothing whatsoever to do with Nielsen DMA market size. You should understand that first. DC will not be losing population any time soon, and it's DMA rank has only risen three spots over the last 10 years, not gone down. Houston grows faster than all of them and has lost its rank more than once in TV market.
Atlanta, San Francisco, Boston, and Detroit have been dropping off the Top 10 like flies.
Atlanta could have a stagnant or declining population, San Francisco has been noted by the press for the last few months for the mass exodus leaving the Bay Area for cheaper areas (due to the high COL), Boston is the result of a stagnating or declining New England, and Detroit's woes are widely known.
Houston stayed firmly on the bottom of the Top 10 slot until mid-decade when it rapidly ascended every year to the current #7 position. I thought D.C. would have dropped down one spot so Houston would be next to DFW at #6. (It would have been a pleasant surprise if Houston climbed over DFW to the #5 position--better #4.). The recent government shutdown might trigger a population decline in D.C. and change the view of the "stable" D.C. economy.
Miami has been stuck in the low to mid-teens forever and perhaps can only break into the top 10 if West Palm Beach is included. Tampa is poised to follow Houston's footsteps by breaking through to #10. Phoenix, Seattle, and MSP will eventually (not a matter on "if", but "when"?) round out the bottom 10.
Atlanta, San Francisco, Boston, and Detroit have been dropping off the Top 10 like flies.
Atlanta could have a stagnant or declining population, San Francisco has been noted by the press for the last few months for the mass exodus leaving the Bay Area for cheaper areas (due to the high COL), Boston is the result of a stagnating or declining New England, and Detroit's woes are widely known.
Houston stayed firmly on the bottom of the Top 10 slot until mid-decade when it rapidly ascended every year to the current #7 position. I thought D.C. would have dropped down one spot so Houston would be next to DFW at #6. (It would have been a pleasant surprise if Houston climbed over DFW to the #5 position--better #4.). The recent government shutdown might trigger a population decline in D.C. and change the view of the "stable" D.C. economy.
Miami has been stuck in the low to mid-teens forever and perhaps can only break into the top 10 if West Palm Beach is included. Tampa is poised to follow Houston's footsteps by breaking through to #10. Phoenix, Seattle, and MSP will eventually (not a matter on "if", but "when"?) round out the bottom 10.
Eventually the Top 10 will look like this:
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Houston
Dallas-Fort Worth
Philadelphia
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Phoenix
Seattle
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Atlanta's population isn't the problem. It's the 3rd fastest growing city in the US (surpassed only by the Big 2 in Texas).
That's what makes it even more weird.
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