I wonder where the bottom is going to be? (Denver: ski resort, real estate)

[proveick]

Property values plummet in Colorado ski resort communities - The Denver Post
Timing is everything.

[jazzlover]

It's just nearly 20 years of speculative silliness coming to a close. Too bad it didn't happen sooner. The bottom? Who knows? Maybe when the Chinese come in and start buying it all up. Bet that'll tick everybody off--when Americans, including Coloradans, won't be able to afford to vacation in Colorado resorts anymore.

[Mike from back east]

Back in the mid-1980's, a lot of primo properties in Hawaii got bought up by Japanese. Then the Japanese stock bubble burst and many of those folks had to sell quickly, at a loss. Back in the same time frame the Japanese even bought up Pebble Beach golf course, a national gem, but sold it back to Americans a few years later for half what they paid. The same sort of cycle can be found in the glamorous mountain areas of COLO.

The cyclic story of boom, bust, boom, bust, is nothing new and will repeat itself over time, with the winners and losers changing places with each cycle. Unless one is a player in that world there's no need to gloat or worry about it as that's just the way it is and always has been.

Edit: Regarding the cyclicality of economies, the rise and fall and rise again nature of it all, here's a report which posits that manufacturing is coming back to the USA, for a variety of reasons. I don't want this thread to discuss manufacturing or national economic issues, but it does illustrate the boom/bust nature of things. When robustness returns to our economy, in force, those mountain properties will rise in value again, until the next cycle.

[GStone777]

QUOTE=GStone777;18899160]Don't worry about outside money coming to Colorado. If the US Dollar devalues enough there are about 100 million Chinese and other foreigners who can't wait to leave the unimaginably intolerable conditions in their own countries to move here and telecommute. This may sound unrealistic but I have met 2 Chinese families and know of 1 other that moved to the area where I live either to retire, work or telecommute. They will bring skills as well as a change of demographics that may make Colorado look very different in as little as 20 or 30 years.[/quote]

Like I said. If they devalue the dollar enough we will become to cheap to resist.

[GStone777]

The above being from "People Moving In Faster Than Jobs Are Created" 4/26/2011--Page 3

[proveick]

I think you might be right GStone777. That exact thing happened back home in Alberta. Much of Banff was bought up by the Japanese in the 80's.

[Idunn]

"It's unfortunate for those who are trying to sell," Zeeb said. "My concern is what the next move will be from the county's perspective. Real-estate tax is a significant portion of funding for the county, and that's a big hit for them to take." [1]


These declining real estate values are unfortunate for some, although in whole my feeling this near depression has had some definite positives as well.

For one, it put a quick halt to speculation and some unfortunate trends in growth. Despite the mindset of many American's, more is not always better. Some of the negatives are evident in such things as questionable developments, communities not always successfully trying to adjust to rapid growth and demand for services, not to mention many locals being priced out of their own communities, etc.

One might also wonder how these counties should be suffering that much from the associated decline in real estate taxes. Less revenue, but only in relation to a couple years ago, and otherwise possibly still equal to what was inflated even ten years ago. How can schools be suffering when they possibly have now fewer pupils to teach, unless the windfall revenue recently came to be an expected given? I am still mindful of the many one-room schools that populated Colorado history, and the many emerging from such humble circumstances with sound educations.

In short, no one probably likes to downsize, but learning to live in a more balanced manner would do many of us a lot of good, as well as possibly our experience of this fine state.

1) 'Property values plummet in Colorado ski resort communities,' The Denver Post
Property values plummet in Colorado ski resort communities - The Denver Post

[wanneroo]

I couldn't believe the massive amount of real estate development in Beaver Creek and Vail and then to some extent Summit County and Aspen, that took place from 1999 to when I left in 2007. Whole communities of hundreds of multi million dollar properties. There are just not enough people of that wealth and people that also want to spend part of their wealth on a property in the Colorado Mountains.

Back in 2006 me and a friend were doing transportation for a very well known developer in Vail and he was taking VIP's around on tours of the property under construction. My friend and I were avid readers and we'd heard about over building of condos in Florida and the bust already starting there. He said to me, "it looks to me they are hurrying to complete this project, because a bust is coming soon". I said I agree completely.

Sure enough that property today is still struggling to sell it's units as a big markdown and a property nearby has 60 units and they never sold a one.

I think a lot of people are holding on, but prices keep slipping downwards.

With people in the know in Vail, the general consensus is the market is flat for a generation.

[CAVA1990]

You wonder why anyone would want to dump all that money into a second home and be tied down with it, especially if it's not appreciating. Just the taxes and maintenance would buy you some pretty nice vacations anywhere you felt like going.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

You wonder why anyone would want to dump all that money into a second home and be tied down with it, especially if it's not appreciating. Just the taxes and maintenance would buy you some pretty nice vacations anywhere you felt like going.

Which reminds me of my oft-stated rant about RENTING such "luxuries" rather than tying up wealth by buying them, i.e., RVs, boats, horses, planes, vacation homes, jet skis, and other such things. Rent for a few hours, days, weeks, then walk away from it - still solvent.