[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Antonio84

Hey, I just researched who Jim Cantore is. Look and behold, I knew he existed for a long time but until now, I never put a name to his face. He was just one of those Weather Channel guys. LOL

An even bigger surprise for me is that he's a native Nutmegger. Who knew?!

I think he is native to VT not CT.

[willow wind]

In regard to extreme weather events.

There is a theory that that the melting polar ice cap is in part the cause of some out extreme weather in the north east /mid Atlantic over the past couple of years.

As the polar ice melts it adds and exposes more water surface to the sun. This heats up the area more than it used to and causes the North Atlantic high pressure system to build that is in place now.

Normally the jet stream flows strongly west to east and kicks these storms out to sea as they approach land . However, this time , the jet stream is wiggling ( not flowing smoothly ) and is blocked by that north Atlantic high.

That is both keeping Sandy from being able to turn and head out to sea and is also causing it to turn to land and then be picked up by the jet stream creating this mess coming down upon us. The theory goes that this scenario of really bad autumn weather is gong to become common place in the future..

I don't know if any of this is true or not but those interested can research the idea. Maybe some of our weather buffs have some input.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think he is native to VT not CT.

Born in Beacon Falls, CT but spent most of the later part of his childhood in White River Junction, VT.

[Cambium]

Latest NAM Tuesday at 11pm. