US Cities With Increasing Influence & Impact: 2020 to 2100 (living, best, cost)
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We've seen the thread of cities that diminished in importance, but which cities will become significantly more important over the next 80 years (relative to their current importance)? Remember, you're predicting 80 years in the future, not 10. Trends over the past 9 years likely won't hold true.
Also, which cities will become significantly less important over the next 80 years?
I excluded Chicago, NYC and LA from the poll for obvious reasons... Also a few more that I doubt people would vote for.
80 years is a long time, so that's just incredibly difficult (next to impossible) to predict. For all we know, Virginia Beach could have major increased significance in the 2070s.
My votes are more for the next 20 years - basically my vote goes for Dallas, DC, Houston, Nashville, Seattle, and Atlanta. San Francisco/Bay Area is hard for me as I'm not sure. As someone in the tech industry it's obviously very significant right now, but also I can foresee some interesting things happening in the next decade there that might not necessarily be great things. We'll see though.
There are so many variables, notably climate change and the economy, that make this extremely difficult to predict. I voted for the following:
DC: Unfortunately, I think big business will increasingly move to the greater DC region to be close to the government. DC has traditionally been important as government center, but will increasingly become a business center as well.
Dallas: I don't see the long-term success of Houston due to climate change and general direction in economy/industry. Dallas is better positioned for the future.
Denver: It's current importance is extremely overstated, but I think it will actually be an important hub in the future.
Austin: same reasoning as Denver.
Detroit: The city itself has hit rock bottom, so there is no where to go but up. I think the city will go through a massive transformation to reestablish itself.
Cities I specifically did not vote for:
Seattle: boom and bust cycles define this city. It's already pretty influential and I don't expect it to get significantly more influential just because it has a handful of famous tech businesses.
SF/Bay area: It's climaxed in terms of importance, both globally and nationally. Tech innovation will continue to seep to other metros like Boston, Seattle, San Diego, Austin, etc. It's just too overpriced for residents and businesses. China and India are catching up as well.
Miami, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa: Whether it be droughts or sea level rise, I think these cities will lose billions $ due to climate change. At what point is it a lost cause?
General sunbelt: The incredible amount of new infrastructure that is going into building the sprawling regions of the rapidly growing south (Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Tampa) will eventually reach the end of its useful life. These cities are overbuilt and too low-density to afford the massive maintenance costs of their infrastructure. Only a few regions will survive the infrastructure timebomb. It's just not sustainable.
It's hard to predict 20, and impossible to predict 80! I'll take a guess on some influences:
1. Climate change. The one is obvious. The only unknowns are the extent and specific changes.
2. Rise of some regions/nations. Will the world be more centered on Asia? Will South America and Africa rise?
3. Travel modes. What will the methods be, and who will be the centers of those methods?
4. Disasters. I don't mean 5,000 people die in a big earthquake, but more like a tsunami kills hundreds of thousands, or a dirty bomb renders the center of a city uninhabitable for a long period.
5. Industries. Obviously a huge one. Sometimes a city can rise just by being the hometown of someone who spawns an industry. Or a city will have some natural resource or talent category that pushes it to the top of something.
6. Being a place people like. We've seen this already...if people like a place, they'll often migrate to it even if its economy isn't pre-set for their success, and many will bring jobs with them.
I won't make any guesses about winners and losers for now.
Just a side comment about Seattle though...newsandiego, while Seattle used to be a boom and bust city, there's no particular reason why it would be today or in the future. Even its heavy reliance on tech is really more a reliance on business services, retail, and other sectors that happen to be served by tech-focused companies. We have plenty of risk factors but I haven't heard a good reason for a bust unless it's national/global, like the last two.
Just a side comment about Seattle though...newsandiego, while Seattle used to be a boom and bust city, there's no particular reason why it would be today or in the future. Even its heavy reliance on tech is really more a reliance on business services, retail, and other sectors that happen to be served by tech-focused companies. We have plenty of risk factors but I haven't heard a good reason for a bust unless it's national/global, like the last two.
History is a particular reason. There's not much else we can point to in predicting the future. Although, I'd say the region is due for a major earthquake, so that might do it.
