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According to planners, New York City is projected to be at 9.4 million in2025. In raw numbers, New York City's population has been growing more than Los Angeles for a while now so I don't see how LA can catch up to New York City in the next 150 years.
Population Boom
Quote:
New York might need an extra million or so slices of cake for its 400th birthday party in 2025.
Estimated today at a record 8.2 million, the population is expected to reach nearly 9.4 million in 2025. But that projected growth poses potential problems that New York is just starting to grapple with: ensuring that there are enough places in which to live, work, attend school and play and that transportation and energy are adequate.
According to planners, New York City is projected to be at 9.4 million in2025. In raw numbers, New York City's population has been growing more than Los Angeles for a while now so I don't see how LA can catch up to New York City in the next 150 years.
Gentrification is only going to add more people if they continue building condos and small townhomes. The Southside of the city is basically one huge vacant lot. If the city focuses on improving the southside and continues to conserve land, the city will climb well over 3,000,000 and maybe even closer to 4.
Actually Gentrification typically DECRASES the population of a neighborhood/city; people with money usually want more space, decrasing the density.
Chicago has alrady peaked with the condo boom, and is predicted to have a lower population since 2000.
One that people seem to have forgotten so far is Atlanta. Given the fact that the trend still seems to favor Sun Belt growth, combined with Atlanta's central location as a hub for travel up and down the east coast, and between east--both the Northeast and the Southeast--and west, I'm guessing Atlanta may nudge into the top five by 2050. Although it's also possible that Atlanta may be an extreme example of major growth in the metro area while the city proper population grows fairly slowly, which leads me to speculate that Dallas, another centrally located city, which still shows a lot of growth in the city proper as well as the metro, may be another contender for the top five by 2050.
While I believe Atlanta was to increase it's density. I don't think it will ever reach the point that it will hold around 2-3 million in the city limits. UNLESS, the country starts returning back to it's old roots before the car was available. But if that affects Atlanta, it will affect every other city as well. Dallas is a good choice though because they have abundant land.
Interesting idea for a thread. I wouldn't even hazard a guess about the populations of American cities in forty years. Even the order is an iffy prediction, because a lot can change in that time. Today's boomtown may be tomorrow's stagnant city. But, to take a shot at a little speculation . . .
I'm not quite making the connection about why the Americanization of Hispanics would slow down L.A.'s growth, but I do hear that L.A. is growing more slowly at present than it once was. I'm guessing that L.A. will be bigger than you're predicting, but probably won't catch NYC in that time.
NYC may have more room to grow up than you're thinking, if you think beyond Manhattan. However, I'm guessing that you're correct that NYC proper will see slow growth, though I expect that the metro area will grow quite a bit (which will probably be the case with most big cities).
One that people seem to have forgotten so far is Atlanta. Given the fact that the trend still seems to favor Sun Belt growth, combined with Atlanta's central location as a hub for travel up and down the east coast, and between east--both the Northeast and the Southeast--and west, I'm guessing Atlanta may nudge into the top five by 2050. Although it's also possible that Atlanta may be an extreme example of major growth inthe metro area while the city proper population grows fairly slowly, which leads me to speculate that Dallas, another centrally located city, which still shows a lot of growth in the city proper as well as the metro, may be another contender for the top five by 2050.
Percentagewise, the city of Atlanta's growth has outstripped that of the metro area since 1990, from 300,000 to 520,000 over that period. Due to the limited size of the city's geographic area and it's inability to annex, however, I don't see it ever making the top 5 of American cities.
How can Los Angeles sustain growth when it comes to water availability? The Colorado River doesn't even flow into the Gulf of California any longer. It's completely dry. This does not bode well for the entire SW United States, as far as I am concerned. Peak oil was in the news last summer, due to 4 dollar a gallon gasoline prices. Peak water is, to me, an even more pressing concern.
I thought it would be interesting to see what people think the 5 largest United States cities will be in 2050. Post populations and comments as to why you feel this way, don't just order them off in a list!
1. New York, New York
Population: 9,400,000
I don't see anything passing New York by 2050. I know some people are going to say the city will be well over 10,000,000 by then, but I don't see anywhere for NYC to grow. Growing up takes so much time and money that I just don't see it happening.
2. Los Angeles, California
Population: 5,000,000
I think the growth L.A has experienced is going to start to slow down as Hispanic Immigrants become more and more "Americanized".
3. Chicago, Illinois
Population: 3,800,000
Chicago's population has the reputation for going up, and then falling right back down, but with Urban living making a comeback, I think it will keep a slight lead over Houston.
4. Houston, Texas
Population: 3,600,000
Houston is the perfect location for some, it offers suburban living in a major city. I think this will still be appleaing to many people come 2050.
5. Philadelphia, Pennslyvania
Population: 2,100,000
I think the spot for number five is going to be a battle. It will be VERY close between Pheonix, Philadelphia, and San Diego, but I hope Philadelphia can pull through and win it.
I think you nailed it. Good job, + rep points for you!
How can Los Angeles sustain growth when it comes to water availability? The Colorado River doesn't even flow into the Gulf of California any longer. It's completely dry. This does not bode well for the entire SW United States, as far as I am concerned. Peak oil was in the news last summer, due to 4 dollar a gallon gasoline prices. Peak water is, to me, an even more pressing concern.
I cannot speak for California, but AZ is entitled to 2.8 million acre-feet of Colorado River water, but only consumes 1.7 million with only half of that going to the cities (the other half for water banking and irrigation). Any landscaping is done with retreated and reclaimed water.
In addition, AZ gets its water from different sources, not just one - the Colorado River is not the main source. Water conservation is a serious issue here in the Southwest and isn't ignored. Neither is it ignored in Southern California.
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