Which integrated bus/rail system has the stronger prospects for future ridership/expansion, Chicago CTA or D.C. WMATA? (best, crime)
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One of the big revelations from the 2023 APTA report was that the D.C. subway had surpassed the Chicago "L", perhaps the nation's most iconic urban rail, in total ridership.
This might lead some to believe that a major shakeup in the national transit pecking order is taking place, but bus ridership numbers show that Chicago CTA with a large lead over WMATA buses in ridership.
So I don't think one or the other tells the tale, since like most major systems, the buses and rail are integrated and are effectively one system accessible from the same transit pass.
Though their transit expansion plans haven't captured attention like some other cities, Chicago was recently awarded billions of dollars in federal funding for the purpose of expanding the CTA rail red line.
Will D.C. also catch CTA in bus ridership, or will Chicago widen its lead?
Will Chicago build on the red line expansion and reclaim the number 2 spot there?
Consider the whole transit agency package-rail/bus/BRT!
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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I would preface by saying at least regarding DC, that transit has been booming way up since 1st Qtr this year. The 2nd/3rd quarter numbers will truly reflect that, as Qtr 1 there was still a shut down Yellow Line, and missing 7000 series stock on the tracks, so even comparing these are a bit behind. But I'm sure Chicago and other cities have seen jumps over the course of the year too. DC Metrorail and bus both hit new peaks since the pandemic two times in the last few weeks with over 800k weekday riders. The transit agency expects with certainty for that to cross 1 million riders both bus and rail in the upcoming year or so.
Long term DC overall will see more total ridership growth across all modes I believe. WMATA led CTA in heavy rail transit riders for about a good decade pre-pandemic, it just dropped below for about a year or two post-pandemic while trains were down on the system and because of WFH. For now Chicago leads among all transit modes combined being the larger metro area, but per capita all modes of transit just edges out Chicago by percentage. This decade will remain close/competitive between the two, but the way DC and it's TOD nodes are being built up. I could see it eclipsing Chicago in all modes of transit commuter-rail, bus, light-rail, streetcar in another decade plus.
Chicago will maintain the edge in overall bus ridership total, but I'm not sure on pct long term. More BRT is planned for many DC suburbs, and there's a lot of ambitious WMATA plans going forward to increase rail capacity in the core. The Red Line will boost Chicago some and keep it relevant, but that's right about when, or just after the Purple Line opens in the MD suburbs which is expected to move about 65k weekday riders from the most recent projections. MARC is being extended into Northern Virginia soon, and this will only increase the commuter-rail numbers long term.
What has the potential to separate DC once and for all for good would be the transit loop for the Blue Line being explored that would add 16 new total stations to the heavy rail core including 4 new (superstation) transfer stations. This however is much further off from reality yet, than the Red Line is in Chicago which just secured NEPA funding to move into it's engineering phase.
Last edited by the resident09; 10-03-2023 at 10:12 PM..
The CTA is f*cking garbage these days. stinky, crime ridden, doesn't come 50% of the time, and simply an unpleasant experience. I was in DC and the trains/stations there make the trains in Chicago look 3rd world. WMATA is far more modern, safer, wider trains, and more frequent trains.
Sadly, all of this can be blamed on leadership. When Rahm (a centrist pro-transit democrat mayor who actually rode the trains regularly) was in power, CTA was easily the 2nd best in the country behind NYC. Now we have a "progressive" mayor who fake acts like he cares about transit but really doesnt. Gets drove around everywhere. WMATA is expanding, increasing frequencies, and emphasizing safety, basically the exact opposite CTA is doing.
One thing I also notice is that in Chicago, alot of the land use around CTA stations is strip malls, drive thrus, vacant lots, etc. That doesn't increase ridership. In DC, its the opposite, it seemed like every station was surrounded by TOD and high density development which is good
Oh and I did I mention Chicago is spending damn near 4 billion for 4 new stations in a rapid declining, suburban density level area of the city? The far southside. Completely idiotic. Ridership projections are abysmal, but they're still going along with the red line extension.
I’m biased to Chicago but I’ve got to say that WMATA seems to have more aggressive expansion plans. I still think Chicago has a big advantage when it comes to busses but I can see WMATA taking over when it comes to rail (if it hasn’t already). I voted for the DC metro. Also I’m very jealous of how clean and grand the metro stations look in DC. It’s definitely a much more impressive entrance to the city than those dirty 2000-3000 rail cars the CTA still has running on the blue line from O’hare (although the new 7000s are nice and there are quite a few of them on the blue line now). I also felt safer on WMATA as well. One advantage point for CTA is the flat fare system, making it much cheaper overall than metro.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ggplicks
Oh and I did I mention Chicago is spending damn near 4 billion for 4 new stations in a rapid declining, suburban density level area of the city? The far southside. Completely idiotic. Ridership projections are abysmal, but they're still going along with the red line extension.
To be fair, the Silver line extension in NOVA was built with "suburban density", although NOVA has some dense burbs, but it really was built with the airport in mind pre-pandemic thinking of tons of commuters taking the train out to the Tysons/Reston corridor for work, and either reverse commuting or counting on the local suburban populations that already exist there.
WMATA will remain ahead in heavy rail for the foreseeable future I expect, unless they are unable to get the operating budget in order here locally by next year which could cause a transit death spiral. Outside of securing that local funding they are moving up quickly. Just wait until the end of year when APTA numbers come out, and you'll see it separate even more from CTA rail than Q1 numbers. Q2 and Q3 WMATA's been back in it's bag for sure.
To be fair, the Silver line extension in NOVA was built with "suburban density", although NOVA has some dense burbs, but it really was built with the airport in mind pre-pandemic thinking of tons of commuters taking the train out to the Tysons/Reston corridor for work, and either reverse commuting or counting on the local suburban populations that already exist there.
There is zero comparison. The Silver Line was built to go to the airport (very useful and needed) also it passes through actually dense growing areas. Also areas with jobs like you said.
The red line extension is extending to an area that has a fast declining population, no jobs, crime ridden, and low density. The last station on the line is literally next to a garbage dump landfill lol, no TOD is being built there.
Washington. Chicago has the issue that a large swath of its city is losing a lot of population leading to some northern areas being over capacity and Soith/West running empty.
Plus most of its population growth is so close to the center of town I’d expect Walk/biking to expand faster than transit since a lot more trips will be under 1 mile
Although the APTA doesn’t seem awfully realizable since it often directly conflicts with some agencies self published numbers
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