City and Metro homicides 2019 (living, crime, places, population)

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

I
Why don't you provide the 32 community areas then? Let's compare our list if you feel there is a possibility of a difference in our analysis.

The first thing you should know is that the 2018 US Census 5 year ACS came out a few weeks ago, and I am basing my populations by community area on that. If you want to know how to calculate which census tracts belong to which community areas, then I'll be glad to share that with you (you can start with this data: https://data.cityofchicago.org/Facil...2010/5jrd-6zik)


Data for crimes by community area - the data is through 12/26 and available here. Population is in 2018 numbers as I just talked about. Median Household is in 2017 numbers as I haven't been able to calculate what it is for 2018 yet. This is sorted by least homicides to most by community area in this continuous geographic area:

1. Edgewater: 0 homicides | 57,022 people | $49,287 MHHI
2. O'Hare: 0 homicides | 21,233 people | $49,295 MHHI
3. Bridgeport: 0 homicides | 33,888 people | $45,671 MHHI
4. Hermosa: 0 homicides | 23,489 people | $39,591 MHHI
5. Montclare: 0 homicides | 13,811 people | $48,122 MHHI
6. North Park: 0 homicides | 18,451 people | $56,087 MHHI
7. Forest Glen: 0 homicides | 19,092 people | $110,365 MHHI
8. Jefferson Park: 0 homicides | 27,989 people | $71,459 MHHI
9. Norwood Park: 0 homicides | 42,525 people | $74,069 MHHI
10. Lincoln Square: 0 homicides | 41,713 people | $71,737 MHHI
11. Uptown: 0 homicides | 58,424 people | $49,681 MHHI
12. Oakland: 1 homicide | 6850 people | $28,921 MHHI
13. Near South Side: 1 homicide | 24,343 people | $94,152 MHHI
14. Albany Park: 1 homicide | 50,343 people | $58,128 MHHI
15. Edison Park: 1 homicide | 11,724 people | $99,194 MHHI
16. North Center: 1 homicide | 35,705 people | $104,351 MHHI
17. Armour Square: 2 homicides | 13,719 people | $26,466 MHHI
18. The Loop: 2 homicides | 37,647 people | $103,336 MHHI
19. Avondale: 2 homicides | 37,909 people | $51,703 MHHI
20. Near North Side: 2 homicides | 89,995 people | $93,707 MHHI
21. Lake View: 2 homicides | 100,547 people | $86,119 MHHI
22. Douglas: 3 homicides | 21,268 people | $31,907 MHHI
23. Irving Park: 3 homicides | 53,665 people | $59,538 MHHI
24. Portage Park: 3 homicides | 64,961 people | $61,393 MHHI
25. Lincoln Park: 3 homicides | 68,697 people | $99,685 MHHI
26. West Ridge: 3 homicides | 77,212 people | $49,855 MHHI
27. Logan Square: 4 homicides | 73,689 people | $70,339 MHHI
28. Belmont Cragin: 4 homicides | 80,701 people | $47,263 MHHI
29. Lower West Side: 5 homicides | 32,789 people | $42,458 MHHI
30. West Town: 5 homicides | 83,290 people | $88,761 MHHI
31. Dunning: 6 homicides | 44,035 people | $65,948 MHHI
32. Rogers Park: 6 homicides | 54,872 people | $39,106 MHHI


That is a total of 60 homicides with a 2018 estimated population of 1,421,598 people, or a rate of 4.22 per 100K people. If you use the 2017 populations from the CMap link I gave you, then it's a total of 1,399,832 people, or a rate of 4.28 per 100K people.

And actually doing this I realize that I forgot to include Near West Side which had 8 homicides with a 2018 population of 62,733 people (2017 population of 62,872). So adding that would give a rate of 4.58 per 100K in 2018 population terms and 4.65 per 100K in 2017 population terms.

Here are all 77 community areas of Chicago with their homicide totals from 1/1/2019 to 12/26/2019 along with their 2017 Median Household Incomes. Sorted by MHHI ascending:

Riverdale: 3 homicides | $ 13,345 MHHI
Englewood: 20 | $ 19,795
East Garfield Park: 17 | $ 23,116
West Garfield Park: 24 | $ 23,250
Fuller Park: 4 | $ 23,357
South Shore: 21 | $ 24,345
Burnside: 0 | $ 24,941
Woodlawn: 8 | $ 25,122
Washington Park: 11 | $ 25,385
North Lawndale: 24 | $ 26,362
Armour Square: 2 | $ 26,466
Greater Grand Crossing: 26 | $ 27,035
West Englewood: 20 | $ 28,006
Oakland: 1 | $ 28,291
South Chicago: 16 | $ 29,581
Auburn Gresham: 19 | $ 31,694
Douglas: 3 | $ 31,907
Grand Boulevard: 5 | $ 31,970
Chatham: 12 | $ 32,597
Austin: 53 | $ 32,843
New City: 6 | $ 32,862
South Lawndale: 14 | $ 32,896
Chicago Lawn: 17 | $ 33,844
South Deering: 2 | $ 34,094
Humboldt Park: 27 | $ 35,941
West Pullman: 6 | $ 38,144
Roseland: 28 | $ 38,686
Rogers Park: 6 | $ 39,106
Hermosa: 0 | $ 39,591
Brighton Park: 2 | $ 40,513
Pullman: 4 | $ 40,662
Gage Park: 5 | $ 41,138
Avalon Park: 3 | $ 41,394
Lower West Side: 5 | $ 42,458
East Side: 6 | $ 43,224
Kenwood: 1 | $ 44,088
Washington Heights: 5 | $ 44,707
McKinley Park: 1 | $ 44,904
Bridgeport: 0 | $ 45,671
Archer Heights: 0 | $ 46,632
Belmont Cragin: 4 | $ 47,263
Montclare: 0 | $ 48,122
Edgewater: 0 | $ 49,287
O'Hare: 0 | $ 49,295
Uptown: 0 | $ 49,681
Calumet Heights: 1 | $ 49,768
West Ridge: 3 | $ 49,855
West Lawn: 1 | $ 50,498
Avondale: 2 | $ 51,703
Hyde Park: 0 | $ 52,627
West Elsdon: 2 | $ 54,849
Hegewisch: 0 | $ 55,430
North Park: 0 | $ 56,087
Albany Park: 1 | $ 58,128
Morgan Park: 4 | $ 58,816
Irving Park: 3 | $ 59,538
Portage Park: 3 | $ 61,393
Clearing: 1 | $ 62,382
Dunning: 6 | $ 65,948
Ashburn: 5 | $ 66,560
Garfield Ridge: 3 | $ 68,212
Logan Square: 4 | $ 70,339
Jefferson Park: 0 | $ 71,459
Lincoln Square: 0 | $ 71,737
Norwood Park: 0 | $ 74,069
Near West Side: 8 | $ 80,727
Lake View: 2 | $ 86,119
West Town: 5 | $ 88,761
Beverly: 0 | $ 91,903
Near North Side: 2 | $ 93,707
Near South Side: 1 | $ 94,152
Mount Greenwood: 0 | $ 94,677
Edison Park: 1 | $ 99,194
Lincoln Park: 3 | $ 99,685
The Loop: 2 | $ 103,336
North Center: 1 | $ 104,351
Forest Glen: 0 | $ 110,365

Obviously it should surprise nobody that some of the most violent sections of any city are the ones that are the least well off. Although, not every area that isn't necessarily well off is dangerous either.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by boreatwork

St. Louis, MO 10 year average


70's 45.6
80's 42.29
90's 51.69
00's 38.25
10's 50.9


StL is baffling to me. It is def the worst city in the 2010 with a 10 year average of 50.9. Its comparable to the 90's when it was at its peak crime murder wise at 51.69? What strikes me along with Baltimore is why, how all the sudden since 2014-2015 did everything spike? To start St.L had rates 45 (2010) 35 (2011) 35 (2012) 37 (2013) 50 (2014) 59 (2015) 59 again (2016) 65 (2017) 60 (2018) 64 (2019)


compare this to Baltimore who's 10 year average is 38.6 similar to St.louis 2000's decade rate. The start of the decade started on a downtrend then just blew up around 2014 just like St.Louis
36 (2010) 31 (2011) 35 (2012) 37 (2013) 33 (2014) 55(2015) 51.7 (2016) 52 (2017) 50 (2018) 57 (2019)


