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Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago60614
I actually prefer the census tract method in many ways. It breaks down a city based on density and where people live a bit more than just per square mile. Census tracts can vary of course, but generally they have on average 4,000 people. They may be small or large, but if you want to look at what's happening in similarly sized areas based on population it's a good tool.
Gives you a sense of how many people are being murdered based on little pockets and areas of a city.
I'm not surprised Chicago has roughly 2/3 of the city living in tracts with no murders. When you look at a map it seems much more widespread than if you look at where the really high density of actual population is vs just a few murders over that widwspread area.
2/3 of the city with no murders, but the other 1/3 of the city is larger than entire cities the size of Baltimore, DC, Boston, Richmond, etc., the city's even twice the size of Philly. But it's understood that all of Chicago is not a "war zone".
At least 12 were officers shooting suspects, so a total of 241 non-officer involved homicides.
2019 Rate- 6.0/100,000, the lowest rate since 1966.
In 2018 there were 259 homicides, but 16 of those were officer involved shootings, so the 241 non-officer involved homicides in 2019 was only 2 less than the 243 in 2018.
Of note, 42 victims were homeless, and officers say virtually all of the perps in those cases were homeless too.
Officer involved shootings are counted as homicides? That's probably what heyjackass.com does with Chicago's numbers. They literally count every form of non suicide related death as homicide to get the highest possible number.
2/3 of the city with no murders, but the other 1/3 of the city is larger than entire cities the size of Baltimore, DC, Boston, Richmond, etc., the city's even twice the size of Philly.
It's all relative - that's why percentages are important to take into consideration. Obviously it sucks for anybody living in those areas - in any city. Here's the thing you didn't calculate though - there's more people living in census tracts with 5+ and 7+ homicides in St. Louis and Baltimore than in Chicago. The number of people living in 3+ homicide tracts isn't too much lower in Baltimore than Chicago. I'm not talking about percentages - I'm talking about in terms of just people. There's 14,000 more people living in the 7+ homicide tracts in Baltimore than Chicago and there's 7000 more people living in the 5+ homicide tracts in St. Louis than Chicago even though Chicago is 9X the population overall of St. Louis.
Quote:
But it's understood that all of Chicago is not a "war zone".
Nope - I don't agree. At least in my own personal life, I've had a large handful of co-workers (here in NYC) who've never been to Chicago ask me if it's safe to go and visit even if just staying downtown. They think that even downtown is bloodshed going on - even though the majority of people living in downtown and numerous neighborhoods around it could afford to live anywhere in the US, there's many many multi millionaires and even multi billionaires living there (including part time ones like George Lucas and the owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars/Wembley Stadium). And mind you, these are mostly people coming to me that aren't part of a particular group that is normally scared of these things.
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 0 Homicides for 2019
Los Angeles: 79.7%
Louisville: 64.1%
Chicago: 64%
Jacksonville: 59.4%
Indianapolis: 58.1%
Washington DC: 56.6%
Richmond, VA: 47.2%
Detroit: 46.6%
Memphis: 46.4%
St. Louis: 45.5%
Baltimore: 36.4%
Baton Rouge, LA: 15.8%
Jackson, MS: 13.3%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 3+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Los Angeles: 1.5%
Louisville: 4%
Jacksonville: 4.8%
Indianapolis: 6.4%
Chicago: 8%
Memphis: 9.1%
Detroit: 9.9%
Washington DC: 13.5%
Richmond, VA: 17.8%
Baton Rouge, LA: 21.6%
Jackson, MS: 23.9%
St. Louis: 26.8%
Baltimore: 30.5%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 5+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Jackson, MS: 0%
Los Angeles: 0.33%
Detroit: 0.44%
Jacksonville: 0.52%
Indianapolis: 0.73%
Louisville: 0.81%
Chicago: 1.3%
Memphis: 1.5%
Washington DC: 2.9%
Richmond, VA: 4.3%
Baltimore: 7.2%
Baton Rouge, LA: 9%
St. Louis: 12.1%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 7+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Louisville: 0%
Indianapolis: 0%
Jacksonville: 0%
Detroit: 0%
Los Angeles: 0%
Jackson, MS: 0%
Richmond, VA: 0%
Memphis: 0%
Chicago: 0.37%
Washington DC: 0.73%
Baton Rouge: 1.3%
Baltimore: 3.97%
St. Louis: 4.5%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 1 Homicide for 2019
Los Angeles: 15.2%
St. Louis: 18%
Baltimore: 18.2%
Washington DC: 19.3%
Chicago: 21.2%
Louisville: 23.1%
Richmond, VA: 25.8%
Indianapolis: 26.7%
Jacksonville: 26.9%
Detroit: 27.2%
Memphis: 28.6%
Jackson, MS: 38.8%
Baton Rouge, LA: 43.9%
I plan on also making some heat maps of the cities I can calculate it for. I think it also highlights which cities for more of its residents is worse off than others regardless of the amount of homicide - i.e. Baltimore appears pretty bad for the majority of residents and Jackson to an extent. Places like Chicago are OK for most residents of the city, but the areas that are bad are very bad as we know. Just shows you that a lot of the city is fine, but then there's some swaths that are the opposite of fine.
Not sure about Richmond, but I do have a source for Memphis that might allow me to do this.
Of the cities I've calculated so far, here are the worst tracts by both count and homicide rate. Click on the links to take you to a page that can show you the geographical boundaries. Again this is only so far out of some cities. Many many cities not here, but out of LA, DC, Chicago, Louisville, Baltimore, Jackson, Detroit, and Indianapolis..
The top one in Baltimore is maybe a 15 minute walk away from downtown. Yikes. Hard to believe you can have such an economically depressed area so close to the center of the city. If the area wasn't super dangerous, you can probably get an apartment there and enjoy a short walk to your job Downtown every day
The top one in Baltimore is maybe a 15 minute walk away from downtown. Yikes. Hard to believe you can have such an economically depressed area so close to the center of the city. If the area wasn't super dangerous, you can probably get an apartment there and enjoy a short walk to your job Downtown every day
I'm not surprised. My wife went to grad school in Baltimore and we spent a few days there a few years ago. I had not been there in a long time. I remember that some things turned not great in a decently short period of time from the center via car. A lot of cities like Chicago have erased a ton of stuff like that in the last 10 or 15 years but Baltimore seemed to still have it.
She lived in Fells Point and still had some run ins with crime herself, but all things considered liked living there.
The top one in Baltimore is maybe a 15 minute walk away from downtown. Yikes. Hard to believe you can have such an economically depressed area so close to the center of the city. If the area wasn't super dangerous, you can probably get an apartment there and enjoy a short walk to your job Downtown every day
That area is also where they're knocking down abandoned homes, and they're not close to done.
Not sure about Miami city proper numbers, but MDC saw 87 murders in 2019, up 13% from 2018.
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