Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Two notes: the DC black professional is much more likely to move to PG than Moco. PG has been the biggest benefactor of DC's black population out migration.
MoCo's black population is heavily first and second generation immigrant. At least 10% is African (Ethiopian, West African, etc.). Not sure how many Caribbean folks are in MoCo. Although it will be interesting to see the 2020 census results to see how MoCo's black population has changed. It's now around 20%.
and as Jersey native, NYC really isn't that far ! LOL. A lot of folks in Jersey no longer have a desire to be in NYC all the time, which is what fueled their desire to move to Jersey in the first place.
This has reversed in the last decade. Poor black people are still leaving DC, but professional black people are moving into the city in droves mainly into Ward 7 and Ward 8. They are moving into the city in numbers that have actually reversed the black population loses from 2000-2010 which is not the case in places like Philly, NYC, Chicago, or LA.
Your Mid 20s to early 30s is off and so is your Mid to late 30s. There are so many more neighborhoods to move to in DC than when you lived here. Bajan, how long has it been since you lived in DC? Things have changed so much! I'll help you out with a timeline:
Black perception of generally safe neighborhoods they would want to live in:
Year 2000-2005
-Anywhere west of 16th Street NW
Year 2005-2010
-Anywhere west of North Capitol Street NW
Year 2010-2015
-Anywhere west of the Anacostia River
Year 2015-2020
-Anywhere west of Eastern Avenue NE and Southern Avenue SE
You left DC when the only places black people spoke about in regards to nice neighborhoods to live in or buy in stopped at North Capitol Street to the east and the National Mall to the south. Things had just started to spread towards the Anacostia River banks when you left, but it was a risk at that time.
NOMA, Union Market, Ivy City, Rhode Island Avenue/Edgewood, H Street, Hill East, Brookland, Navy Yard/Capital Riverfront, Buzzard Point, and The Wharf/Waterfront Station weren't even a thing when you left DC. Now, those areas are super expensive and considered gentrified.
The biggest thing you have missed since you left is the professional black population's return to the city and ideological/philosophical change to what it means to live in DC versus the suburbs. For other people reading this that may not know, DC historically had a reputation of mismanagement and poverty and not many black people wanted to live in the city by choice unlike NYC. It used to be the "come up" to move to Maryland from the 1980's-2005. Around 2006, things really started to change in DC and only the wealthy could afford to move into the new booming neighborhoods of U Street and 14th Street etc. which historically post 1960's was a drug strip full of prostitution and homeless people with boarded up businesses.
That progression marched it's way east every year and in the last 5-years now encompasses all of DC and all 8 wards. Now, people in PG would love to live in DC, but many can't afford it so they have to settle for the suburbs. The young people part to this equation is that many young black professionals would love to live in Ward 7 and Ward 8 to rent, but all the new construction till the last year has been tax credit income restricted buildings. That is now about to change. I think you will see the young black professionals join the older black professionals in the Ward 7 and Ward 8 neighborhoods because the rents will be comparable to new places in Largo and Camp Springs/Branch Avenue where they currently congregate.
The Anacostia River acts as a natural barrier for spill over gentrification which will keep Ward 7 and Ward 8 black since the actual land mass is shared with Prince George's County and not DC. Ward 7 and Ward 8 will act as a natural downtown for Prince George's county without any need to cross a river.
This is on point. I know quite a few young black professionals moving into NE (NoMa, by the Rhode Island Metro, etc.) from VA or PG.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
Black people leaving DC are more likely to move to PG County. It's not clear that this is true for college-educated Black people.
PG County still probably receives the largest share of Black professionals of any county, as it receives more in-migration from DC than any other county in the DMV, but if we could control for education, I bet the distribution would looksa lot more equitable than it does for Black out-migration overall. Howard County has become a popular destination (at least among people I know) for educated Black people, and there are still quite a few who end up in MoCo and NOVA for the schools. TBH I would not live in PG unless we had some assurance that our kids would go to Eleanor Roosevelt.
