[Brian26]

000wtnt44 knhc 280257tcdat4hurricane irene discussion number 31nws national hurricane center miami fl al0920111100 pm edt sat aug 27 2011irene has changed little in appearance in satellite imagery...butthe radar depiction has degraded over the past few hours. An airforce reconnaissance aircraft investigating the hurricane thisevening has found 700 mb flight-level winds of 92 kt and sfmr windsof 66 kt in a small area more than 100 nmi east of the center.based on this information...the intensity of irene is beingmaintained at 70 kt for this advisory. It should be noted that thewind field graphics based on the four-quadrant radii will depict anunrealistically large area of hurricane-force winds.the initial motion estimate is now 020/14...and irene remains ontrack. Irene is expected to continue moving north-northeastwardahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough...and skirt themid-atlantic coast tonight and early sunday morning...and move overnew england by sunday afternoon. After irene becomes apost-tropical/extratropical low by 36 hours...the cyclone shouldgradually turn northeastward then east-northeastward as it movesinto the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast track isjust an extension of the previous advisory and remains in themiddle of the tightly packed nhc model guidance.irene will be moving over progressively cooler water until landfalloccurs on long island...which would normally result in significantweakening of most hurricanes. However...due to the unusually largewind field of irene...only slow weakening is expected throughoutthe forecast period...and it will only take modest convection tobring down stronger winds aloft to the surface as sustainedhurricane-force winds or gusts.more so than with most storms...the winds with irene increasesharply with height above the surface. As irene moves throughareas with high-rise structures...these buildings could experiencewinds significantly stronger than the surface winds. Winds at the30-story level will likely be 20 percent higher than at thesurface...and winds 80-100 stories up could be about 30 percenthigher than at the surface.forecast positions and max windsinit 28/0300z 37.3n 75.4w 70 kt 80 mph 12h 28/1200z 39.8n 74.1w 65 kt 75 mph 24h 29/0000z 44.0n 71.8w 55 kt 65 mph...inland 36h 29/1200z 48.5n 67.8w 45 kt 50 mph...post-trop/extratrop 48h 30/0000z 52.4n 62.8w 45 kt 50 mph...post-trop/extratrop 72h 31/0000z 57.7n 48.6w 40 kt 45 mph...post-trop/extratrop 96h 01/0000z 60.0n 33.5w 35 kt 40 mph...post-trop/extratrop120h 02/0000z 61.2n 24.5w 35 kt 40 mph...post-trop/extratrop$$forecaster stewart

[Stylo]

Went down once more. Wind seems to be approaching from the NW, so waves are rough - but nothing special yet. It's getting very wet out there, lots of downed small branches. Milford downtown duck ponds are looking high, but not flooding yet - but they will be by morning I presume. Last time out.

[greatblueheron]

Best not to go back....10 deaths already, many from falling tree branches.....Bridgeport/ 95 closed due to flooding...take care and stay safe.

Originally Posted by mkiv808

I just went down to the beach. The road is already partially flooded and nothing has happened yet. Scary.

The wind is picking up. Waves are growing. I'd say about 4-5' breaking waves right now. They're going to get huge.

Very small branches down (twigs basically), leaves. Most houses dark near water, presumably evacuated. VERY few boarded up.

I wonder for how long I can go down there safely? Probably not long.

[Stylo]

Yeah, I'm staying put. I had my dose of adventure for the storm.

[bobtn]

How much of 95 is closed-all of Bridgeport?

[Stylo]

Section by Exit 30

[bobtn]

Be careful everyone, and stay in if even within hundreds of miles of Irene. NC is still reporting 48 mph gusts, as Irene's center is far north of it. NC first hit that speed over 18 hours ago.

[Angelic_Avalon]

A lot of rain here but no wind seems to pick up

[Angelic_Avalon]

Winds starting to pick up... trees are moving back and forth (looks like 15 to 25 mph wind)@ 4:55 in New Britain

[Cambium]

Good luck guys... Winds gusting to 30mph..the leaves makes it so much worse...
My power should be going out soon.