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NYC's gone from 8.8 million the 2020 census to 8.33 million which is ~6% retraction.
But yes, this is definitely 2030 question. I take all census population counts post COVID with cups of salt.
Right, the 2020-2022 years were especially weird and 2023 is a sort of easing into normalcy, so provided there isn't some insane new sudden turmoil (knock on wood), the rest of the decade will probably resemble 2023 more in trajectory though getting average annual change rates would probably be more like the change from 2023 to 2024.
I'd also like to say that I think a lot perhaps all of these cities have a shot at going back to growth, potentially not growth from 2020 to 2030 census, but at least some steady moderate growth in the annual estimates towards the latter part of this decade.
Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to bounce back from its nadir given that there are at least two major infrastructure construction projects underway and with the change in sentiment towards Baltimore in terms of state government, another major infrastructure project for local passenger rail might be underway. On top of that, Baltimore has seen a rapid drop in tested levels of lead poisoning over the past three decades which is something that heavily affects the youth of socioeconomically disadvantaged background. It's posited that those affects from childhood lead poisoning really come to a head in late teens early 20s and so supposedly this decade should see the results of greatly reduced lead poisoning start to show as children born in the 2000s and later would be coming into their teens and adulthood through this decade--this is something that probably affects a lot of older rust belt cities where they have high density, and more abandoned or in states of disrepair buildings and water infrastructure that have been steadily had lead abatement or remediation done along with a growing proportion of new construction that does not have lead paint or lead pipes. Meanwhile, the continued growth of the metropolitan area and nearby other areas (notably the DC metropolitan area) that depend on the Port of Baltimore as their main port likely means intensified commerce and activity through that port.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 06-27-2023 at 02:38 PM..
It's amazing to me that in 2023 we still don't have a super reliable source for accurate annual population and migration statistics.
How embarrassing for the US.
It is incredibly embarrassing. They often BUTCHER Pennsylvania jurisdictions with their estimates, so I am now just waiting patiently for the 2030 results.
It is incredibly embarrassing. They often BUTCHER Pennsylvania jurisdictions with their estimates, so I am now just waiting patiently for the 2030 results.
I think you are overestimating how good other countries censuses are.
I feel like Cleveland is one of the most misunderstood cities in the country. I voted for Pittsburgh, fwiw.
I just got back from Buffalo two weekends ago and I enjoyed my time in the city. Cleveland and Buffalo are two very similar cities from their demographics, urban neighborhoods and built environment. If Buffalo grew last decade, Cleveland easily can, too. I know people on this site love to talk cultural amenities, parks, neighborhoods and transit, and Cleveland offers all of that. You can literally take rail from the airport and be in the city's downtown or it's thriving health and cultural hub where the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals is located. Their museums are highly ranked, the community continues to invest in them, and growth is happening in all directions in the city from east to west (not just one hot neighborhood). They have great inner ring suburbs many of which are connected by the light rail's blue and green lines and not far from some of the red line's (heavy rail) stations in the city.
University Circle is booming and several residential highrises have been constructed and are under construction. Cleveland also started early converting a lot of their older buildings downtown into residential and because of that, inventory is now limited resulting in new construction. Plenty of new office buildings, hotels and residential highrises have been built in downtown Cleveland over the last handful of years.
It seems like there has been a real momentum shift from certain neighborhoods to several neighborhoods around the city seeing new residential conversions take place. It is just odd to see the assets that Cleveland and also St. Louis have be so misunderstood.
There seems to be so much more momentum in Cleveland than what I saw in Buffalo. The foundation is there in Cleveland to reverse its population decline. Buffalo has really done a great job marketing itself to immigrants, and I think this is something Cleveland is really starting to do as well. Again, if Buffalo can do it, Cleveland right down the road can do the same thing.
I feel like Cleveland is one of the most misunderstood cities in the country. I voted for Pittsburgh, fwiw.
