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OOF! Poor Philly. I not 100% sure, but I just don't think the closest of these cities to number 1 could be number 19. Although, I'm not too sure what Philly has going for it at this point besides strategic location between NYC and DC.
The thing about Philly is, similar to cities like Boston, NYC, and Chicago, it's a pretty slow population growth (or in the apparent case of Chicago and NYC, no or negative growth) region; however, like the other three, it continues to have a remarkably productive and diverse economy.
Consider that metro areas like Charlotte, Phoenix and Nashville are all seeing much faster population growth than the Philadelphia area, yet Philly's economic growth (as measured by raw GDP numbers) continues to eclipse all of them: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/201...etro0918_0.pdf
That's definitely not a characteristic of a major urban area that will become less influential/consequential. Philly is a "dark horse" when it comes to life sciences, higher education, and continues to gain traction with a critical mass of tech.
Admittedly, it's a city that almost epitomizes the expression "always the bride's maid, but never the bride" in industry "dominance" terms, but the fact that it hasn't put all its eggs in one basket, has massively diversified and de-industrialized, and maintained a pretty significant population standing since the beginning of the country, demonstrates impressive staying power that greatly speaks to a degree of resiliency that few other places truly possess.
By that point Columbus will safely be the most influential city in Ohio, Austin will have the strongest urban core in Texas, Raleigh, Nashville and Charlotte will be as big as Atlanta is now, Atlanta, Seattle and Minneapolis will be seen as full on global cities IMO.
Interesting take. I tend to agree by 2100 the tech centers will be leading but that is 60 years away so any predictions are really not valid. So many variables and so many outcomes. But assuming life goes on as we expect yes the current tech centers will be the new centers. Boston, San Francisco and Seattle will become the most important cities in the us. Again, if nothing changes, but probably will.
Here's the funny thing about sunbelters on city data. Any metrics which show other cities are having success must be false. I have already shown numerous times there has been 13 BILLION in construction in Louisville, for example, as a city I know best. That's just in the last 3 years. So I personally think its ranking based on large projects is deserved. Cincinnati too. People are sleeping on the lower Ohio Valley but the renaissance in that area is unprecedented and a happy medium between the sunbelt sprawl and the declining rust belt.
This is why anecdotal information without context is confuses people. I bet $13 billion sounds like a lot for a mid-sized metro, and it's not terrible. But it's not a lot.
Federal stats are mostly at the state level vs. local level and mostly older, but a trip through census.gov is one clue. Spend some time and you'll find that Kentucky did about $13.7 billion in total construction 2012. That would seem to make sense given the Louisville stats. It doesn't stand out. Tennessee was $22.8 billion, which was more per capita. Oregon was $16.4 despite being a lower population.
Its $1 billion in 2017 housing permits (metro) put it at roughly #60 nationally.
These stats are also sketchy because (speaking for the construction industry) permit dollar amounts aren't reported very accurately at the source, and some federal stats are taken from a third-party media company (yes seriously). But they're a good canary.
The thing about Philly is, similar to cities like Boston, NYC, and Chicago, it's a pretty slow population growth (or in the apparent case of Chicago and NYC, no or negative growth) region; however, like the other three, it continues to have a remarkably productive and diverse economy.
Consider that metro areas like Charlotte, Phoenix and Nashville are all seeing much faster population growth than the Philadelphia area, yet Philly's economic growth (as measured by raw GDP numbers) continues to eclipse all of them: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/201...etro0918_0.pdf
That's definitely not a characteristic of a major urban area that will become less influential/consequential. Philly is a "dark horse" when it comes to life sciences, higher education, and continues to gain traction with a critical mass of tech.
Admittedly, it's a city that almost epitomizes the expression "always the bride's maid, but never the bride" in industry "dominance" terms, but the fact that it hasn't put all its eggs in one basket, has massively diversified and de-industrialized, and maintained a pretty significant population standing since the beginning of the country, demonstrates impressive staying power that greatly speaks to a degree of resiliency that few other places truly possess.
Philadelphia, New York and Boston are the only US cities that have been relevant since the US was settled by Europeans. There are a lot of other "hot" cities in 2019, but Philadelphia has sustained itself as an American powerhouse for many years to come. I would love to hear that poster explain how Raleigh will become more impact / influential..
Most of us won't be here in 2100, but I would wager that Philadelphia would remain in a similar position in influence/ impact of the nation.
Also, if that poster really thinks the only thing Philadelphia has going for it is its location between NYC and DC, then they clearly need to educate themselves about the city.
I could say the only thing Atlanta, Dallas, Austin, etc. have going for them is warm weather, see how that sounds?....
No one knows the future, but I think places of importance and relevance will usually be those areas that CEO’s and thinkers and high brows want to live and be near, places that are naturally beautiful and where investors in other countries want to travel to. Places with natural resources and easy access.
I find predicting the future fascinating.
It is impossible to say what is going to be top cities based on things going on today.
I hope in the future that higher education becomes free or very affordable. This will increase education levels in the country and job opportunities.
Current shift in demographics as manufacturing type jobs are moving to low cost business states from higher cost ones. Thus we see a shift in where jobs/people are moving. While certain industries like tech are moving into the most expensive cities/metros all over. While the Bay area does dominate, you can see other cities are slowly increasing their presence.
What i'm interested in is what future industries will arise and where will they locate. Hopefully robotics and other future technologies make a breakthrough.
I hope in the future healthcare is universal and people have access to it and breakthroughs in medical technology like nanobots healing like the borg. Certain cities would become magnets for this tech field.
I hope in the future we advance space exploration. We are able to build spaceships and colonies on the moon and mars or even giant space stations where people live. I hope America is the place where this technology is centered around but what cities or areas will be the hub?
I hope in the future we move away from fossil fuels and find better technology or use more sustainable technology like solar production in homes/roads, etc. I think certain areas that rely heavily on fossil fuel industry will suffer from this fate while areas that focus on this new technology will do better.
I think today we view cities in the short term. Things change and cities change as technology changes. The rust belt cities were major manufacturing centers with huge populations but technology changed and jobs lost and populations died. The automobile areas like Detroit changed the city as international competition changed but so did robotics/automation made humans obsolete. Farming was the same as technology and farming practices made it so millions of small farmers couldnt compete.
It is impossible to predict the future outcomes of cities. Currently the trends I see now are people moving to low cost of living areas where current jobs are moving/growing. Taxes are lower, home/rental prices are lower. But people are noticing that these areas are also getting slightly more expensive each year like Seattle, Nashville, Charlotte, Austin, Dallas, Denver, DMV area. It will reach a point that people will say it is too expensive (though some are even saying it now), so the 2019 conditions of cheap homes/taxes may not be why people are moving to those areas in 10 or 20 years from now.
I think the cities in warm climates and cities that embrace high-growth industries and/or diverse economies will do the best going forward. Atlanta, the Texas/Florida cities, Phoenix, Denver and the like will grow in influence and importance. Northern and Midwest cities will likely continue to founder a bit. Of course, a variety of factors can change in 80 years, including political factors that contribute to the general movement of people south and west today. However, in the long term, I don't expect those general movements to change much. People aren't moving south and west just because of jobs, they also in many cases do so due to the differences in lifestyle and culture, hard as that may be to believe for some.
I don't worry that much about local natural resource constraints and climate change because we already have the technology to solve those issues - doing so will just take political will and I'm confident we will do what we need to do to ensure that coastal areas and desert areas remain inhabitable going forward. Robust flood control systems, water pipelines, etc. will be the future. We're not just going to cede places like Miami, New Orleans, Houston, and Phoenix in the future because of climate change and water issues imo.
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