1. Dallas- Increasing population at a very fast rate, good climate, increasing demand to be there. I could see a lot of corporations and companies moving there in the next 80 years. Youll hear Dallas more often its influence the metroplex has as it surpases 8 million, 9 million, 10 million, 11 million, 12 million and even possibly 13 million people by 2100.
2. Seattle- This is an easy one. Great climate without harsh weather, good area for activities. Great amount of infill, construction and transportation construction going on in the city. Its HQ to Amazon and many more great companies that will possibly power through the future. I could see Seattle attracting more companies from California as the costs of living get too high. By 2100 I could see Seattle being an established world class city with many accomplishments.
3. Raleigh- After a recent visit to the Raleigh area, I honestly cant see why it wouldnt dramatically increase in influence. Raleigh has a beautiful airport, great highways, 3 world class universities, the research triangle, a drastically increasing population, high desirability and its somewhere a lot of people want to settle down in... all that for a cheap price tag. Also its close to mega northeast markets like DC, Philly, NYC and Boston, also being within an hours flight to Atlanta, Charlotte, nashville and Richmond. Companies are flocking here and the triangle is growing for good reasons.
4. Nashville- Similar to Raleigh, Nashville offers a variety of things to do in the area, a low Cost of living and a great magnet for intellectuals. Its a fun city that is growing, just not as fast as Raleigh, but still powering through. I could see Nashville growing greatly in the Tech sector.
5. Boston- Call me crazy, but Boston is now the AI Capital of the world. Our future is in the direction of high tech, engineering and biotechnology which is what Boston specializes in. I could see Boston attracting a plethora of new companies to its Seaport district, Cambridge-Kendall area, Somerville and any future developed areas. Its a great city with over 40 univerisities around it including world class names like Harvard, MIT, Tufts, BU, BC and Northeastern. I could see Boston's new wave of development focusing around its high tech, pharma, data sciences and Artificial Intelligence sectors really propelling it to something bigger than it is today. Coupled with world class universities, a growing population, and a really good transit/subway system, will help Boston be greater of an influence than it is today.
2020 Top Market Influencers
1. New York
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Washington DC
5. San Francisco Bay Area
6. Miami
7. Houston
8. Boston
9. Dallas
10. Atlanta
11. Philadelphia
12. Seattle
13. Phoenix
14. Minneapolis
15. Denver
16. Detroit
17. Orlando
18. Charlotte
19. Portland, OR
20. Baltimore
2100 My Predictions of Top Influencers
1. New York
2. Los Angeles
3. San Francisco Bay Area
4. Dallas
5. Washington DC
6. Houston
7. Chicago
8. Boston
9. Seattle
10. Atlanta
11. Miami
12. Phoenix
13. Denver
14. Minneapolis
15. Charlotte
16. Nashville
17. Raleigh/Durham
18. Austin
19. Philadelphia
20. San Antonio
And I agree with all of those who have said that it's impossible to see that far into the future and say with any confidence that this city will make a dramatic rise through the ranks of world (or even national) cities.
But that word is one reason I didn't vote for Washington as one of the cities. Our status as a global superpower has nowhere to go but down. At best, we will maintain our current standing among nations of the world, but I fear that the current Administration is damaging that more than it is enhancing it. We may recover, but after the recovery, our standing will continue to be challenged by the likes of China and other rising powers. Since Washington's influence even in non-government sectors of the economy depends to a large degree on its being our national capital, I don't see its importance making dramatic gains unless our rivals for geopolitical power stumble or fall.
Some other remarks:
Anyone who understands the message Chuck Marohn and his Strong Towns movement have been spreading amongst the populace should get what newgensandiego said above about the Sunbelt cities. The problem with our model of urban development since World War II is that it doesn't produce the tax revenue necessary for the upkeep of the infrastructure built to support it. Someone I know objected to his referring to this as a "Ponzi scheme" because the latter, this person maintained, required that something illegal occur, but I think that the analogy is exact: the system requires that more people move in to pay for what those already there enjoy. Eventually, you run out of new suckers.
