Joaquin‬ Updates (Wilmington, Southport, Belhaven: power lines, safe, pine)

[ditchoc]

https://www.facebook.com/wxbradWCNC/...86482/?fref=nf

[ditchoc]

This storm is not as big as Fran was in 1996 but there are similarities.

The ground is already saturated. The storm will drop as much as another 12+ inches in some areas of Eastern NC.

Pine trees have shallow roots. When the ground gets this wet, it will not take much wind to blow them over. Forty to sixty mile an hour gusts could reek havoc with trees falling on power lines.

In Fran, some areas went without power for weeks.

Be prepared.

[poppydog]

I think it's more like Isabel, maybe Sandy. Doesn't look like it's coming inland in NC like Fran did. Looks like it may even go out to sea now.

[HP91]

I think ditch may be thinking more Floyd...which had tons of rainfall just prior to making landfall...and had Dennis drop a bunch a rain about two weeks prior.

The ground is absolutely saturated...already reports of flooding in Belhaven and Hobucken this week.

If the storm dropped a bunch of more rain as it goes by, there could be major problems. Where is differs from Floyd though is that Floyd affected more inland communities between I-95 and the Inner Banks with its long term flooding.

[carolinadawg2]

Latest projected track is much further east...may not even make landfall anywhere in the US.

[CouponJack]

Here is the latest blurb from the NHC on the model disagreements from the 11am update:

After 36 hours, the guidance remains
very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models
forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the
Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast
a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to
sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a
generally northward motion.

[Stonecreek67]

It now appears that whatever direction the "hurricane" veers we will have beaucoup rainfall in the Southport/Wilmington area over the next few days.

[ditchoc]

Floyd flooded every thing east of I-95.

Fran knocked down a bizillion pine trees with saturated ground and moderate winds.

Every storm is different ... this one could be similar to Fran or Floyd or both .... hopefully .. neither.

Regardless ... at the boy scouts say .... be prepared

Be safe

[Francois]

There is also a Hurricanes forum on City-Data with threads on Joaquin and other storms. Seem to be a lot of weather geeks talking about it.

[Calvert Hall '62]

So what's going on in the outer banks right now? Maryland is saturated from rain all this past week and I guess the worst is yet to come.