It would be interesting to see the distribution but I'm not sure where we could find that information. My inclination is that PG would still be the number one destination just from past data and anecdotes. I am a lawyer and most of the black judges and experienced black attorneys I know live in MoCo and PG, with some in Calvert. But these folks all work in DC or PG so commute times/occupation is something to keep in mind. If your job is in DC, it makes little sense to live in Howard County. I would suspect a lot of the black growth in Howard County is from the Baltimore metro.
I used to live in NoVa but i'm not super familiar with where black professionals live since it seems the black families weren't concentrated anywhere in NoVa. Maybe Prince Williams County?
Your Mid 20s to early 30s is off and so is your Mid to late 30s. There are so many more neighborhoods to move to in DC than when you lived here. Bajan, how long has it been since you lived in DC? Things have changed so much! I'll help you out with a timeline:
Black perception of generally safe neighborhoods they would want to live in:
Year 2000-2005
-Anywhere west of 16th Street NW
Year 2005-2010
-Anywhere west of North Capitol Street NW
Year 2010-2015
-Anywhere west of the Anacostia River
Year 2015-2020
-Anywhere west of Eastern Avenue NE and Southern Avenue SE
You left DC when the only places black people spoke about in regards to nice neighborhoods to live in or buy in stopped at North Capitol Street to the east and the National Mall to the south. Things had just started to spread towards the Anacostia River banks when you left, but it was a risk at that time.
NOMA, Union Market, Ivy City, Rhode Island Avenue/Edgewood, H Street, Hill East, Brookland, Navy Yard/Capital Riverfront, Buzzard Point, and The Wharf/Waterfront Station weren't even a thing when you left DC. Now, those areas are super expensive and considered gentrified.
The biggest thing you have missed since you left is the professional black population's return to the city and ideological/philosophical change to what it means to live in DC versus the suburbs. For other people reading this that may not know, DC historically had a reputation of mismanagement and poverty and not many black people wanted to live in the city by choice unlike NYC. It used to be the "come up" to move to Maryland from the 1980's-2005. Around 2006, things really started to change in DC and only the wealthy could afford to move into the new booming neighborhoods of U Street and 14th Street etc. which historically post 1960's was a drug strip full of prostitution and homeless people with boarded up businesses.
That progression marched it's way east every year and in the last 5-years now encompasses all of DC and all 8 wards. Now, people in PG would love to live in DC, but many can't afford it so they have to settle for the suburbs. The young people part to this equation is that many young black professionals would love to live in Ward 7 and Ward 8 to rent, but all the new construction till the last year has been tax credit income restricted buildings. That is now about to change. I think you will see the young black professionals join the older black professionals in the Ward 7 and Ward 8 neighborhoods because the rents will be comparable to new places in Largo and Camp Springs/Branch Avenue where they currently congregate.
The Anacostia River acts as a natural barrier for spill over gentrification which will keep Ward 7 and Ward 8 black since the actual land mass is shared with Prince George's County and not DC. Ward 7 and Ward 8 will act as a natural downtown for Prince George's county without any need to cross a river.
I agree that the urban core of DC will look like Manhattan soon. Extremely built-up with high-rises everywhere, extremely high density with some census tracts reaching 120k-130k people per square mile according to some calculation, and extremely white by population. I think that's inevitable which is true for every urban core in America seeing development.
This literally does not address one thing I said. At all.
I basically said two things: (1) Black professionals in DC do not concentrate in any one particular area of the city and (2) Black people tend to move out of DC when they want to start a family but remain in the area. This is the inverse of NYC where (1) Black people concentrate in a few parts of the city and (2) leave the region altogether when they want to start a family. These are broadstrokes that do not apply to everyone and every situation.
Talking about all this new development (which you were no doubt itching to do) is irrelevant because there comes a time in most people's lives where they start family planning and they have to make a choice. For most people, remaining in a city is not a practical option for a number of reasons. These people often end up in Maryland or Virginia for one simple reason: schools. If you don't luck out and win the lottery, or have enough money to send your children to private school, then you are likely going to leave the city since most people don't want their kids going to Anacostia or Ballou.
