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Winner meets ND in the BCS title game. Loser returns to Atlanta New Years eve to play in the Chick fil-a Bowl against Clemson or some other hapless ACC team, ouch.
UGA is a very good team, but UGA also tends to flop in big games (see 2008 vs Bama, 31-0 at half, wins 41-34).
Bama is also very good, but the A&M game did expose an weakness in the Bama secondary, and a lack of a pass rush.
Both teams are basically equal on offense, with both also having injuries at WR.
This will be a good game, but Bama with the experience of being in big games in regular season (vs Michigan, vs LSU, vs A&M) I think has the edge.
I have liked what I've seen from UGA over the last few weeks a lot more than what I've seen from Alabama, but I am forever cautious about betting against a wizard like Nick Saban.
It's hard to call these games at the college level because there's so much development that takes place. Players mature from week to week in some cases, and one thing I'll never forget as an LSU fan was just how quickly Alabama evolved after losing in OT during the regular season in 2011. Alabama corrected almost every mistake they made in that loss to LSU in Tuscaloosa.
This year's Georgia squad actually reminds me a bit of last year's Alabama team. They seem to be getting a lot better from week to week. They have played great football the last few weeks. The focus seems there. And it's finally catching up with the talent. Watching them play in last year's SEC title game (a thumping loss to LSU), it was clear that Georgia already had loads of talent, and most of that talent is still on that team. That was a team that jumped out to an early 10-0 lead and actually overpowered LSU for most of the first half. They just couldn't finish LSU off. They couldn't deliver the knockout punch early, and they allowed LSU to hang around until Honey Badger and company started turning the tables with some huge plays -- plays that really teams shouldn't count on to win games every week. A young and talented but inexperienced UGA team unraveled in the second half and mentally seemed to break down.
But since that crushing defeat, Georgia has been a completely different team. They won a hard-fought game against their bitter rival to the south (UF), and they have dominated the rest of the field since then. They look like a team that is playing fundamentally sound, balanced football. The question in my mind is, what happens if bad things happen early for Florida? Do they remain composed or do they collapse like they did last year? My gut tells me that the Florida game was their turning point. They found ways to win despite Murray having a bad game, which should in itself be a psychological boost to Murray and the entire team, which now knows that it can win even if it doesn't play flawlessly.
As for Alabama, they have come this far because they have benefited from experience on the offensive line, and also because of the depth at the running back position. They've opened things up more on offense, and McCarron has really developed into a solid QB. But all of that being said, Alabama is still a team that lost a lot of its best talent last year. I'm not convinced that they have filled in those gaps completely, and shutout wins over non-factor teams don't really erase those doubts.
My bottom line is this: if Georgia can just avoid mistakes, or if it can avoid collapsing mentally even if they do make mistakes, I think that they will win this game. I'm going to make the prediction that they do in fact win this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if the margin of victory is larger than we might expect. However, if UGA can't finish drives. If they penalize themselves and take themselves out of field goal range or have to settle for FGs instead of TDs because of penalties, or if they extend Bama's drives for the same reason, then that's going to catch up to them. I'll go with the assumption that they will correct those issues. Georgia 24, Alabama 14.
I have liked what I've seen from UGA over the last few weeks a lot more than what I've seen from Alabama, but I am forever cautious about betting against a wizard like Nick Saban.
Keep in mind over the last 4 weeks Georgia has played Ole Miss, Auburn, Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech so that factors into them looking more impressive. While Alabama hasn't exactly played world beaters the last two weeks they have played their hard games more recently than UGA.
Bama wins IF they can run the ball for more that 4 yrds per rush. UGA gave up 306 yrds rushing to Georgia Tech last week.
UGA wins IF they can complete passes on first or second down, making it 3 down & 4 or less for the offense. The Bama secondary isnt wasnt it was last year, and it showed during the Texas A&M loss.
UGA loses IF they have a bad day in the passing game. Bama has a weak pass rush, but still capable to create turnovers and even get in the backfield time to time.
Bama loses IF they cant stop the UGA rushing attack, setting up play action passing for UGA.
Keep in mind over the last 4 weeks Georgia has played Ole Miss, Auburn, Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech so that factors into them looking more impressive. While Alabama hasn't exactly played world beaters the last two weeks they have played their hard games more recently than UGA.
First of all, Ole Miss is actually not a bad team. I'm not going to say that they're a Florida or an LSU, but they improved during the year, and Georgia stomped all over them. Georgia Southern actually played Alabama last year in one of their final games and managed to score 21 points, whereas Georgia only allowed 14. But the biggest difference is that Georgia beat the only other one-loss team in the SEC; Alabama, on the other hand, lost to A&M and quite nearly lost the week before to LSU. I don't think Alabama has outperformed Georgia as of late. Certainly that was the case early in the season, but not recently.
Bama wins IF they can run the ball for more that 4 yrds per rush. UGA gave up 306 yrds rushing to Georgia Tech last week.
UGA wins IF they can complete passes on first or second down, making it 3 down & 4 or less for the offense. The Bama secondary isnt wasnt it was last year, and it showed during the Texas A&M loss.
UGA loses IF they have a bad day in the passing game. Bama has a weak pass rush, but still capable to create turnovers and even get in the backfield time to time.
Bama loses IF they cant stop the UGA rushing attack, setting up play action passing for UGA.