I also agree with this poster that Detroit has nowhere to go but up. The big question is: That city built its reputation on a single industry. Is what's replacing that industry solid enough, with enough upside potential, that Detroit will successfully climb back to the pinnacle it once occupied? I voted for it, but I'm not so sure that this will be the case.
I think that if there's any one city that will rise significantly in global stature over the next 80 years, it's Dallas, assuming the climate doesn't warm to the point that living there will be unbearable.
And if that last does happen, then the cities that should be on this list will all be in the northern tier of U.S. states and Canada.
1. Dallas- Increasing population at a very fast rate, good climate, increasing demand to be there. I could see a lot of corporations and companies moving there in the next 80 years. Youll hear Dallas more often its influence the metroplex has as it surpases 8 million, 9 million, 10 million, 11 million, 12 million and even possibly 13 million people by 2100.
I work for a large company and we've expanded our footprint in the Dallas area quite a bit in the last few years and we continue to add teams there whereas for at least my organization, we're barely adding anything in the Bay Area. Here in NYC we were also expanding a lot.
Regarding "more corporations moving there" - yes that's true. Site Selection Magazine puts out top metros for corporate relocations/expansions for awhile. Chicago MSA has been #1 for 4 straight years out of any MSA, but Dallas usually pulls in #2 or #3.
I work for a large company and we've expanded our footprint in the Dallas area quite a bit in the last few years and we continue to add teams there whereas for at least my organization, we're barely adding anything in the Bay Area. Here in NYC we were also expanding a lot.
Regarding "more corporations moving there" - yes that's true. Site Selection Magazine puts out top metros for corporate relocations/expansions for awhile. Chicago MSA has been #1 for 4 straight years out of any MSA, but Dallas usually pulls in #2 or #3.
1. Chicago MSA: 422 projects
2. Dallas MSA: 207 projects
3. Atlanta MSA: 166 projects
4. Houston MSA: 165 projects
5. Cincinnati MSA: 103 projects
6. NYC MSA: 84 projects
7. Columbus, OH MSA: 81 projects
8. Detroit MSA: 79 projects
9. Washington DC MSA: 69 projects
10. St. Louis MSA: 63 projects
11. Charlotte MSA: 62 projects
12T. Louisville MSA: 60 projects
12T. Phoenix MSA: 60 projects
14. Austin MSA: 59 projects
15. Pittsburgh MSA: 56 projects
16. Indianapolis MSA: 54 projects
17. Virginia Beach MSA: 51 projects
18. Cleveland MSA: 50 projects
19T. Los Angeles MSA: 46 projects
19T. Omaha MSA: 46 projects
21. Nashville MSA: 45 projects
22. Minneapolis MSA: 43 projects
23. Tampa MSA: 41 projects
24T. Dayton MSA: 40 projects
24T. Miami MSA: 40 projects
For 2017, the top 25 - https://siteselection.com/issues/201...-defenders.cfm
1. Chicago MSA: 402 projects
2. Houston MSA: 196 projects
3. Dallas MSA: 192 projects
4. Atlanta MSA: 131 projects
5. NYC MSA: 128 projects
6. Cincinnati MSA: 111 projects
7. Columbus, OH MSA: 99 projects
8. Washington DC MSA: 82 projects
9. Indianapolis MSA: 73 projects
10. Los Angeles MSA: 72 projects
11. Detroit MSA: 70 projects
12T. Charlotte MSA: 69 projects
12T. Louisville MSA: 69 projects
14. Kansas City MSA: 65 projects
15T. Phoenix MSA: 63 projects
15T. St. Louis MSA: 63 projects
17. Pittsburgh MSA: 53 projects
18. Cleveland MSA: 52 projects
19. Austin MSA: 51 projects
20. Tampa MSA: 49 projects
21. Philadelphia MSA: 44 projects
22T. Miami MSA: 42 projects
22T. Minneapolis MSA: 42 projects
24. Omaha MSA: 42 projects
25. Greensboro, NC MSA: 41 projects
How does this publication define projects? Finally some data is showing the boom I have been harping on in Louisville construction.
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