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The one Philadelphia transit expansion project that was on track to get built got derailed.
This was a spur of the Norristown High-Speed Line light metro to the mall and office park in King of Prussia. KoP is the third-largest shopping mall in the USA, and the community is the East Coast's second-largest edge city after Tysons (Corner), Va.
There were many, including several rail transit advocates and fans, who questioned the utility of this line, but both SEPTA and the King of Prussia (business improvement) District pushed hard for it.
Then, when the Federal Transit Administration reviewed SEPTA's request for project funding, the FTA asked if SEPTA had enough money on hand to cover cost overruns.
Poof, project canceled.
The Wawa extension of the Media/Elwyn Regional Rail line did open in 2022. Two intermediate stations between Elwyn and Wawa (Williamson School and Lenni) did not reopen as part of the project (I would have argued for reopening Williamson School). In a move I find amusing, SEPTA got Wawa Inc., the operator of the dominant convenience store chain in Eastern Pennsylvania and most of New Jersey, to pay for the naming rights to the station, which had been named Wawa even before the PRR West Chester Branch beyond Elwyn had been shut down because the track had deteriorated.
The project that could replace the canceled King of Prussia NHSL spur is the Roosevelt Boulevard subway, or the Northeast Spur of the Broad Street Line. This project is Philadelphia's answer to New York City's Second Avenue Line, with two differences: The Boulevard subway has been on the planning maps for longer (it was first proposed 110 years ago, in 1913) and none of it has been built yet. Nor was any part of it likely to get built until a Penn city planning PhD student named Jay Arzu got his hands on the proposal and the history of past attempts to build the iine (the city came close to building it twice, and the last time the city studied the issue, in 1999-2003, the study urged that the line be built). Arzu has managed to get SEPTA General Manager Leslie Richards (who taught a course he took at Penn) to change her tune from "No way this will get built" to "This is something we should look at again." And since PennDOT is in the middle of a study on making Philadelphia's most reviled thoroughfare work better for everyone who uses and lives along it, called "Route for Change," the subway line is actually in play again. As I wrote in my blurb about this guy for Phillymag's annual Most Influential Philadelphians issue (he was #40 of 150), "If, sometime in 2035, you get off a shiny new B-5 Broad Street Line train at Cottman Avenue subway station, you will have Jay Arzu to thank for that."
The one Philadelphia transit expansion project that was on track to get built got derailed.
This was a spur of the Norristown High-Speed Line light metro to the mall and office park in King of Prussia. KoP is the third-largest shopping mall in the USA, and the community is the East Coast's second-largest edge city after Tysons (Corner), Va.
There were many, including several rail transit advocates and fans, who questioned the utility of this line, but both SEPTA and the King of Prussia (business improvement) District pushed hard for it.
Then, when the Federal Transit Administration reviewed SEPTA's request for project funding, the FTA asked if SEPTA had enough money on hand to cover cost overruns.
Poof, project canceled.
The Wawa extension of the Media/Elwyn Regional Rail line did open in 2022. Two intermediate stations between Elwyn and Wawa (Williamson School and Lenni) did not reopen as part of the project (I would have argued for reopening Williamson School). In a move I find amusing, SEPTA got Wawa Inc., the operator of the dominant convenience store chain in Eastern Pennsylvania and most of New Jersey, to pay for the naming rights to the station, which had been named Wawa even before the PRR West Chester Branch beyond Elwyn had been shut down because the track had deteriorated.
The project that could replace the canceled King of Prussia NHSL spur is the Roosevelt Boulevard subway, or the Northeast Spur of the Broad Street Line. This project is Philadelphia's answer to New York City's Second Avenue Line, with two differences: The Boulevard subway has been on the planning maps for longer (it was first proposed 110 years ago, in 1913) and none of it has been built yet. Nor was any part of it likely to get built until a Penn city planning PhD student named Jay Arzu got his hands on the proposal and the history of past attempts to build the iine (the city came close to building it twice, and the last time the city studied the issue, in 1999-2003, the study urged that the line be built). Arzu has managed to get SEPTA General Manager Leslie Richards (who taught a course he took at Penn) to change her tune from "No way this will get built" to "This is something we should look at again." And since PennDOT is in the middle of a study on making Philadelphia's most reviled thoroughfare work better for everyone who uses and lives along it, called "Route for Change," the subway line is actually in play again. As I wrote in my blurb about this guy for Phillymag's annual Most Influential Philadelphians issue (he was #40 of 150), "If, sometime in 2035, you get off a shiny new B-5 Broad Street Line train at Cottman Avenue subway station, you will have Jay Arzu to thank for that."
