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I believe there was an old thread on this that included Buffalo, but Buffalo already won. So subbing in Hartford
This is *city limits*
Which city turns it around first? Or if you believe sag two will grow between 2020 and 2030 vote for the one you think will have the biggest magnitude of Growth.
Pittsburgh seems like the best bet. It had a very slight loss from the 2010 to 2020 census and basically remained static for the 2022 estimate. Allegheny County where Pittsburgh is and is capital of actually posted a net gain from the 2010 to 2020 census. Meanwhile, it's still quite affordable, constantly brings in new blood through its universities, and has some fairly high profile companies that might actually be able to retain some of that new blood while being affordable enough for those people to buy homes and start families.
The only real crap move of recent years is the cracking plant that's probably not great for air quality (had a friend move there and one of the reasons he moved out was specifically the air quality).
Definitely not Hartford. The city itself is a hot mess.
Ironically the latest year over year city estimates (2021-2022) showed a small gain for Hartford. I'm sure it's just general fluctuation within the estimates process and it doesn't represent a trend. I still found it interesting. Hartford's MSA also showed gains, again same as my previous sentence I'm sure.
Definitely not Hartford. The city itself is a hot mess.
I think there's a bit of optimism available for Hartford as UConn Hartford started moving things from West Hartford to downtown Hartford in 2017 and so now the law school, business school, and public policy school among others are in Hartford proper. Plus, the Hartford Line got up and running as did the Valley Flyer extension.
I do think they should remove I-91 in Hartford though (at *most* allow it to get to I-84 from the north, but that's it and preferably further up north at Jennings Road and so no freeway from there to Charter Oak Bridge) and bury and cap almost all of I-84 within the city.
Also, true high speed rail route should be an extension along Waterbury branch of MNR through to Hartford and then to Providence avoiding the winding CT coast. The rail right of way is already there for the most part to get through Hartford and then follow the Middle Turnpike and then CT Route 101 to Providence, just need to stop being a whiny baby ***** about doing it.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 06-21-2023 at 03:22 PM..
1) it outcompetes it’s suburbs or 2) the region grows dragging the city with it.
So in order of likelihood:
So Pittsburgh by far has the best relative quality of the city compared to its suburbs. However, it may have the worst overall metro demographics. But I tend to think the city has enough it will turn around
Baltimore has the best region but maybe the 2nd worst city. Even it’s city center is desolate. However I think there is a chance spillover with DC (especially with new Hybrid arrangements and a new Administtation in Annapolis focused on the city could help a lot. One caveat is DC/NOVA are not very NIMBY so compared to say Providence, I think Baltimore is a
bit more on its own as DC had done a decent jobs at keeping up with its growth.
Milwaukee- a better regional demographic than Pittsburgh and relatively robust urban neighborhoods that genuinely offer things its suburbs don’t. So I think they got a shot. Lake Michigan and it’s waterfront neighborhoods are something unique that many of its suburbs (but not all) lack so I think that’s helpful in retaining residents.
St Louis: Seems like it has a ton of issues, but does have great urban neighborhoods and a slowly growing metro area. However it’s north side is really really hemorrhaging population. And I don’t know if it can make that up. However it does have the 2nd stringers inner city professional class as well (after Pittsburgh) on the list. And it has a larger “watershed” of urban pilgrims that anyone else on the list
Hartford: so it got better regional dynamics than Cleveland. Slowing growing population, a Large number of high paying jobs, and a state government with basically no other choice for a city that is suppose to represent the state. But totally lacks even a single non-downtown hip neighborhood and I think a lot of urbanists would pick Boston/NY rather than settle in Hartford. Also has tremendous suburbs that might damper city migration. However, Hartford is the only city of the bunch with significant international migration so I may be underestimating it post-Trump and if Biden/Dems wins in 2024.
Cleveland: unfortunately I don’t see Cleveland Turing the corner. Anemic job growth thru multiple recession/recoveries make it tough to see a comeback. I also think the fact Cleveland’s best urban neighborhood might be Lakewood is a bit problematic. Cleveland does have a few hip urban neighborhoods (unlike Hartford) but I think it’s at least top 2 in terms of best suburbs of the bunch which will in my guess handicap the city itself from rebounding. And a combo of great suburbs and bad regional demographics puts it below Hartford
Milwaukee has fantastic bones and a great uninterrupted strip of nice vibrant neighborhoods with some new ones gradually emerging. The winters suck and competing with chicago is tricky and the taxes are rather high and it's not as cheap as Pittsburgh, but it has great bones on the lake and a lot going for it, although the recent crime surge has hurt it.
Pittsburgh would be number one though. Great bones. Walkable. Beautiful setting. Good nature options. Good jobs. Good universities.
Pittsburgh then a tap then Baltimore then Milwaukee
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