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Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade
Las Vegas Charlotte Austin are all pretty major right now and will be solidly in that class by 2030.
I voted Orlando.
I'd push that out to 2040 at least. Austin won't be a major city yet, it's getting a bit over blown on C-D. It will be firmly where Charlotte or LV are today by then. One key reason, is airports. LV and Charlotte will continue to have strong airport traffic for cities of their size, Orlando already does also.
A major city as has been mentioned needs at least close to 5 million in the metro, 4 major sports teams or at least 3 out of the major four and then something else like MLS or WNBA. I believe Austin has 0 of them.
I'd push that out to 2040 at least. Austin won't be a major city yet, it's getting a bit over blown on C-D. It will be firmly where Charlotte or LV are today by then. One key reason, is airports. LV and Charlotte will continue to have strong airport traffic for cities of their size, Orlando already does also.
A major city as has been mentioned needs at least close to 5 million in the metro, 4 major sports teams or at least 3 out of the major four and then something else like MLS or WNBA. I believe Austin has 0 of them.
Austin is getting mls in 2021. If Austin continues its growth, I think it would be around where Tampa is today. It would likely reach 3 million plus by then. It’s already at 2.1 million now.
Agreed. That list is all the way wrong. Too much wrong for me to even bother trying to correct it.
I second that, they lost me at #2. There’s no way San Francisco and Chicago are overtaking Los Angeles in 20 years, or ever. Plenty others after that.
4. Los Angeles
5. Boston + Cambridge + Somerville + 128 Area (Not fair to disinclude Kendall, MIT, Union, Future Suffolk Downs and Union Point)
6. Washington
7. Dallas
8. Seattle
9. Dallas
10. Atlanta
11. Philly (Small Decline ending soon, I have a gut feeling the mid 2020s+ will be a very Philly period)
12. Nashville
13. Charlotte 9Banks, Banks, Financial Centers, Booming)
14. Austin
15. Phoenix
16. Minneapolis St. Paul
17. Raleigh/Durham
18. Denver
19. Tampa
20. Orlando
21. Detroit
I could see these cities rebounding/growing fast to become Major Important cities and area.
As others have said, this list has a whole lot of wrong.
Starting with present day. I would put Houston Dallas and Philadelphia into the same line, its really splitting hairs between the 3 cities/metros.
Miami is not as economically important as the other top cities, but its still a "mecca" in its own way, so I would have it with the above group I mentioned, and then a gap before Atlanta.
2040:
No one is coming for New York, I don't know how a gap could close up like that in 20 years....
No sure where Houston went...
And I would still have Houston, Dallas and Philadelphia in the same group. There is no way Atlanta or Seattle will surpass any of them in 20 years, literally no reason or proof as to why that would happen. If anything I could see Philadelphia picking up momentum and coming for Boston and DC in the next 20 years.
Number 12 going down is a whole mess, I don't feel like explaining it all, except Detroit should by no means be last.
I'd push that out to 2040 at least. Austin won't be a major city yet, it's getting a bit over blown on C-D. It will be firmly where Charlotte or LV are today by then. One key reason, is airports. LV and Charlotte will continue to have strong airport traffic for cities of their size, Orlando already does also.
A major city as has been mentioned needs at least close to 5 million in the metro, 4 major sports teams or at least 3 out of the major four and then something else like MLS or WNBA. I believe Austin has 0 of them.
5 million is so high.. Boston was at 4.2 million in 2000 and still isnt even at 5 million.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,560,868 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade
5 million is so high.. Boston was at 4.2 million in 2000 and still isnt even at 5 million.
At or around it. Boston and Detroit both are major cities under 5 million MSA, plus they meet the other criteria like multiple major sports teams, and media market size. They also have way higher airport numbers than places like Austin, and more international travelers with higher levels of immigration.
I dont see Philadelphia surpassing Boston or DC unless Boston prices itself out of the game. Boston will seriously have to liven up and loosen up on multiple levels for it to continue its current growth with its real estate prices. Just not enough bang for buck.
Next "major" in that far out?? Easy to say Orlando, then Tampa-Stpete-Clearwater-Manatee/Sarasota becuase of big populations gain and crazy building of houses, and people leaving NY NJ CA and chicago
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,560,868 times
Reputation: 5785
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade
I dont see Philadelphia surpassing Boston or DC unless Boston prices itself out of the game. Boston will seriously have to liven up and loosen up on multiple levels for it to continue its current growth with its real estate prices. Just not enough bang for buck.
DC is more important than Boston, barely.
I don't think the East Coast big cities need to worry about who's ahead of one another honestly. None of them will ever catch NY and each of them are firmly established the way they are already. But they still are in the strongest megalopolis in the hemisphere, and one of the strongest in the world.
Boston, Philly, and DC each have now what makes them strong and will continue to strengthen this century. It's true that none will probably regress, but in terms of pace of growth DC will out grow the others as it continues to diversify it's already dominant economy.
Boston leads the nation in bio-tech/life sciences, and Philly does well in that also, so no need for either to think they are falling behind. DC's growth makes sense due to being the capital.
I don't think the East Coast big cities need to worry about who's ahead of one another honestly. None of them will ever catch NY and each of them are firmly established the way they are already. But they still are in the strongest megalopolis in the hemisphere and one of the strongest in the world.
Boston, Philly, and DC each have now what makes them strong and will continue to strengthen this century. It's true that none will probably regress, but in terms of pace of growth DC will out grow the others as it continues to diversify it's already dominant economy.
Boston leads the nation in bio-tech/life sciences, and Philly does well in that also, so no need for either to think they are falling behind.
Exactly, Philly isn't going to fall behind other cities on the list anytime soon. In fact, the 2020s will be a golden decade for my city. Lots of people are sleeping on the next big industry that Philly is prepared to dominate: gene therapy. There are currently a ton of patents being churned out pertaining to this field, and several former startups have attained the capital necessary for massive expansions--Spark Therapeutics is the most notable of this group.
No US city is ever going to catch up to NYC, and DC's economic foot is firmly planted in the fact that it is the seat of the federal government. As long as we continue to compete against Boston (life sciences), SF (we're one of the top regions for it), and Chicago (providing a meaningful urban experience at a fraction of the cost of other traditionally urban centers), we'll be fine. We're solidly in the same tier as Boston, SF, and possibly Chicago, depending on how Chicago is grouped.
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