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The population loss really has to do with one group leaving en masse and to be fair, outside of NYC all the major Bos-Wash corridor cities are below their peak populations and all are struggling to retain population now so that's not saying much.
I'm not sure if they are *all* struggling to retain population in terms of net population gain and loss. There's a lot of flux and uncertainty from the census being conducted partly during the pandemic and the near term effects of it and estimates are from a year ago. For Baltimore though, DC going from strong growth to uncertainty might mean less people searching for more affordable urban living in Baltimore.
I'm not sure if they are *all* struggling to retain population in terms of net population gain and loss. There's a lot of flux and uncertainty from the census being conducted partly during the pandemic and the near term effects of it and estimates are from a year ago. For Baltimore though, DC going from strong growth to uncertainty might mean less people searching for more affordable urban living in Baltimore.
Regarding the DC slowdown, what goes on in the district historically has virtually zero effect on what goes on in Baltimore (proper) from a housing perspective.
Regarding the DC slowdown, what goes on in the district historically has virtually zero effect on what goes on in Baltimore (proper) from a housing perspective.
Yea, I was saying there's a lot of flux so I'm not sure if those numbers are a good representation of how things are like today and for the near future. I know that NYC has seen its rent prices over the last year skyrocket while residential construction continues and so it'd hard to tell if it's really struggling in regards to population growth.
I know that historically the district has virtually zero effect on what goes on in Baltimore proper from a housing perspective, but in regards to a turnaround for Baltimore, I don't think it's been that uncommon in more recent years to consider if continued price increases in DC might mean people looking for urban living in the region to consider Baltimore. That's not so much about immediately right now, but more about gradually into the near future.
DC adding population in the estimate is interesting though. Was this after a particularly hard hit 2020 to 2021? Or is it just generally doing better in these counts than the rest of the corridor?
Regarding the DC slowdown, what goes on in the district historically has virtually zero effect on what goes on in Baltimore (proper) from a housing perspective.
Especially New York just frankly makes no sense. There would be a huge dent in the housing market that simply doesn’t exist if the Estimates were even remotely correct.
I’m not sure what’s happening but I think COVID screwed a lot of accounting up. It might shake out a bit in the next few years.
Even just look at Buffalo, the estimates were showing losses, but the Census showed growth.
Especially New York just frankly makes no sense. There would be a huge dent in the housing market that simply doesn’t exist if the Estimates were even remotely correct.
I’m not sure what’s happening but I think COVID screwed a lot of accounting up. It might shake out a bit in the next few years.
Even just look at Buffalo, the estimates were showing losses, but the Census showed growth.
One of the arguments earlier on was that a lot of people were moving on up and getting away from having roommates due to fears sparked on by the pandemic (and temporary pandemic deals). That could have explained part of it since more people living coupled with people moving on up to space upgrades. An example would be a couple moving from a 1-bedroom to a 2 bedroom with one of the bedrooms as a home office and meanwhile their 1 bedroom former residence is now taken over by a single person. However, I don't think that lasted very long because the last year or so has seen some incredible rent prices as people streamed back into the city as the pandemic housing deals are over and people are sometimes entering open house bidding wars for *rentals* in some places and this is despite the city having continued to add more housing. Note that if the measurement is 2021-2022 population changes mid-year as the estimates are done (I think July to July), then it would have encapsulated some of the pandemic dip as would have the year prior. However, July 2022 - July 2023 would grab much though all of the return to pre-pandemic trend lines.
Yea, I was saying there's a lot of flux so I'm not sure if those numbers are a good representation of how things are like today and for the near future. I know that NYC has seen its rent prices over the last year skyrocket while residential construction continues and so it'd hard to tell if it's really struggling in regards to population growth.
Population can still decline even if construction is up due average household size retracting (I.e. people splitting rent and bouncing) which considering NYC's affordability issues could be the culprit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
I know that historically the district has virtually zero effect on what goes on in Baltimore proper from a housing perspective, but in regards to a turnaround for Baltimore, I don't think it's been that uncommon in more recent years to consider if continued price increases in DC might mean people looking for urban living in the region to consider Baltimore. That's not so much about immediately right now, but more about gradually into the near future.