This literally does not address one thing I said. At all.
I basically said two things: (1) Black professionals in DC do not concentrate in any one particular area of the city and (2) Black people tend to move out of DC when they want to start a family but remain in the area. This is the inverse of NYC where (1) Black people concentrate in a few parts of the city and (2) leave the region altogether when they want to start a family. These are broadstrokes that do not apply to everyone and every situation.
Talking about all this new development (which you were no doubt itching to do) is irrelevant because there comes a time in most people's lives where they start family planning and they have to make a choice. For most people, remaining in a city is not a practical option for a number of reasons. These people often end up in Maryland or Virginia for one simple reason: schools. If you don't luck out and win the lottery, or have enough money to send your children to private school, then you are likely going to leave the city since most people don't want their kids going to Anacostia or Ballou.
1. Black professionals congregate in Ward 7 and Ward 8 in large numbers. I know this because I'm in the social scene here and I know so many people with a house they either own or rent in Ward 7 and Ward 8 and we are all well under 40.
2. Most black people aren't getting married till way late in life and those that do have children many times don't live with the father or mother. They are single.
I don't even have many friends that are married. Honestly, most people don't get married anymore and those that do are getting divorced after a few years. That's just the way it is in this era, especially in the black community.
I have a good friend who is an attorney for Syracuse that is moving here this year and he is married. They are going to use the lottery since in 2020, most people have their children in charter schools anyway.
This is on point. I know quite a few young black professionals moving into NE (NoMa, by the Rhode Island Metro, etc.) from VA or PG.
It would be interesting to see the distribution but I'm not sure where we could find that information. My inclination is that PG would still be the number one destination just from past data and anecdotes. I am a lawyer and most of the black judges and experienced black attorneys I know live in MoCo and PG, with some in Calvert. But these folks all work in DC or PG so commute times/occupation is something to keep in mind. If your job is in DC, it makes little sense to live in Howard County. I would suspect a lot of the black growth in Howard County is from the Baltimore metro.
I used to live in NoVa but i'm not super familiar with where black professionals live since it seems the black families weren't concentrated anywhere in NoVa. Maybe Prince Williams County?
Here is the data for legal occupations:
PG County - 1,953
Montgomery - 1,522
Howard County - 324
Most growth in Howard is coming from DC, not Baltimore, which is why it will probably join the DC metro this year. Howard County has a strong combination of new, (more) affordable housing, nearly non-existent poverty and strong schools. The biggest knock on PG will always be the schools and I would bet that the likelihood of choosing PG decreases as income increases.
PG County - 1,953
Montgomery - 1,522
Howard County - 324
Most growth in Howard is coming from DC, not Baltimore, which is why it will probably join the DC metro this year. Howard County has a strong combination of new, (more) affordable housing, nearly non-existent poverty and strong schools. The biggest knock on PG will always be the schools and I would bet that the likelihood of choosing PG decreases as income increases.
Do you have a source on that? Would also love to see the source for the legal occupations (about what I suspected). I want to see whether legal occupations includes non-attorneys and the numbers for Calvert and Charles County. I also suspect most of those folks in the legal occupations in Howard don't work in DC.
The integration of the Baltimore and DC areas will be interesting in the next couple decades.
Talking about all this new development (which you were no doubt itching to do) is irrelevant because there comes a time in most people's lives where they start family planning and they have to make a choice. For most people, remaining in a city is not a practical option for a number of reasons. These people often end up in Maryland or Virginia for one simple reason: schools. If you don't luck out and win the lottery, or have enough money to send your children to private school, then you are likely going to leave the city since most people don't want their kids going to Anacostia or Ballou.
Serious question, why are you always so against new development? We have had these debates for years and you never want to talk about development and how it can improve an area. Is there a reason? I can't remember you saying a single positive thing about any new development that could improve an area from it's current built environment. You know every neighborhood used to be trees and forest prior to it's construction, is that what you would have thought prior to their construction?
Yep! That's the point I was making. In 2020, people are putting an offer on a house anywhere in the city hoping they don't get outbid.
Thats impressive
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
