CLE #5 for Inbound Migration Changes (2022 vs 2019) (Cleveland, Akron: apartments, crime, employment)

[SlideRules99]

Interesting study, using both 2022 U.S. Census data and USPS “change of address” stats.

CLE metro ranked #5 in the nation for largest increase in inbound migration rate, pre vs post pandemic.

This is not population change…as it doesn’t net for outbound (or deaths), but simply measures inbound migration then (2019) vs. now (thru end of 2022).

Scroll down for that chart in the link.

In other news, Texas, FL, and the Carolinas continue to lead the nation in net incoming migration thru 2022. OH is flat.

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/econom...-moved-in-2022

I don’t take these studies as gospel, but they often show interesting trends. If nothing else, the large increase in inbound moves to CLE bodes well for the area.

The study claims 46% of moves are for housing reasons. Bear in mind, this article is published by a realty association.

[Jbraybarten653]

While this is interesting, unfortunately the area still struggles significantly.


Cuyahoga county had a net migration loss of over 10,000 in 2021.

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten653

While this is interesting, unfortunately the area still struggles significantly.


Cuyahoga county had a net migration loss of over 10,000 in 2021.

Cuyahoga County had a ''net'' migration loss of over 10,000 in 2021?

The USPS stats reflect a net gain for 2022 for the metro area of which Cuyahoga County is a part of. Cuyahoga County has been bleeding into the adjacent metro and Akron-Canton metro for decades.

There was slight population growth in 2020 Census for the Cleveland metro.

While not determinative, the USPS stats show more inbound than outbound change of addresses.

Interesting that both CLE and CIN saw growth in this report while COL and PIT showed negative numbers, with latter showing the steepest.

That said, the City of Cleveland is seeing strong construction development with (9) high-rise projects under or approved for construction.

This isn't significant struggling.

[SlideRules99]

Well, my post was meant to highlight the positive change in inbound migration rates (pre vs. post pandemic), not to detail any macro population trends.. Regardless, here are the latest population stats for the CLE Metro area.

Year Population Growth Rate

2023 1,764,000 0.17%
2022 1,761,000 0.06%
2021 1,760,000 -0.17%
2020 1,763,000 -0.34%
2019 1,769,000 -0.39%

And the sources

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2...and/population

https://populationstat.com/united-states/cleveland

This would seem to align w/ the study in my original link, which puts CLE Metro as one of the cities with the largest gains in inbound RATES of migration, comparing 2019 vs. 2022 snapshots (pre vs post pandemic). In other words, the area was losing people in 2019…it is gaining people now. And evidently carrying forward to 2023.

IMO, CLE will always lose a certain % of young workers to employment centers in Sun Belt areas (used to be coastal areas…), as well as retirees to places like SC and FL. This in spite of the fact that winters here are benign nowadays.

Inbound migration, ie fresh talent, is important for future vitality - regardless of net population trends.

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by SlideRules99

Well, my post was meant to highlight the positive change in inbound migration rates (pre vs. post pandemic), not to detail any macro population trends.. Regardless, here are the latest population stats for the CLE Metro area.

Year Population Growth Rate

2023 1,764,000 0.17%
2022 1,761,000 0.06%
2021 1,760,000 -0.17%
2020 1,763,000 -0.34%
2019 1,769,000 -0.39%

And the sources

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2...and/population

https://populationstat.com/united-states/cleveland

This would seem to align w/ the study in my original link, which puts CLE Metro as one of the cities with the largest gains in inbound RATES of migration, comparing 2019 vs. 2022 snapshots. In other words, the area was losing people in 2019…it is gaining people now. And evidently carrying forward to 2023.

IMO, CLE will always lose a certain % of young workers to employment centers in Sun Belt areas (used to be coastal areas…), as well as retirees to places like SC and FL. This in spite of the fact that winters here are benign nowadays.

Inbound migration, ie fresh talent, is important for future vitality - regardless of net population trends. Being ranked #5 in the nation is a good thing.

You posted CLE Urban Area population figures not the MSA population. Consider as well that the CLE MSA area is by far the smallest in terms of square miles of OH's 3C metros:

CIN 4,808 sq miles...COL 3,169 sq miles...CLE 1,996 sq miles; the CIN MSA covers almost 2.5 x the land area of the CLE MSA.

All 3C OH cities have MSA populations over 2million+ and the CLE CSA population is 3,633,962 in a larger Northeast Ohio region of about 4.5 million.

