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View Poll Results: Which cities (Excluding the 18) will be on the brink of emerging as a major city by 2040?
Austin 49 37.12%
San Antonio 20 15.15%
Orlando 33 25.00%
SW Florida 5 3.79%
Salt Lake City 9 6.82%
Raleigh-Durham 23 17.42%
Charlotte 57 43.18%
Las Vegas 18 13.64%
Portland 24 18.18%
Other 29 21.97%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 132. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-04-2019, 12:09 PM
 
Location: La Jolla
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CCrest182 View Post
Phoenix, an Alpha city?? Never heard that one before.
Some of the cities in the poll can't even get basic mass transit going or have a single pro sports team.

Phoenix-all four major sports, aggressively developing a large interurban rail system, population heading towards 2 million. If that's not what something looks like right before being designated as an Alpha, don't know what is.
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Old 08-04-2019, 01:14 PM
 
1,798 posts, read 1,123,027 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
Oh, I thought you were directing it at me, and thought I wasn’t being clear enough.
No, you were pretty clear and I agreed with your assumption.
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Old 08-04-2019, 01:43 PM
 
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Economics and urban form are relevant to what's an alpha qualitatively, as subjective as some criteria are. Phoenix punches multiple weight classes below its population in both regards.
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Old 08-04-2019, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Surprise, AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays25 View Post
Economics and urban form are relevant to what's an alpha qualitatively, as subjective as some criteria are. Phoenix punches multiple weight classes below its population in both regards.
I agree that Phoenix isn't alpha status; however, there's no reason to undermine the metro "Jon Talton" style. Phoenix continues to move forward.
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Old 08-04-2019, 04:01 PM
 
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We talk about cities here, so...
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Old 08-04-2019, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Sacramento CA
422 posts, read 396,617 times
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Sacramento off the list? It’s not a major city by any means but we’re certainly seeing a transformation that would move it in that direction over the next 20+ years.
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Old 08-04-2019, 08:37 PM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
9,398 posts, read 8,873,269 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForeignCrunch View Post
Denver (and Portland) really have no room to grow. That's why their growth and slower and has a lower ceiling than Austin, Dallas, Charlotte, Orlando, etc.
Portland has plenty of room to grow, the problem (or non-problem depending on your outlook) is the urban growth boundary.

Denver also has plenty of room to grow, unfortunately mostly east, which is not terribly desirable for most.
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Old 08-04-2019, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by westsaeed View Post
Sacramento off the list? It’s not a major city by any means but we’re certainly seeing a transformation that would move it in that direction over the next 20+ years.
Nashville and Sacramento where next on the list, but I didn't want to put the list over 10 cities. But I can probably replace it for SW Florida as many don't seem to see that are burgeoning.
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Old 08-05-2019, 09:01 AM
 
1,326 posts, read 2,391,191 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
I mean in my opinion. Major city is 5 million+. Megacity is 10 million plus. For me I don’t see the need to debate major or not. But yeah that might have been consuming.

I think your opinion of a major city being 5 million + is highly flawed. By your criteria if we go by 2018 population estimates, you're saying Boston,Phoenix, San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, and Minneapolis aren't major cities. That's pretty ridiculous. I'm not sure where the cut off can be, but any list doesn't consider San Francisco and Boston as major cities is using flawed criteria. I think a major sensible cutoff for a major city should be somewhere in the 3-4 million range for an MSA. That being said this is still a good discussion to have, but to the title should just be cities above 5 million, not major cities. If I was to pick a city from your group the next ones to get close to reaching 5 million MSA would be Charlotte and then Austin though I don't think either reaches that by 2040.
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Old 08-05-2019, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
6,470 posts, read 4,071,063 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntsville_secede View Post
I think your opinion of a major city being 5 million + is highly flawed. By your criteria if we go by 2018 population estimates, you're saying Boston,Phoenix, San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, and Minneapolis aren't major cities. That's pretty ridiculous. I'm not sure where the cut off can be, but any list doesn't consider San Francisco and Boston as major cities is using flawed criteria. I think a major sensible cutoff for a major city should be somewhere in the 3-4 million range for an MSA. That being said this is still a good discussion to have, but to the title should just be cities above 5 million, not major cities. If I was to pick a city from your group the next ones to get close to reaching 5 million MSA would be Charlotte and then Austin though I don't think either reaches that by 2040.
I consider both SF and Boston as over 5,000,000 though. SF, greater Bay Area is well connected and it's likely it's going to pass 5,000,000. Boston because of it's unique setup of very low density suburbia, with hard increases of density around the city center, will likely reach 5,000,000 in the MSA after Phoenix maybe even after Seattle (not likely), but it's CSA is well on it's way to 9,000,000. While I don't consider the CSA to be of any importance if you include just Hillsborough County which borders Boston MSA, you could get over 5,000,000. It's not areas like Cambridge that makes Boston feel like a major city, it's areas like Lowell and Brockton that makes Boston feel like a major city. If you want to see dense cores you can go to a city of less than a million in Turkey and see density albeit no skyscrapers, it's the combination of actual physical size as well as core areas that makes me put the 5,000,000 people as a major city. Also that isn't a hard boundary, it's not like 4,999,999 and 5,000,001 are different. San Francisco is clearly a major city and part of the San Jose MSA, even though their separate. Boston has a ton of Satellite cities that are within it's MSA and CSA that adds more cars on the road that just when you think your leaving the Boston area you stumble on another small city in many directions. Seattle and MSP for example have nice cores but are physically small, and MSP isn't tiny but it has no equivalent of Conroe to Downtown or Galveston to Downtown journey where it seems like it takes you an hour just to get to the edge of the city. Seattle from North to South is the only impressive direction of development and with mountains and lakes that makes sense but even past Bellevue though development dips quickly and we are talking only 10-15 miles from the core. Now Seattle and Phoenix is on the border, you could consider them major by many metrics, only thing is their population still has to hit the 5,000,000 mark, but that's why this thread isn't about them. This thread isn't about the close to major cities. Hence the other cities aren't major now, but by 2040 all of them even Detroit should make the 5,000,000 cut whether through adding counties or adding people is the question though.
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