Including the spike in Chicago in 2016-2017 rates just don't dramatically increase like that without a significant event. Consider Detroit even with a 200k less people the rates are down and same with New Orleans whose rates used to be higher than St. Louis' highest rates.

I think some might attribute it to the protests that occured back in the mid-2010s and figured police departments simply stop caring as much as about crime. I don't know though....I would expect more crime, despair and hopelessness during the worse downturn since the Great Depression, but it's like the opposite. It's super strange.

[Sharif662]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Yep. I think I said these are preliminary numbers. FBI will be doing an audit soon and then we'll see what the official numbers are.

I seen your earlier statement and just added the update until formalized by the feds. I can still look through all of it and get that info faster.

[Mighty Joe Young]

Omaha finished the year with 23 homicides for 2019. Down from a high of 50 in 2015.

[masssachoicetts]

Do cops racially profiling and the BLM protests around the time of the spike have anything to do with the spike? Does it seem plausible certain minority groups could feel further disconnected from society?

[Sharif662]

An overview of Jackson's homicide rate average/ Number of homicides/ & Homicides average. There's a margin of error to keep in mind.

Decades of 010s
30.1
600
60

Decade of 00s
25.3
453
45

Decade of 90s
35.1
673
67

[DAX_]

What are the numbers for dfw cities

Dallas Fort worth and Arlington

[PerseusVeil]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

I think some might attribute it to the protests that occured back in the mid-2010s and figured police departments simply stop caring as much as about crime. I don't know though....I would expect more crime, despair and hopelessness during the worse downturn since the Great Depression, but it's like the opposite. It's super strange.

St. Louis proper didn't deal with the brunt of the protests after Michael Brown was shot due to Ferguson being in the county and not the city, but they did help to shine a light on the unscrupulous behavior of the city's police department. Additionally, said department's union is currently in an all out war with the circuit attorney's office (St. Louis' name for a district/state's attorney's office).

Finally, the renewal going on in St. Louis is probably playing a part in things. St. Louis' current economic and educational demographics make it look more like Chicago than Detroit or Cleveland. You have an increasingly college educated population that's returning to the city and making higher salaries on one hand and in the other you have a destitute population stuck in the highest crime areas that does not have the means to leave. The black exodus St. Louis is seeing is also more like Chicago's due to this because it's less about being priced out due to gentrification and more about those with the means getting away from the violence.

The trouble with places like St. Louis, and I would also assume Baltimore, is that this violence is highly localized in an already geographically small city limits. You cross into the neighboring county and things can change dramatically. In St. Louis proper you can have mansions on private drives blocks away from similarly built homes that are crumbling and that can be had for a song.

It's really jarring if you haven't seen anything like it before.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by PerseusVeil

The trouble with places like St. Louis, and I would also assume Baltimore, is that this violence is highly localized in an already geographically small city limits. You cross into the neighboring county and things can change dramatically. In St. Louis proper you can have mansions on private drives blocks away from similarly built homes that are crumbling and that can be had for a song.

It's really jarring if you haven't seen anything like it before.

Which areas in the city could you see things like this on Google Street view?

Last year when I was in Cleveland and driving from Little Italy to Downtown, we went through an area where it was like one block would be urban prairie and then one over would be filled with large newer homes. It was so strange.

[TheseGoTo11]

Originally Posted by PerseusVeil

The trouble with places like St. Louis, and I would also assume Baltimore, is that this violence is highly localized in an already geographically small city limits..

Baltimore doesn't have a bad part of town like North of Delmar St. Louis. Entire city is a killing zone. You can't say I'll stay N,E,S, or West of a certain area, pretty much everything is fair game for shootings there.