Realizing of course that the positive news from the USPS that CLE 2022 inbound migration was larger than outbound migration will not sit well with some folks...lol.

Consider as well that the City of Cleveland is seeing somewhat of a commercial and residential high-rise building boom, along with all the single-family and multi-unit low rise development going in and around the trendy 'hoods. Well in excess of CIN and COL (don't believe CIN has much, if any, city high-rises going up while COL city has the Wexner Medical bldg and the Merchant Bldg. going up.

CLE trendy 'hoods should now include at least University Circle, the north and south sides of the Cleveland Clinic Campus, and AsiaTown (eastern edge of downtown up to the inner belt). Note: all East Side areas. Next up should be Shaker Square, St Clair/Superior, mid-Lorain Avenue up to West Blvd, and Edgewater (between Detroit-Shoreway to W 117th, hopefully trending southward to Madison etc).

[SlideRules99]

Originally Posted by MPK21

You posted CLE Urban Area population figures not the MSA population. Consider as well that the CLE MSA area is by far the smallest in terms of square miles of OH's 3C metros:

OK, fair enough, I couldn’t find MSA population trends through 2022. Do you have that?

[Jbraybarten653]

Originally Posted by MPK21

Cuyahoga County had a ''net'' migration loss of over 10,000 in 2021?

The USPS stats reflect a net gain for 2022 for the metro area of which Cuyahoga County is a part of. Cuyahoga County has been bleeding into the adjacent metro and Akron-Canton metro for decades.

Yes and not sure when the USPS became a source for this. That migration loss doesn't even include natural change, which is often a boost for areas, but this region has a lot of natural decline.

Originally Posted by MPK21

Interesting that both CLE and CIN saw growth in this report while COL and PIT showed negative numbers, with latter showing the steepest.

Hamilton (Cincy) county had a migration net loss of 5,200
Franklin (Col) -9,800

Allegheny county (Pittsburgh) -7,600


I'm sure that Covid made it worse, but it's not good for any of these counties. This is unusual territory for Franklin county in particular, which has consistently had positive net migration for decades.

[SlideRules99]

Back to the original post…it’s about the rate of change of inbound migration (pre vs post pandemic), which is useful and interesting, and the portion I highlighted in the study as relates to CLE metro vs. others.

Population changes and outbound / net are fair topics, but not the main reason I posted this link/discussion.

That said, carry on as you wish…

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten653

Yes and not sure when the USPS became a source for this. That migration loss doesn't even include natural change, which is often a boost for areas, but this region has a lot of natural decline.

Well, no one stated that USPS inbound/outbound is a source, but it is used as a component of population estimates, along with drivers' licenses, utilties etc. The figures you cite are estimates as well.





Hamilton (Cincy) county had a migration net loss of 5,200
Franklin (Col) -9,800

Allegheny county (Pittsburgh) -7,600


I'm sure that Covid made it worse, but it's not good for any of these counties. This is unusual territory for Franklin county in particular, which has consistently had positive net migration for decades.

The Wuhan Virus is the major culprit in these losses, even Dallas County TX and Dade County had an estimated loss and, as you point out, Franklin County OH. New York City is estimated to have lost at least 335,000+ city residents during the pandemic shut-down.


So many large core counties experienced Wuhan Virus declines, especially the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast. Factor in the cost of housing on the West Coast and Northeast along with factors such as remote working, the Floyd Effect crime wave=many folks opted to walk.

This decade will be interesting to see how cities/metropolitan areas recover or continue to recede.

At least the City of Cleveland is seeing somewhat of a high-rise building boom and lots of general residential construction!

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by SlideRules99

Back to the original post…it’s about the rate of change of inbound migration (pre vs post pandemic), which is useful and interesting, and the portion I highlighted in the study as relates to CLE metro vs. others.

Population changes and outbound / net are fair topics, but not the main reason I posted this link/discussion.

That said, carry on as you wish…

Agreed, as I did see this USPS story before you posted it. There was also a story about LinkedIn changes increasing for several metros, including Cleveland, that was, of course, dismissed by many.

That said, the CLE metro did see small growth in the 2020; it's a start. Then came the Wuhan Virus, tanking either metro areas or at least the core urban counties.

Obviously this decade will see which cities, core counties, metros, and CSAs recover...or not.

Again, City of Cleveland is currently undergoing somewhat of a new construction building boom, from Sherwin-Williams, multiple high-rise apartments, to the Cleveland Clinic. Affordability is key.