[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Which would make it Gloria......

I cant see how this would be possible. If it stays inland up the coastal plain it would lose strength over land . If it stays out to sea and keeps its strength it would already have made its recurve and be gone. The only way it could possibly even be a cat 1 is if it hits land about Hatteras and RACES up the coast. This is not the type of CT landfalling hurricane where wind will be a factor. I am suspicious to the fact that it may miss CT altogether. Every model run has shown an eastward trend..

Gloria came in from the Atlantic reached the Hatteras area and paralleled the coast..this storm cant do that its too far west at the turn.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

I cant see how this would be possible. If it stays inland up the coastal plain it would lose strength over land . If it stays out to sea and keeps its strength it would already have made its recurve and be gone. The only way it could possibly even be a cat 1 is if it hits land about Hatteras and RACES up the coast. This is not the type of CT landfalling hurricane where wind will be a factor. I am suspicious to the fact that it may miss CT altogether. Every model run has shown an eastward trend..

Gloria came in from the Atlantic reached the Hatteras area and paralleled the coast..this storm cant do that its too far west at the turn.

I meant in the sense of a Cat 2 hitting us. The track that it's taking (since it would lose strength over land) is more a Floyd or even a Bertha or Agnes. In that sense you are probably right, virtually anything that actually came here as a hurricane had a path such that the Northeast was its first landfall (i.e. Gloria, the 1938 hurricane, etc.).

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I meant in the sense of a Cat 2 hitting us. The track that it's taking (since it would lose strength over land) is more a Floyd or even a Bertha or Agnes. In that sense you are probably right, virtually anything that actually came here as a hurricane had a path such that the Northeast was its first landfall (i.e. Gloria, the 1938 hurricane, etc.).

Yea thats all i was saying..all those storms were devastating due to rain....you will still see gusts up to 40 -50 near the coast though if it tracks the coastal plain....but cat 2? no way ..its just not possible even if a model did indicate it.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I meant in the sense of a Cat 2 hitting us. The track that it's taking (since it would lose strength over land) is more a Floyd or even a Bertha or Agnes. In that sense you are probably right, virtually anything that actually came here as a hurricane had a path such that the Northeast was its first landfall (i.e. Gloria, the 1938 hurricane, etc.).

Although the concern level is rising…I would not push the panic button just yet along the East Coast of the USA. However, don’t doubt yourself, at this point - Irene has the CHANCE to hit anywhere between Hilton Head, SC and Cape Cod, MA right now.

The biggest question remains how the trough of low pressure… which will move across the Eastern USA on Wed/Thur… will affect Hurricane Irene (track and intensity). The timing and strength of this trough and the intensity of Irene by the time it reaches/interacts with the trough - will determine how quick Irene turns away from the USA eastern seaboard/coastal plain. AT THIS POINT - NO ONE KNOWS THIS FOR SURE.

Having watched many of these paths over the years (despite what the models might show now), with each run the forecast track of Irene will continue to turn eastward and parallel the East Coast of Florida and Georgia, and South Carolina in the coming day or so. The area from Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks is the most likely area to be brushed as Irene turns northward. As far as further up the coast from the Virginia Beach, VA to Long Island/Connecticut - if the trough passes by too quickly (and it looks like a fair bet at this point it just might do that)…then Irene would stay about 100 miles off the East Coast and cross the USA coastline around Long Island or Rhode Island. it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction (often more). The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida and Georgia. One thing that I think will happen no matter how close/off shore Irene gets to Long Island/CT - the humidty will start rising by this weekend and swells will start to hit the Rhode Island and Long Island beachs by late week. The surfers will be out in force at Ruggles (lol).

As far as intensity…since Irene is in a low shear/high moisture region, Irene will likely intensify into a major hurricane in the next day or so. Irene is still disorganized on its south side because of interaction with Hispaniola and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. SST are near 85 F along the track the cyclone will take, so it is likely that winds could reach 120-mph in the southeastern Bahamas in the coming days (lets hope not). Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane.

Finally from a historical perspective…Irene however is a wimp compared to Floyd (1999) at this point: Hurricane Floyd was a rare event. Right now Irene has winds of 100 mph and a pressure of 981 mb (28.96 in).

AT the time of this sat pic…Hurricane Floyd had sustained winds of 155 mph (dropsonds reported gusts to 210-mph) and a pressure of 921 mb (27.13 in)…and was 500 miles wide, Floyd one of the largest tropical cyclones ever observed off the East Coast of the USA:




.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Although the concern level is rising…I would not push the panic button just yet along the East Coast of the USA. However, don’t doubt yourself, at this point - Irene has the CHANCE to hit anywhere between Hilton Head, SC and Cape Cod, MA right now.

The biggest question remains how the trough of low pressure… which will move across the Eastern USA on Wed/Thur… will affect Hurricane Irene (track and intensity). The timing and strength of this trough and the intensity of Irene by the time it reaches/interacts with the trough - will determine how quick Irene turns away from the USA eastern seaboard/coastal plain. AT THIS POINT - NO ONE KNOWS THIS FOR SURE.

Having watched many of these paths over the years (despite what the models might show now), with each run the forecast track of Irene will continue to turn eastward and parallel the East Coast of Florida and Georgia, and South Carolina in the coming day or so. The area from Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks is the most likely area to be brushed as Irene turns northward. As far as further up the coast from the Virginia Beach, VA to Long Island/Connecticut - if the trough passes by too quickly (and it looks like a fair bet at this point it just might do that)…then Irene would stay about 100 miles off the East Coast and cross the USA coastline around Long Island or Rhode Island. it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction (often more). The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida and Georgia. One thing that I think will happen no matter how close/off shore Irene gets to Long Island/CT - the humidty will start rising by this weekend and swells will start to hit the Rhode Island and Long Island beachs by late week. The surfers will be out in force at Ruggles (lol).

As far as intensity…since Irene is in a low shear/high moisture region, Irene will likely intensify into a major hurricane in the next day or so. Irene is still disorganized on its south side because of interaction with Hispaniola and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. SST are near 85 F along the track the cyclone will take, so it is likely that winds could reach 120-mph in the southeastern Bahamas in the coming days (lets hope not). Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane.

Finally from a historical perspective…Irene however is a wimp compared to Floyd (1999) at this point: Hurricane Floyd was a rare event. Right now Irene has winds of 100 mph and a pressure of 981 mb (28.96 in).

AT the time of this sat pic…Hurricane Floyd had sustained winds of 155 mph (dropsonds reported gusts to 210-mph) and a pressure of 921 mb (27.13 in)…and was 500 miles wide, Floyd one of the largest tropical cyclones ever observed off the East Coast of the USA:




.

But Floyd also started weakening before landfall..this one may ramp up toward landfall. The idea of this turning off the Cape Hatteras coast is becoming more and more a possibility. The forecast does not reflect it I guess but each model run is going east east east...

[Cambium]

Hurricane Irene Status Update

...IRENE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

She's strengthening again. Pressure dropped a little. It's possible Tropical Storm Watches go out for us Thursday

Here's the 5 day path...Now forecasted to be "MAJOR" at landfal in North Carolina.

[Cambium]

Wow..Wow.. Latest GFS has it missing NC and gets stronger as it moves up. It's a deeper storm here then in NC. This would be crazy if this verifies.

10-15" of rain in 2 days for Eastern CT and 65mph wind gusts on this run

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Wow..Wow.. Latest GFS has it missing NC and gets stronger as it moves up. It's a deeper storm here then in NC. This would be crazy if this verifies.

10-15" of rain in 2 days for Eastern CT and 65mph wind gusts on this run

Wow..if that model holds that's a CT disaster...its interesting how the latter part of the period has almost a north track after an initial NNE track. Still dont buy the idea though.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Wow..if that model holds that's a CT disaster...its interesting how the latter part of the period has almost a north track after an intitial NNE track..

I'm trying to find a good graph to illustrate why its doing that.

High pressure over Texas. high Pressure over Bermuda. it has to squeeze in between. But then you have the trough to our NorthWest..that wants to pull Irene into it (hence the northward move)

Also remember...Major huricanes create a path of their own sometimes.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I'm trying to find a good graph to illustrate why its doing that.

High pressure over Texas. high Pressure over Bermuda. it has to squeeze in between. But then you have the trough to our NorthWest..that wants to pull Irene into it (hence the northward move)

Also remember...Major huricanes create a path of their own sometimes.

Gosh..This thing could bomb out now too..water is so damn warm...speed will also be a factor. Worried for someone now..this could be the big one if it does not make a right turn...