Why go to Baltimore when you can pay no state tax, live in NoVA and still effectively be "in" DC? But I do agree on the implications of gradual overflow in the future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
DC adding population in the estimate is interesting though. Was this after a particularly hard hit 2020 to 2021? Or is it just generally doing better in these counts than the rest of the corridor?
DC only lost ~2k people in 2020-2021. I'd wager with confidence it's doing generally better in the counts than the rest of the corridor.
Population can still decline even if construction is up due average household size retracting (I.e. people splitting rent and bouncing) which considering NYC's affordability issues could be the culprit.
Why go to Baltimore when you can pay no state tax, live in NoVA and still effectively be "in" DC? But I do agree on the implications of gradual overflow in the future.
DC only lost ~2k people in 2020-2021. I'd wager with confidence it's doing generally better in the counts than the rest of the corridor.
The census estimates have New York shrinking multiple times faster than Detroit in the late 2000s. Which is a dip that (in nominal terms) Detroit recovered from in 2022, 15 years later. And in real terms, hasn’t come close to recovering
It’s quite hard to square. I’m sure it’s dropped by not 9.4%.
This is really a 2030 question (unless estimates show St Louis at like 325k or *obviously higher* than it’s 2020 population at some point)
Population can still decline even if construction is up due average household size retracting (I.e. people splitting rent and bouncing) which considering NYC's affordability issues could be the culprit.
Why go to Baltimore when you can pay no state tax, live in NoVA and still effectively be "in" DC? But I do agree on the implications of gradual overflow in the future.
DC only lost ~2k people in 2020-2021. I'd wager with confidence it's doing generally better in the counts than the rest of the corridor.
Yes, I mentioned that to btownboss in my response to him and with example of it though in the opposite direction of affordability. That is to say, things got cheaper for a bit because of the pandemic as people fled the city and people "upsized" their living area per person or location due to the very good pandemic deals. Those deals often took the form of getting a few to several extra months of housing that effectively lowers the rent rather than a direct rent increase likely due to terms of owners loans about maintaining a specific price per square foot. Now that rent has back to sheer insanity shortly after to towards the end of that census estimate period (and perhaps some more pandemic fears ebbing), having roommates probably once again seems reasonable.
I just don't think the recent years numbers are indicative of continuing trends in some cases at least since you can see in that link I posted as a response to btownboss, the average rent levels seem to have resumed their pre-pandemic trajectory after a brief hiatus for 2020-2020 with prices completely recovering and going past 2019.
Regarding the DC slowdown, what goes on in the district historically has virtually zero effect on what goes on in Baltimore (proper) from a housing perspective.
Those are all *estimates* and we saw in a flawed 2020 census those estimates were way off on NYC... and there is no possible way they are down another 123,000 since 2020; even if there is a decline.
Bringing it back to the topic, there is a recent Bank of America internal study that has Cleveland as one of the top metros since 2020 for in-migration along with Austin, Tampa and Orlando.
Yeah internal and not official but I'm guessing BOA (the no. 2 banking institution in the US) has the resources and does more homework than the census bureau (estimates) on stuff like this, since their data is looking for where they want to invest their money.
The census estimates have New York shrinking multiple times faster than Detroit in the late 2000s. Which is a dip that (in nominal terms) Detroit recovered from in 2022, 15 years later. And in real terms, hasn’t come close to recovering
It’s quite hard to square. I’m sure it’s dropped by not 9.4%.
This is really a 2030 question (unless estimates show St Louis at like 325k or *obviously higher* than it’s 2020 population at some point)
NYC's gone from 8.8 million the 2020 census to 8.33 million which is ~6% retraction.
But yes, this is definitely 2030 question. I take all census population counts post COVID with cups of salt.
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