[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

11pm update...Direct hit on NYC with a Hurricane. (H) ..M = Major Cat 3 or above. We feared it would miss North Carolina and keep its strength to hit us.

That looks so ominous..

[Stylo]

[andthentherewere3]

If it hits Ct. as a direct hit as a Cat 1 hurricane, what sort of winds are we looking at? Surely not 90 mph? I remember Gloria, I was in Stamford, and it wasn't catastrophic, just windy with a lot of rain. Floyd was less windy. I suppose your location and the path of Irene would make a huge difference, though.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

If it hits Ct. as a direct hit as a Cat 1 hurricane, what sort of winds are we looking at? Surely not 90 mph? I remember Gloria, I was in Stamford, and it wasn't catastrophic, just windy with a lot of rain. Floyd was less windy. I suppose your location and the path of Irene would make a huge difference, though.

Cat 1 are winds between 74-95mph.(I say 70-90). Thats not gusts...Thats sustained meaning constant until it passes... But...... Those winds are usually around the eye wall (or center of storm)..

So it all depends how big the center is and how strong it is south of us.

So if Long Island gets the landfall then CT wont feel the extreme effects of the Cat 1 winds but still have "GUSTS" up to 70.

The other thing to look at is the extend of the winds...Right now
"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES

[Cambium]

5am Hurricane Irene Update:

Now a Cat 2 again. Winds are up. pressure keeps dropping. Maintaining a slow pace of 9mph.

LOCATION...21.6N 72.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[Cambium]

Good news: Irene moving forward at 9mph is allowing a trough to move East and the trough could actually be bigger then anticipated which will nudge Irene East more.

BAD NEWS: It stays over the water more and keeps the storm stronger. Hence why the models are now starting to show a STRONGER storm for us.

Here's the latest GFS. 959mb low.

[Cambium]

Since there is nothing to completely push Irene OTS, it's becoming more imminent as a hit on Long Island and New England..

So here's a good link to keep handy regarding preperations.

Click the "How to" link and then on the left hand side there's a bunch of helpful tips on emergency situations. http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/hu_before.shtm

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Since there is nothing to completely push Irene OTS, it's becoming more imminent as a hit on Long Island and New England..

So here's a good link to keep handy regarding preperations.

Click the "How to" link and then on the left hand side there's a bunch of helpful tips on emergency situations. http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/hu_before.shtm

More east...., that trend has been the theme of every model run. Amazing how hard it is to keep a hurricane on a north or west of due north track over 35 degrees north.

[Csiko]

8 AM advisory puts her at Cat 3. That was fast!

She's still moving so slowly, though.

[Cambium]

A worse case senario is being played out with this Hurricane. Long Island and new England are in the cross fires now...

Here's the max wind speed forecasted with this one model (I havent checked the rest-many dont supply wind forecasts)

Over 100mph in parts of CT.