Contingency funds for cost overruns has become a significant issue over the last several years because the FTA increased the standard needing to be met in order to receive federal funding. This immediately made every project more expensive. Local Los Angeles transit advocate, Nick Andert, made a really good video about it recently. The contingency discussion starts at the 7:15 mark.
I'm not so sure that malls are going to continue to be the transit anchors that they once were. I can't speak specifically to the King of Prussia mall, but malls across the US were struggling pre-pandemic and it's only gotten worse.
The NE spur still seems like it's in the "idea" phase so 2035 seems very optimistic. Probably more like 2040-2050 if all goes well unless things change drastically. Building transit in the US is currently very difficult. Ridiculously difficult even.
Not necessarily more expensive in the end. Just more cushion if needed.
True but the point is made in the video that I linked, and I partly agree, that if money is available it will almost certainly be used. Either way, the funds have to be available which can make a project infeasible or have to be scaled back.
Often, it's NOT used. With multi-project programs, contingency on one project can go to another. Sound Transit has funded significant work that way.
Oh, I'm sure but even still it's more money tied up for the better part of a decade that could be used elsewhere. If federal money was used, they have to keep it as contingency until the project is in service and the federal grant is closed. Either way the important takeaway is that the contingency amounts required for federal grants have increased drastically making some projects no longer possible as planned.
Contingency funds for cost overruns has become a significant issue over the last several years because the FTA increased the standard needing to be met in order to receive federal funding. This immediately made every project more expensive. Local Los Angeles transit advocate, Nick Andert, made a really good video about it recently. The contingency discussion starts at the 7:15 mark.
I'm not so sure that malls are going to continue to be the transit anchors that they once were. I can't speak specifically to the King of Prussia mall, but malls across the US were struggling pre-pandemic and it's only gotten worse.
The NE spur still seems like it's in the "idea" phase so 2035 seems very optimistic. Probably more like 2040-2050 if all goes well unless things change drastically. Building transit in the US is currently very difficult. Ridiculously difficult even.
Most malls are indeed struggling, but the three biggest occupy niches that will likely keep them relevant in a post-mall era.
Both the American Dream Mall in the New Jersey Meadowlands and the Mall of America outside Minneapolis are also tourist magnets because they contain indoor amusement parks.
King of Prussia and the other East Coast edge city anchor mall, the Tysons I and II pair outside Washington, both contain lots of high-end boutique retailers and are the primary high-end shopping destinations in their respective regions.
These features have made all four malls resistant to the pressures that have laid many other malls low, including in their own regions.
Interesting video on why it takes so long and costs so much to build transit infrastructure here. Wonder how we can cut all those Gordian knots?
Yeah, 2035 is probably optimistic as a completion date for a Boulevard subway. PennDOT will need to complete its second version of "Route for Change" before we can even say that the skids have been greased for its approval and construction. After all, the last city study said "Build it," and it still didn't get built.
Urban growth boundaries are helpful for existing malls. They make it much harder to leapfrog new malls, keeping the existing ones relevant. My region has never had a "ghost mall" issue.
Maybe I'm way off but I don't see huge malls continuing to be a thing. The American Dreamland Mall opened right before the pandemic and has been losing money and and may not make it last I heard. I went to the Mall of America 20 years ago and it was nothing special aside from Camp Snoopy. To me coming from California it was very much like any mall except that it was twice as big because it often had two of every generic mall store. I can't imagine that it has gotten better or is doing well but maybe it is.
Urban growth boundaries are helpful for existing malls. They make it much harder to leapfrog new malls, keeping the existing ones relevant. My region has never had a "ghost mall" issue.
Your region greatly contributes to the ghost mall issue!
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