The key will match-up will probably be Murray vs. Alabama's secondary. Murray has gotten away with average play against the better teams, but he won't be able to do that against Alabama. He will need to have the same kind of breakout game that McCarron had in the BCS title game last year. The Tide only allow 2.8 yards per carry and those are not puffed up stats, either -- they allowed only 2.6 against LSU, which has arguably the deepest backfield in college football. So any notions that Georgia can establish control of the game on the ground are best reconsidered. Richt can't abandon the run - he will need to use it and he'll need to use different players and go to different parts of the field to keep Alabama on its heels. Murray's going to have to hit his spots.
For Georgia to win, they may depend on the defense to set the tone of the game. Georgia needs to stop Alabama's running game, and they need to get to McCarron. They need to be the more physical team - and then they have to execute. The way they came out against LSU last year was pretty hard to argue with. They were prepared. They just couldn't execute. It was a young team that perhaps got caught up in the heat of the moment and couldn't put LSU away. Maybe this year they can finish inside the red zone.
First of all, Ole Miss is actually not a bad team. I'm not going to say that they're a Florida or an LSU, but they improved during the year, and Georgia stomped all over them. Georgia Southern actually played Alabama last year in one of their final games and managed to score 21 points, whereas Georgia only allowed 14. But the biggest difference is that Georgia beat the only other one-loss team in the SEC; Alabama, on the other hand, lost to A&M and quite nearly lost the week before to LSU. I don't think Alabama has outperformed Georgia as of late. Certainly that was the case early in the season, but not recently.
Yes but against quality competition they've both struggled and UGA got boat raced by SCAR. Alabama lost by 5 and was knocking on the door of the endzone but McCarron blinked. And they both share ugly wins over top 10 ten teams. Also Georgia has struggled against the bottom tier of the SEC, they could have lost to Kentucky or Tennessee. I'm firmly in the "a win is a win" camp but both Alabama and UGA have played garbage schedules and struggled against the two good teams they played. So while UGA may have looked good beating up cupcakes I don't forget their struggles against good teams earlier in the season. The only reason UGA's been "more impressive" of late is because they played their two hard games a month earlier than Alabama.
Yes but against quality competition they've both struggled and UGA got boat raced by SCAR. Alabama lost by 5 and was knocking on the door of the endzone but McCarron blinked. And they both share ugly wins over top 10 ten teams. Also Georgia has struggled against the bottom tier of the SEC, they could have lost to Kentucky or Tennessee. I'm firmly in the "a win is a win" camp but both Alabama and UGA have played garbage schedules and struggled against the two good teams they played. So while UGA may have looked good beating up cupcakes I don't forget their struggles against good teams earlier in the season. The only reason UGA's been "more impressive" of late is because they played their two hard games a month earlier than Alabama.
I tend to look at all games, from week 1 until week 14, if I'm interested in judging which teams are most deserving of a spot in the BCS. That's a completely different discussion from which team is the best or the most capable. As I tend to do when I analyze the NFL playoffs, I tend to ignore the W-L records and I even to some degree ignore all of the stats that stat gurus love to munch on around this time of year. Instead, I look at who has won against whom, and in particular, how the team has progressed from one week to the next. I look at how the games were played, the styles of play, and I also take into consideration the match-ups, and the coaching.
Georgia has not played flawlessly - I won't disagree there. They did have an ugly win against UF, but it was so ugly it was beautiful. They sacked Driskel 5 times and forced 6 turnovers. THey were playing soft until that game, but SC was the last straw. They've been a completely different team ever since. There are still some obvious question marks. Can Murray have a breakout game against a quality opponent? Can Georgia pound the ball on third and short? Can they play with discipline and avoid major penalties in key situations that either extend Alabama's drives or kill drives of their own? But Alabama is probably going to play the best combination of raw power and athleticism they've seen all year. LSU is a big bunch of bruisers but they're a bit slow; A&M got physical but relied more on explosive team speed out of the gate. Georgia is pretty well-rounded, and they're playing with an edge.
I tend to look at all games, from week 1 until week 14, if I'm interested in judging which teams are most deserving of a spot in the BCS. That's a completely different discussion from which team is the best or the most capable. As I tend to do when I analyze the NFL playoffs, I tend to ignore the W-L records and I even to some degree ignore all of the stats that stat gurus love to munch on around this time of year. Instead, I look at who has won against whom, and in particular, how the team has progressed from one week to the next. I look at how the games were played, the styles of play, and I also take into consideration the match-ups, and the coaching.
Georgia has not played flawlessly - I won't disagree there. They did have an ugly win against UF, but it was so ugly it was beautiful. They sacked Driskel 5 times and forced 6 turnovers. THey were playing soft until that game, but SC was the last straw. They've been a completely different team ever since. There are still some obvious question marks. Can Murray have a breakout game against a quality opponent? Can Georgia pound the ball on third and short? Can they play with discipline and avoid major penalties in key situations that either extend Alabama's drives or kill drives of their own? But Alabama is probably going to play the best combination of raw power and athleticism they've seen all year. LSU is a big bunch of bruisers but they're a bit slow; A&M got physical but relied more on explosive team speed out of the gate. Georgia is pretty well-rounded, and they're playing with an edge.
Well Kentucky and Florida both came after SCAR. I can respect a gritty team that sometimes wins ugly, I am a Notre Dame fan after all, but there's just something about the UGA team that is missing. I guess I don't trust Murray or Richt to come up big in the spotlight. On paper UGA might be the better team, they've got NFL talent all over the place but they just seem undisciplined to me. I don't know I could be wrong but I just don't trust UGA to come up big when it counts. Whereas Saban and Alabama seem to always come up big when it really counts.
It all hinges on Murray in my opinion. I think their defense will come to play. But if SCAR game Murray steps on the field they might as well just hand the SEC trophy to Alabama because it will be a long day for them.
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