[alexei27]

Originally Posted by jp03

Wow..although its an east trend, the models are all over the place after 72 hours..anywhere from NYC to Cape Cod could be the hot slot. There is a chance according to a couple models it could reach the Outer Banks and turn straight north to NYC. 2 respected models have it completely missing New England to the East,..stay tuned...geez

You are right the two models with the northerly (and more westerly track) are two of the more respected. This one is really tough!!

[jp03]

Originally Posted by alexei27

You are right the two models with the northerly (and more westerly track) are two of the more respected. This one is really tough!!

Yea..its gonna be one to watch..I suspect southeastern Mass is gonna get the worst of this. Nantucket Block Island..I think CT will get a ton of rain but this storms western side is not that strong right now. Many questions yet. I wish I was up there for this one..silly as it sounds.

[7 Wishes]

NWS OKX had "trop storm conditions possible" in most coastal locations throughout the tri-state area when I checked at 8am, but now they only show that for eastern LI and eastern CT, with "heavy rain and wind" for the rest. Makes me think they're thinking it's going to go further east.....

[alexei27]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

NWS OKX had "trop storm conditions possible" in most coastal locations throughout the tri-state area when I checked at 8am, but now they only show that for eastern LI and eastern CT, with "heavy rain and wind" for the rest. Makes me think they're thinking it's going to go further east.....

The wording "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" is based on probabilities from the NHC. If the probabilities meet a certain threshold, then those words appear.

So they are tied to the track, and the wording is actually governed by the NHC, so we have one authoritative source.

The problem with those text forecasts is that the NHC probabilities only are generated for 5 days. The OKX forecast goes out 7 days. So, on day 6, the tropical words disappear. It's frustrating but we can't put them in without a supporting NHC probability. Since we're within 5 days now, the wording will be consistent.

The new forecast for the Long Island forks now has "Hurricane Conditions Possible" for Sunday, and Tropical Storm possible for Sunday night.

Coastal New London County remains at "Tropical Storm conditions" due to the eastward shift of the track.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by alexei27

The wording "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" is based on probabilities from the NHC. If the probabilities meet a certain threshold, then those words appear.

So they are tied to the track, and the wording is actually governed by the NHC, so we have one authoritative source.

The problem with those text forecasts is that the NHC probabilities only are generated for 5 days. The OKX forecast goes out 7 days. So, on day 6, the tropical words disappear. It's frustrating but we can't put them in without a supporting NHC probability. Since we're within 5 days now, the wording will be consistent.

The new forecast for the Long Island forks now has "Hurricane Conditions Possible" for Sunday, and Tropical Storm possible for Sunday night.

Coastal New London County remains at "Tropical Storm conditions" due to the eastward shift of the track.

Yes, just noticed the new forecast, which also has the "Tropical Storm conditions possible" for every coastal part of the tri-state area. I spoke too soon! But yesterday, the words were in there so it's not the 7 day vs. 5 day issue.....

[OhBeeHave]

Originally Posted by alexei27

The wording "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" is based on probabilities from the NHC. If the probabilities meet a certain threshold, then those words appear.

So they are tied to the track, and the wording is actually governed by the NHC, so we have one authoritative source.

The problem with those text forecasts is that the NHC probabilities only are generated for 5 days. The OKX forecast goes out 7 days. So, on day 6, the tropical words disappear. It's frustrating but we can't put them in without a supporting NHC probability. Since we're within 5 days now, the wording will be consistent.

The new forecast for the Long Island forks now has "Hurricane Conditions Possible" for Sunday, and Tropical Storm possible for Sunday night.

Coastal New London County remains at "Tropical Storm conditions" due to the eastward shift of the track.

Debating whether to head to VT or weather it out on LI. This Irene has me biting my nails!

[Csiko]

Starting to pick up speed a little bit now, it's my personal feeling that how fast it moves today and tomorrow will really determine where it lands. 2-3 models still show it headed for NYC, and the other 4-5 show it hitting Rhode Island...

[jp03]

Originally Posted by OhBeeHave

Debating whether to head to VT or weather it out on LI. This Irene has me biting my nails!

I'd wait a couple more model runs///

[Csiko]

Just heard TWC saying a 1 in 3 chance of her becoming a category 5, although probably briefly. :/

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Csiko

Just heard TWC saying a 1 in 3 chance of her becoming a category 5, although probably briefly. :/

Another disturbing factor is the fact a heavy rain bout will occur Thursday/night pre Irene