[OhBeeHave]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

Stop with the hyperbole Cambium. Were talking about a fast moving tropical storm moving through on a Sunday afternoon. I predict less power outages from this than last March's Nor'easter. Ridiculous.

For those of us further south (LI) who've dealt with the damage from Gloria, who remember being without power for as much as 7-10 days, who had trees fall on their homes - this is not hyperbole.

If this should hit us like '38 did, the damage is going to be mind-boggling.

Earlier on the news they were discussing Wall St, many of the insurance companies and the huge losses they could be paying out on.

[JViello]

If the storm comes in with the Northeast side staying East of central CT, the storm surge in LI Sound is going to be a big...BIG issue. It wouldn't surprise me if we see a 15 foot storm surge as once the water gets shoved into the Sound, it's got no where to go.

We are going to board up my inlaws house on the water in Clinton, but the real threat for them is storm surge as they are 5.5 feet above sea level.

[Konig1985]

Originally Posted by JViello

If the storm comes in with the Northeast side staying East of central CT, the storm surge in LI Sound is going to be a big...BIG issue. It wouldn't surprise me if we see a 15 foot storm surge as once the water gets shoved into the Sound, it's got no where to go.

We are going to board up my inlaws house on the water in Clinton, but the real threat for them is storm surge as they are 5.5 feet above sea level.

5.5 feet? Isn't that really just sea level?

[Nightmary]

IF the power is out for 7 to 10 days will stores be open? Will banks work or do we need to plan on cash only for that long?

[Dallascaper]

Originally Posted by JViello

If the storm comes in with the Northeast side staying East of central CT, the storm surge in LI Sound is going to be a big...BIG issue. It wouldn't surprise me if we see a 15 foot storm surge as once the water gets shoved into the Sound, it's got no where to go.

We are going to board up my inlaws house on the water in Clinton, but the real threat for them is storm surge as they are 5.5 feet above sea level.

The front door of my business is 12 feet above sea level - and is located about 100 feet from a saltwater marsh connected to the sound. I'm a bit concerned.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Cambium, your 5am update from NHC still seems to have it hugging the coast towards NYC, even more so than last night (when it seemed a little more to the west of here). Though NWS forecast seems to be thinking like the GFS, that the "hurricane conditions" would be late Sat. night into Sun. morning rather than later Sunday. I guess we just have to watch and be vigilant and prepared.

BTW, Cambium, interesting coincidence about the 1944 earthquake vs. the Great Atlantic Hurricane you noted (for those who keep reading that the '44 quake was centered in NY, it was not NYC, it was way up near the Canadian border north of the Adirondacks.

I still think this storms eye will go over Eastern L.I. or possibly even Rhode Island..just a gut feeling.

[Cambium]

Just found out that The new windows I bought in 2007 will withstand 80mph maybe more according to the manufactuer. I guess I'll be plywooding saturday. North and East side only. Ugh

But first off to New Rochelle to hook up a time lapse camera by the water. Hope it gets the photos of the event.

[Angelic_Avalon]

I dont know, but I feel excited with this storm... not sure why?

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

8am update seems to have pushed it a little more east, though just a little. Still moving N at 14 mph.



Though I've been noting about "overhype" I wouldn't say that at all! I personally think this will be similar to Floyd, which still means a lot of flooding and power outages, I wouldn't call that storm "catastrophic" for this region, but I'd hardly call it a "bad thunderstorm" either. However, I do think it is obvious there is enough of a chance for this to be a true "hurricane" for the region that the preparations, gov't actions, etc. are not wrong to do. We have our flashlights and radios ready and bought enough (but not a crazy amount) of nonperishable food that doesn't require electricity to prepare, and I also parked my car in a space that is not near any trees and power lines and plan to leave it there (we have one indoor garage space in our condo where the other car is and fortunately we don't have a situation between now and the storm where both I and my wife need to use separate cars so we can use that car today and tomorrow).

I just don't want people to think that in my post about recent Cat 1's and "near hurricanes" that came within 50-75 miles of NYC that I am stating something like the above poster. Far from it!

Just to give you my take on this….(or more accurately, my guess):

I disagree – Irene is no Floyd. Irene will strike the Long Island, Conn, Rhode Island, NJ… MUCH harder than Floyd back in 1999. As I thought a few days ago, Irene is heading right for Hatteras Village in the next 24 hours. I think the 942 - 945 mb pressure is significant in that the cyclone is just now starting to feel the effect of the super warm Gulf Stream, so I think a 120-mph hurricane will near the Outer Banks in the next 24 hours.

After that, Irene will move just slightly east of due north…crossing the USA coastline across Fire Island National Seashore (give or take 10 miles) and into Connecticut near Milford or so. Irene will have sustined winds of near 100 mph at landfall in NY/CT (as opposed to 65 mph that Floyd had). Also, Irene just might produce the largest storm surge on Long Island/RI/CT since 1938 for the following reasons:

1) Irene is coming on a spring (not neap) tide – meaning tides are already running above normal. Irene is so large, with such a large wind field (TS winds extend out 290 miles!) that swells will be reaching the coastal waters later today…by Saturday there will be huge swells heading into the coastal waters. With Irene moving slower than is typical for a upper East Coast hurricane, we are going to go through at least two high tide cycles as the eye of Irene gets closer (the eye could even strike right at the moment of high tide).

2) Low Pressure – 945 Mb is quite a low pressure for an East Coast Hurricane at this latitude. With the pressure so low, the cyclone will build a higher than average dome of water in its right front sector. Irene could (and should) maintain or even deepen some from now until the eye cross over Hatteras Village. So I think Irene could come ashore across Long Island with a pressure as low as 955 mb (meaning it would only weaken slowly north of Virginia Beach). The deeper the storm, the higher the dome of the storm surge.

All morning long I have been watching the talking heads in media (who “think” they know about the hurricane history of the Northeast). They all keep saying things like “it will only be a cat 1 with maybe 90-mph winds by the time it reaches LI/CT…etc. What they fail to understand - is that about 8 of of 10 hurricanes that have EVER crossed eastern LI/eastern CT – since 1900 had the strongest winds and highest storm surge out over the ocean or in far eastern sections - (RI - Cape and Islands). Bob (1991), Donna (1960), Carol (1954), Edna (1954), and the 1944 Hurricane did this. Only the 1938 Hurricane, Hurricane Belle (a weak 75-mph hurricane when it hit LI), and Hurricane Gloria (85-mph at landfall) struck in a way that the bulk of the eastern half of the cyclone hit a large part of Connecticut.

If (and who really knows at this point) Irene strikes central Long Island/central Connecticut coast with 90- 100-mph sustained winds…and the eastern half of the storm passes over much of Connecticut, Irene will produce far greater damage than most people think.

.

[lovebrentwood]

Here is some info from North Carolina about hurricane preparedness, FWIW:

NC Department of Crime Control and Public Safety

I posted some tips in the NYC thread about Irene and about water availability during Irene.