2020 Urban Area Predictions?

[GeoffD]

This is all useless without any economic data. A densely populated slum isn’t very interesting or significant.

[Playz]

Originally Posted by qworldorder

There’s been a lot of threads lately about MSAs, CSAs, urban cores and downtown vibrancy. But I’ve yet to see any specifically on the Census defined Urban Areas. It appears the 2020 rankings have yet to be released, as how they’re calculated has been changed since 2010. I personally prefer Urban Area over every other metric (less fluff, easier to compare internationally), so I’d be eager to read your predictions. For reference, here are the top 20 from 2010:

Rank Name Population
(2010 Census) Land Area
(km2) Land Area
(sq mi) Density
(Population / km2) Density
(Population / sq mi) Central City
Population
(2010 Census) Central City
Pop % of
Urban Area Central City
Land Area Central City
Land Area % of
Urban Area
1 New York–Newark, NY–NJ–CT–PA 18,351,295 8,936.0 3,450.2 2,053.6 5,318.9 8,175,133 44.5% 302.643 8.8%
2 Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, CA 14,083,662 5,907.8 2,281.0 2,383.9 6,174.3 3,792,621 31.2% 468 27%
3 Chicago, IL–IN–WI 8,608,208 6,326.7 2,442.8 1,360.6 3,524.0 2,695,598 31.3% 227 9.3%
4 Miami, FL 5,502,379 3,208.0 1,238.6 1,715.2 4,442.4 399,457 7.3% 36 2.9%
5 Philadelphia, PA–NJ–DE–MD 5,441,567 5,131.7 1,981.4 1,060.4 2,746.4 1,526,016 28% 134 6.8%
6 Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX 5,121,892 4,607.9 1,779.1 1,111.5 2,878.9 1,197,816 23.4% 340 19.1%
7 San Francisco–Oakland, CA 4,945,708 2,096.9 809.6 2,358.6 6,108.8 805,235 24.5% 46.9 9%
8 Houston, TX 4,944,332 4,299.4 1,660.0 1,150.0 2,978.5 2,099,451 42.5% 639 38.5%
9 Washington, DC–VA–MD 4,586,770 3,423.3 1,321.7 1,339.9 3,470.3 681,170 14.9% 61 4.6%
10 Atlanta, GA 4,515,419 6,851.4 2,645.4 659.0 1,706.9 420,003 9.3% 133 5%
11 Boston, MA–NH–RI–CT 4,181,019 4,852.2 1,873.5 861.7 2,231.7 617,594 14.8% 48 2.6%
12 Detroit, MI 3,734,090 3,463.2 1,337.2 1,078.2 2,792.5 713,777 19.1% 138 10.3%
13 Phoenix–Mesa, AZ 3,629,114 2,969.6 1,146.6 1,222.1 3,165.2 1,445,632 40% 517 45.1%
14 Seattle, WA 3,059,393 2,616.7 1,010.3 1,169.2 3,028.2 608,660 20% 83.9 8.3%
15 San Diego, CA 2,956,746 1,896.9 732.4 1,558.7 4,037.0 1,307,402 44.2% 325.2 44.4%
16 Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN 2,650,890 2,646.5 1,021.8 1,001.7 2,594.3 382,578 14.4% 54.9 5.4%
17 Tampa–St. Petersburg, FL 2,441,770 2,478.6 957.0 985.1 2,551.5 335,709 13.7% 113.4 11.8%
18 Denver–Aurora–Lakewood, CO 2,374,203 1,730.0 668.0 1,372.4 3,554.4 600,158 25.2% 153.3 22.9%
19 Baltimore, MD 2,203,663 1,857.1 717.0 1,186.6 3,073.3 620,961 28.2% 80.9 11.3%
20 St. Louis, MO–IL 2,150,706 2,392.2 923.6 899.0 2,328.5 319,294 14.8% 61.9 6.7%

This is formatted horribly, headache even trying to read thru the numbers.

[mjtinmemphis]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

This is all useless without any economic data. A densely populated slum isn’t very interesting or significant.

I don't know of any large urban area that is not economically diverse.

[qworldorder]

Originally Posted by Playz

This is formatted horribly, headache even trying to read thru the numbers.

