Will Columbus become largest Ohio metro? (Cleveland, Cincinnati: closing, rail, design)

[brock2010]

This question is just hypothetical and a spin off of a thread I started in the general Ohio forum. As you know, Columbus is the largest city in the state and growing faster than Cleveland or Cincinnati but do you think it'll ever be the largest metro in Ohio?

[jbcmh81]

Without any future combinations of other metros, yes. It's only a matter of time. Columbus passed Cleveland's MSA already. At the current rates of change, Columbus would pass up Cincinnati between 2022 and 2023, so only 3 or 4 years from now. Any small changes could make that a little sooner or later, but it's unlikely to be much longer than 2025 at most.

[1watertiger]

As we know msa's and csa's are very subject so I'm not getting into that argument.
However, Northeast Ohio comprises almost half the states population and without a doubt has the most continuous urban development whether that be urban cities urban suburban or sprawling suburbia. Cincinnati is easily the second largest metro with continuous urban development and sprawl. And currently Columbus is easily a distant third. I highly doubt central Ohio will ever become a Northeast Ohio or Southwest Ohio but only Time will tell.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by 1watertiger

As we know msa's and csa's are very subject so I'm not getting into that argument.
However, Northeast Ohio comprises almost half the states population and without a doubt has the most continuous urban development whether that be urban cities urban suburban or sprawling suburbia. Cincinnati is easily the second largest metro with continuous urban development and sprawl. And currently Columbus is easily a distant third. I highly doubt central Ohio will ever become a Northeast Ohio or Southwest Ohio but only Time will tell.

This is an example of people just making up whatever definitions they want. NEO or SEO are neither metros nor CSAs. They are unofficial regions of the state that have no specifically defined areas. There are no national or local peers to compare to, and are therefore useless to use in such comparisons.

If you want to talk about urbanized areas, which are real and measure the population in continuous urban development, those are only counted once a decade by the Census. In 2010, Columbus was 257,000 behind Cincinnati and 412,000 behind Cleveland. The Demographia website does estimates for this every year, however. For 2018, Columbus was only 220,000 behind Cleveland and 135,000 behind Cincinnati, so at least according to that, the gap has rapidly been closing. So by that metric, the numbers would suggest another decade or so before Columbus catches up and eventually passes them.

So the only official designation Columbus won't pass within the next 10 years is Cleveland's CSA.

[Losfrisco]

What I find most interesting about this discussion is that Columbus used to be a relatively dense urban city with rail transit up until the end of the Vietnam war. In the interest of "making it big", they dismantled that in favor of becoming a megaburbia.

That said, there certainly doesn't seem to be anything stopping them from becoming the largest metro, as they don't have the geographic or administrative boundaries that constrain CIN or CLE.

If there is something stopping this, it will come from within. There are no 3 million + MSA's that don't have some kind of serious mass transit plan laid down, which is a perpetual non-starter in C-bus.

[Kamms]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

What I find most interesting about this discussion is that Columbus used to be a relatively dense urban city with rail transit up until the end of the Vietnam war. In the interest of "making it big", they dismantled that in favor of becoming a megaburbia.

That said, there certainly doesn't seem to be anything stopping them from becoming the largest metro, as they don't have the geographic or administrative boundaries that constrain CIN or CLE.

If there is something stopping this, it will come from within. There are no 3 million + MSA's that don't have some kind of serious mass transit plan laid down, which is a perpetual non-starter in C-bus.

Columbus is getting ''smart transit''...apps and computers driving people around in small vehicles.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

What I find most interesting about this discussion is that Columbus used to be a relatively dense urban city with rail transit up until the end of the Vietnam war. In the interest of "making it big", they dismantled that in favor of becoming a megaburbia.

That said, there certainly doesn't seem to be anything stopping them from becoming the largest metro, as they don't have the geographic or administrative boundaries that constrain CIN or CLE.

If there is something stopping this, it will come from within. There are no 3 million + MSA's that don't have some kind of serious mass transit plan laid down, which is a perpetual non-starter in C-bus.

As far as you know, are there any plans to restart rail transit in Columbus?

[Kamms]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

What I find most interesting about this discussion is that Columbus used to be a relatively dense urban city with rail transit up until the end of the Vietnam war. In the interest of "making it big", they dismantled that in favor of becoming a megaburbia.

That said, there certainly doesn't seem to be anything stopping them from becoming the largest metro, as they don't have the geographic or administrative boundaries that constrain CIN or CLE.

If there is something stopping this, it will come from within. There are no 3 million + MSA's that don't have some kind of serious mass transit plan laid down, which is a perpetual non-starter in C-bus.

Define ''rail transit up until the end of the Viet Nam War''? You're talking about Amtrak? Viet Nam War ended in 1975. Otherwise, what rail tranist into the mid-'70s are you talking about?

[I_am_Father_McKenzie]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Just curious. What level of population will Columbus water supplies support? Do you expect to pipe Lake Erie water to Columbus, despite international treaties prohibiting such diversions?

You really think Columbus is going to run out of water? They're way ahead of you on that; building additional reservoirs since 1993. With total precipitation trending up the last 30 years I don't see this as an issue. Keep digging, though. Y'all have something new every time.

[DevolsDance]

Opening this can of worms again... Always an experience.

Well, in terms of MSA, Columbus is within distance of Cincinnati and passed Cleveland a year or two ago. So, realistically yes, Columbus will likely become Ohio's largest city in terms of City Proper and MSA by 2025.

CSA is an entirely different beast that isn't being asked about here. It gets very muddy, like city proper muddy once you go into CSA because, it's just so far flung for some cities and not for others. MSA is probably second to urbanized population in terms of understanding the size of a city. Not debating this, just seems to be the general consensus.

Either way, currently Columbus' urbanized population is increasing, overall density is increasing, population growth is accelerating, GDP is growing, cultural amenities are growing and no, its not running out of water any time soon (is that even a serious question). The interesting thing will be seeing how Columbus adapts to the momentum and boom it seems to be entering. Traffic, housing, and labor all seem to be emerging issues that will need addressed in the very immediate future.