Lake Erie ice (dangerous, pollution, activity)

[WRnative]

Lake Erie ice cover this winter lags far behind the historic norm, but still greater than last year.



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Lake Erie has the highest potential to develop ice first as well as freeze over completely because it is the shallowest of the lakes. Even though this is the coldest part of the winter when ice should be rapidly increasing in coverage, only 3% of the lake has ice on it. While ice was low two years ago, nearly a third of Lake Erie was frozen. Amazingly, the ice coverage was even lower on this date last year, at just 1.8%.
On average, the surface of Lake Erie is frozen 40-50% by this time of year.>>



https://www.accuweather.com/en/winte...-trends/887071


The decrease in ice cover may increase the potential for lake effect snow storms, but this was not the outcome last winter, as the January and February snowfalls were historically low.


https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/03/...winter-record/


From first-linked article:



<<"When Arctic air arrives by late January, the ice acts as a lid, keeping moisture from escaping the lake surface, and this can lead to a downturn in lake-effect snow events downwind," Benz said. "The reduction in open water also reduces the fetch -- or the distance that winds blow over open water -- and that also reduces the amount of moisture that escapes into the atmosphere," he added.>>


Is this the new norm?


<<One overly warm season isn’t necessarily a harbinger of the inevitable. But increasingly, scientists can pick out patterns in the scattershot records of change from across the Great Lakes, and those patterns are pointing toward a sobering conclusion: The 2019-2020 winter, with its faint traces of ice, is likely just a taste of the future....


Climate experts forecast air temperatures in the Great Lakes basin to rise by another degree or so by 2045, and roughly six to 10 degrees by 2100. There’s also more heat in the water, forced in during long, hot summers.


However, some scientists predict that by the end of the 2030s, there will be 15 to 16 fewer days with the minimum temperature below freezing in the Great Lakes basin, and by the 2050s a few more. By the end of the century, depending on the strength and aggressiveness of climate actions taken, 27 to 42 fewer days each year could be below freezing, scientists say.

>>


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...w-cover/#close



Unfortunately, ice cover is important to suppressing Lake Erie algal growth. It also is vital to Lake Erie fisheries.


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Lack of ice cover allows light to penetrate the surface and promote algae growth. This image to the right here was taken February 3, 2012 and shows algae and sediment covering Lake Erie.
Lack of ice cover may also cause problems for fish populations. Many fish species depend on the protection that ice cover provides their eggs from dangerous winds or waves. Also, ice cover helps to ward off any bacterial growth that may affect the survival of the fish. Ice fishing – part of a multi-billion dollar fishing industry is also affected as the ice is a no longer reliable platform to partake in the activity.
Nearshore wetlands and shorelines, habitat for many wildlife species, are also affected as they depend on stable ice for protection from erosion. Our wetlands in the Great Lakes are vital to bird and other amphibian habitat, protecting the lakes from sediment pollution and cleaning our drinking water. We need them to stay on the shore.
Ice cover also provides protection from wintertime evaporation of the lakes. Evaporation rates are the highest in the winter. Sustained lack of ice cover over a few years or decades could contribute to lower lake levels.>>


https://blog.nwf.org/2012/02/danger-...eat-lakes-ice/




The warming of Lake Erie may reduce lake churning, necessary to provide dissolved oxygen to lower layers of the lake. Reduced lake water "turnover" likely will expand Lake Erie's dead zone.


https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/lake-turnover/


https://www.michiganseagrant.org/les...tratification/



What we take for granted in northern Ohio; factoids new to me. From the first National Geographic article linked agove.



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The Great Lakes account for about 20 percent of the freshwater on Earth’s surface. For perspective: That amount could cover the entire contiguous United States in nearly 10 feet of water.

The lakes’ geographical footprint is also hard to fathom. Their combined surfaces span more than 94,000 square miles, about the size of the United Kingdom. The combined measurement of the coasts of the five lakes is thousands of miles longer than either the Pacific or Atlantic coastline of the contiguous U.S.>>

[BKShoreman]

WR Native- You were a little premature. Last week ice cover was 85% which is pretty normal. Ice cover fluctuates a lot. Last year was an outlier. Jet stream movement seems to be the biggest determinant. Warming trend next week but we will be into March.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by BKShoreman

WR Native- You were a little premature. Last week ice cover was 85% which is pretty normal. Ice cover fluctuates a lot. Last year was an outlier. Jet stream movement seems to be the biggest determinant. Warming trend next week but we will be into March.

Ice as far as the eye could see last week this time. Still a very little bit near the shore, at least by me.

[ohioaninsc]

Originally Posted by BKShoreman

WR Native- You were a little premature. Last week ice cover was 85% which is pretty normal. Ice cover fluctuates a lot. Last year was an outlier. Jet stream movement seems to be the biggest determinant. Warming trend next week but we will be into March.

Those outliers are becoming closer to the norm w/ ongoing climate change.
But good to see so much ice last week.