[ctwhitechin]

Well, I'm definitely going blue fishing tomorrow down in SE CT those things are gonna bite their heads off ebb tide, storm coming, excellent. Inland CT should be ok looks like some wind and rain but coastal CT get ready for what CAN happen not to say it will.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Typically, in terms of average tracks, August tropical cyclones are the slowest to recurve - with the widest curve of all months. Right around mid August or so... the strength and position of the upper level westerly winds/jet reach their max low impact on the weather in the United States (and the East Coast). Additionally, the Bermuda High is now at its max strength, basically a massive dome of high pressure that forms a wall that most cyclones would much rather spin up the west side of, than try to nudge eastward though. The timing of Irene's recurvature depends on how quickly several small troughs of low pressure in the Northeastern US move to the east. If Irene slips by these (and it has at least a 60% chance of doing so by the way it looks now)…then by Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the Atlantic states from Virginia Beach, VA to Rhode Island…but it is too early to make a skillful forecast for those regions

My point - (and as always, no one really knows for sure), if you are expecting a quick, wide, eastward acceleration eastward off Cape Lookout/Outer Banks and out to sea, I think that’s wishful thinking. Right now, NHC has landfall around Wilmington, NC, but my guess is this is still too far west, I would say Morehead City to Hatteras would be where the eye crosses the USA coastline. I would lay strong odds Irene will ride up the Atlantic coastal plain from eastern North Carolina to the lowlands of Rhode Island/eastern Connecticut/maybe the islands. Maybe along 75 longitude...maybe along 70 longitude...maybe 75 miles offshore, etc, but I think this is not a cyclone that is going to quickly curve out to sea south of Hatteras.

On other note: Irene is maturing into a vigorous storm, with apparent waves in the western edge of the cirrus outflow. NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a large and major hurricane - 111 130 mph. However, the more I see how rapid the outflow is becoming symmetrical as the eye moves away from land, the 85 F + waters in the southern Bahamas, and the dead calm wind shear…I think we could see a 140- mph tropical cyclone in the coming days.

I’ll keep everyone posted as to the sea conditions down here along the CT/RI coastal area. Normally, the swells start in the coastal waters around here when a hurricane reaches around 27 – 30 north latitude.

Thanks..good post

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Csiko

This is gettin pretty scary.

Yes, it gets more and more eastward, but you have to consider how slow this storm is actually moving. That trough will probably be gone by the time it gets up here, and those two high pressure systems really do appear to be holding strong.

And now with the possibility of it hitting Myrtle Beach-ish as a category 4 Friday morning? Even if it crosses over the eastern portion of North Carolina and up through the Chesapeake bay/Delaware, it'll still be huge here, that's not much land to stop it and the water temperature is still high up the coast.

I guess anything could happen over the next 5 days. We are long overdue though and conditions still appear favorable for a category 2 here. Preparation is key, even if she goes out to sea.

Not gonna be a cat 2 up there...unless it misses NC completely then recurves straight north..odds are so so low. I see a strong tropical storm if there is not recurve out to sea which appears unlikely.... Its the flooding rains you guys have to worry about.

[Cambium]

East trend again with the 11am update. Now according to NHC the eye is almost in line with NYC.

Should be a Cat2 in Virginia according to this. NHC was flat out wrong 3 days ago saying it would go into Gulf when it was clear the motion was NW down before Puerto Rico. Even I was saying east coast of Florida NOT Gulf.

So I have no faith in their forecasts anymore but I'm pretty sure now its easier to forecast not being in the Open Atlantic.

[Nightmary]

Cambium wrote:East trend again with the 11am update. Now according to NHC the eye is almost in line with NYC.

Should be a Cat2 in Virginia according to this. NHC was flat out wrong 3 days ago saying it would go into Gulf when it was clear the motion was NW down before Puerto Rico. Even I was saying east coast of Florida NOT Gulf.

So I have no faith in their forecasts anymore but I'm pretty sure now its easier to forecast not being in the Open Atlantic.

___________________

I don't mean to ask stupid question but what does that mean then for us here in CT?

thanks

[ctwhitechin]

Too early to tell...where you are, where I am we would be on the stronger east side of the storm IF eye passes over New York city, still a big if this far out, my guess is lots of rain, maybe wind gusts to 60 knots but nothing that severe inland where we are, coastal CT wouldn't be so nice this one is interesting to watch just prepare get some non perishables, don't panic and feed into media induced fear.

Not really going over any land to slow it down if it shifts east again it will skirt the outer banks, then who knows it may just skirt us like Earl did last year but this one can get big real fast. All we are doing is taking educated guesses based on info, Cambium seems to becon the money though..

To sum it up for you, you are too far inland to be worried about storm surge. Flooding may be a concern if you are closecto the CT river and wind??? Ehhh will be windy but not severe. As an offshore fisherman, I trust windfinder.com, doesn't show too much wind for inland, but down around the coast, and long island, possible gusts to 70 forecasted.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Nightmary

Cambium wrote:East trend again with the 11am update. Now according to NHC the eye is almost in line with NYC.

Should be a Cat2 in Virginia according to this. NHC was flat out wrong 3 days ago saying it would go into Gulf when it was clear the motion was NW down before Puerto Rico. Even I was saying east coast of Florida NOT Gulf.

So I have no faith in their forecasts anymore but I'm pretty sure now its easier to forecast not being in the Open Atlantic.

___________________

I don't mean to ask stupid question but what does that mean then for us here in CT?

thanks

The weather channel's version of that cone shows it as possibly a "bare cat 1" (right around 75 mph) when/if the eye hits eastern LI/the CT coast.

[Cambium]

If anyone wants the technical look...here's a pic I put together of the Steering currents from 2am. Top pic is 2am. Middle is 8am. Bottom is 11am.

Looks like a path right up the coast!

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The weather channel's version of that cone shows it as possibly a "bare cat 1" (right around 75 mph) when/if the eye hits eastern LI/the CT coast.

I noticed this also, Wunderground too, looks like something makes them feel as now it won't be a cat 4 before initial landfall.

Wonder why the sudden change of heart, personally. If it continues moving as slow as it is through such warm water, what's there to stop it, the Bahamas?

[Cambium]

Geesus!!!! understand that the models are being fed up to minutes data on the storm and atmosphere conditions... So each model run reflects the new data.

The latest GFS run just now will have people in the area pulling their hair. its stronger then the other runs.

I will post the model updates tonight to show it. 966mb low. (stronger than the Post Christmas Blizzard)

its just one model...one run..so dont Panic yet...but I just dont see any good news with any runs...thats whats crazy about all this