Apologies, used my phone, and I cannot find a way to edit the original post. If there is a way to correct, please share.

[Mr. Clutch]

Originally Posted by qworldorder

There’s been a lot of threads lately about MSAs, CSAs, urban cores and downtown vibrancy. But I’ve yet to see any specifically on the Census defined Urban Areas. It appears the 2020 rankings have yet to be released, as how they’re calculated has been changed since 2010. I personally prefer Urban Area over every other metric (less fluff, easier to compare internationally), so I’d be eager to read your predictions. For reference, here are the top 20 from 2010:

Rank Name Population
(2010 Census) Land Area
(km2) Land Area
(sq mi) Density
(Population / km2) Density
(Population / sq mi) Central City
Population
(2010 Census) Central City
Pop % of
Urban Area Central City
Land Area Central City
Land Area % of
Urban Area
1 New York–Newark, NY–NJ–CT–PA 18,351,295 8,936.0 3,450.2 2,053.6 5,318.9 8,175,133 44.5% 302.643 8.8%
2 Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, CA 14,083,662 5,907.8 2,281.0 2,383.9 6,174.3 3,792,621 31.2% 468 27%
3 Chicago, IL–IN–WI 8,608,208 6,326.7 2,442.8 1,360.6 3,524.0 2,695,598 31.3% 227 9.3%
4 Miami, FL 5,502,379 3,208.0 1,238.6 1,715.2 4,442.4 399,457 7.3% 36 2.9%
5 Philadelphia, PA–NJ–DE–MD 5,441,567 5,131.7 1,981.4 1,060.4 2,746.4 1,526,016 28% 134 6.8%
6 Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX 5,121,892 4,607.9 1,779.1 1,111.5 2,878.9 1,197,816 23.4% 340 19.1%
7 San Francisco–Oakland, CA 4,945,708 2,096.9 809.6 2,358.6 6,108.8 805,235 24.5% 46.9 9%
8 Houston, TX 4,944,332 4,299.4 1,660.0 1,150.0 2,978.5 2,099,451 42.5% 639 38.5%
9 Washington, DC–VA–MD 4,586,770 3,423.3 1,321.7 1,339.9 3,470.3 681,170 14.9% 61 4.6%
10 Atlanta, GA 4,515,419 6,851.4 2,645.4 659.0 1,706.9 420,003 9.3% 133 5%
11 Boston, MA–NH–RI–CT 4,181,019 4,852.2 1,873.5 861.7 2,231.7 617,594 14.8% 48 2.6%
12 Detroit, MI 3,734,090 3,463.2 1,337.2 1,078.2 2,792.5 713,777 19.1% 138 10.3%
13 Phoenix–Mesa, AZ 3,629,114 2,969.6 1,146.6 1,222.1 3,165.2 1,445,632 40% 517 45.1%
14 Seattle, WA 3,059,393 2,616.7 1,010.3 1,169.2 3,028.2 608,660 20% 83.9 8.3%
15 San Diego, CA 2,956,746 1,896.9 732.4 1,558.7 4,037.0 1,307,402 44.2% 325.2 44.4%
16 Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN 2,650,890 2,646.5 1,021.8 1,001.7 2,594.3 382,578 14.4% 54.9 5.4%
17 Tampa–St. Petersburg, FL 2,441,770 2,478.6 957.0 985.1 2,551.5 335,709 13.7% 113.4 11.8%
18 Denver–Aurora–Lakewood, CO 2,374,203 1,730.0 668.0 1,372.4 3,554.4 600,158 25.2% 153.3 22.9%
19 Baltimore, MD 2,203,663 1,857.1 717.0 1,186.6 3,073.3 620,961 28.2% 80.9 11.3%
20 St. Louis, MO–IL 2,150,706 2,392.2 923.6 899.0 2,328.5 319,294 14.8% 61.9 6.7%

I'm a fan of Urban Area too for much the same reason. I understand why MSA is more commonly used as a lot of the areas that are included in that metric rely on urban areas and interact with them heavily in terms of commutes and economic interplay. However, I agree that they cut out a lot of exurban development that is only lightly connected with the urban centers anchoring the UAs.