I just got back from Buffalo two weekends ago and I enjoyed my time in the city. Cleveland and Buffalo are two very similar cities from their demographics, urban neighborhoods and built environment. If Buffalo grew last decade, Cleveland easily can, too. I know people on this site love to talk cultural amenities, parks, neighborhoods and transit, and Cleveland offers all of that. You can literally take rail from the airport and be in the city's downtown or it's thriving health and cultural hub where the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals is located. Their museums are highly ranked, the community continues to invest in them, and growth is happening in all directions in the city from east to west (not just one hot neighborhood). They have great inner ring suburbs many of which are connected by the light rail's blue and green lines and not far from some of the red line's (heavy rail) stations in the city.
University Circle is booming and several residential highrises have been constructed and are under construction. Cleveland also started early converting a lot of their older buildings downtown into residential and because of that, inventory is now limited resulting in new construction. Plenty of new office buildings, hotels and residential highrises have been built in downtown Cleveland over the last handful of years.
It seems like there has been a real momentum shift from certain neighborhoods to several neighborhoods around the city seeing new residential conversions take place. It is just odd to see the assets that Cleveland and also St. Louis have be so misunderstood.
There seems to be so much more momentum in Cleveland than what I saw in Buffalo. The foundation is there in Cleveland to reverse its population decline. Buffalo has really done a great job marketing itself to immigrants, and I think this is something Cleveland is really starting to do as well. Again, if Buffalo can do it, Cleveland right down the road can do the same thing.
Cleveland and Buffalo are nearly mirror image, so why I don't see any reasons why Cleveland can't start to go back on a population upswing, there are a couple big differences that have held Cleveland back.
1. Buffalo embraced being a city open to refugees from South Asia where Cleveland was, at best, ambivalent. Instead it was Akron down the road that embraced that and just like Buffalo now has a fast-growing and young Asian population in what were formerly downtrodden neighborhoods.
2. Cleveland's black population is way less centered around the city than it is in Buffalo. While Cleveland still has the largest black population in Cuyahoga/MSA, there are more blacks living outside Cleveland in Cuyahoga County in total than live in the city. At the metro level (adding in the northern Summit/Portage burbs), it may be less than 35 percent who live in the city.
The metro's large black population hasn't grown but it also hasn't shrank. Instead, since most of the eastern Cuyahoga, the closer in Northern Summit/Portage communities and the western Lake County communities have a semi to very high percentage of black populations, it has dispersed it away from being concentrated to just being within the city. For better or worse, Buffalo's black population is still more centered around the city of Buffalo.
Outside of that, looks like both are still losing whites overall (Cleveland slightly more) but not to the extent in the past ... and both are graining in educated whites. Both have pretty fast growing Hispanic/Latino populations that attract basically the same portion of that population ... Caribbean descent (Cleveland slightly more).
Last edited by ClevelandBrown; 07-03-2023 at 04:44 PM..
The one advantage Buffalo has over Cleveland than can't be easily replicated is proximity to Toronto. That's a part of the draw for South Asians and other immigrant groups. You are 90 min away from one of the largest South Asian populations on the planet outside South Asia. You can live a low CoL life and easily drive up on the weekends for food and cultural events.
The one advantage Buffalo has over Cleveland than can't be easily replicated is proximity to Toronto. That's a part of the draw for South Asians and other immigrant groups. You are 90 min away from one of the largest South Asian populations on the planet outside South Asia. You can live a low CoL life and easily drive up on the weekends for food and cultural events.
Buffalo's South Asian growth has been very impressive. I really enjoyed seeing the diversity and people starting to establish roots.
I guess my question is, how much does Toronto really impact Buffalo outside of visitors and such going back and forth between both areas? I would assume that being two different countries hinders the growth that takes place in Buffalo from Toronto versus other satellite cities like Hamilton, Kitchener and Guelph.
Yeah, it's not that people move from Toronto to Buffalo. It's that when Begladeshi people in NYC are looking to move to lower CoL areas, one of the selling points is that you aren't far from a global city with a large South Asian diaspora. In most of the US, South Asian Muslims are a distinct minority, so being near Toronto is a huge plus factor.
Last edited by jpdivola; 07-05-2023 at 06:46 AM..
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