[Angelic_Avalon]

I would assume it be more west

[Cambium]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL

[wavehunter007]

I hate to say it…but at this point, Irene looks to me like a classic Bahamas to eastern Long Island/eastern Connecticut run…much like Carol (1954), Donna (1960), and Bob (1991). I don't think it will hit west of Fire Island National Seashore/New Haven like Gloria (1985), Belle (1976), or the 1938 Hurricane. I think there is little chance now of a big easterly swing out to sea around the Outer Banks or Delaware Bay. It’s kind of sad, but with the bad economy, the last thing the USA needs is a weather disaster.

One of the other things that is a bit concerning to me that hasn’t been mentioned - no matter what the eventual track of Irene (on the coastal plain, just off shore, 50 miles off shore…etc), as hurricanes gain latitude their intensity comes down to some degree often…but their wind field (the size of the cyclone) increases. Irene is already a large hurricane and it is the deep tropics, I can only imagine how big Irene will grow as it gets north of 30 latitude.

[Angelic_Avalon]

Since it is not going out eastward, let it go farther westward maybe to PA so we dont get the worst but just the outter part of the storm. Not to be mean, but seriously...

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Angelic_Avalon

Since it is not going out eastward, let it go farther westward maybe to PA so we dont get the worst but just the outter part of the storm. Not to be mean, but seriously...

It could still go out eastward, that's just highly unlikely. It is almost guaranteed to not go much further westward.

Some of the models have been completely bipolar about where they want to place the storm up here. :/

I know people don't want to hear it but TWC has been hyping this up to be similar to the Long Island Express. So it goes, I guess. Get to experience an earthquake and a once-a-century hurricane all in the same week.

Just be glad we have all the time in the world to prepare.

[Stylo]

LIE was a category 3.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by mkiv808

LIE was a category 3.

And it was FLYING...The weather channel can hype it as that but this will not be a 120 MPH wind speed with 50 MPH forward speed slamming into Long Island. That storm was a freak./.

[kidyankee764]

Trying to figure out if we should fly home from STT on Saturday, or attempt to get as close as possible to CT on Sunday....or be stuck in the Caribbean for a few days. Bah.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I hate to say it…but at this point, Irene looks to me like a classic Bahamas to eastern Long Island/eastern Connecticut run…much like Carol (1954), Donna (1960), and Bob (1991). I don't think it will hit west of Fire Island National Seashore/New Haven like Gloria (1985), Belle (1976), or the 1938 Hurricane. I think there is little chance now of a big easterly swing out to sea around the Outer Banks or Delaware Bay. It’s kind of sad, but with the bad economy, the last thing the USA needs is a weather disaster.

One of the other things that is a bit concerning to me that hasn’t been mentioned - no matter what the eventual track of Irene (on the coastal plain, just off shore, 50 miles off shore…etc), as hurricanes gain latitude their intensity comes down to some degree often…but their wind field (the size of the cyclone) increases. Irene is already a large hurricane and it is the deep tropics, I can only imagine how big Irene will grow as it gets north of 30 latitude.

Actually, National Hurricane Center shifted it WAY west on the 11am run......now seems to show landfall on NC mainland (NOT just Outer Banks) as a CAT 3 and it's 2nd landfall on the Delmarva as a Cat 1 or 2.

While not as bad for our area as a "direct hit" (and also means it will weaken a lot more than originally thought before it gets here with more land before it gets here), it definitely puts all of us on the east end of the "wind shield", which is usually the windier side. Note on my link that if you click on "Tropical Storm wind probability" it is starting to get pretty high for here and is higher than in past runs.

It would mean less (but still a LOT) of rain, but a lot more rain west of the eye; so major flooding not as much here but places like upstate NY, east/central PA, etc......a lot like Agnes in 1972 but further west.

It seems to be giving me trouble pasting the image so here's the link (keep in mind at 2pm it will probably update):

Hurricane IRENE

I also noticed that the turn to NNW I mentioned earlier has happened.

[Angelic_Avalon]

I heard weather channel say Euro model showing Washington DC in direct hit??? hmmmm I can only image that national washington monument blown over since there are crack on it... oh geez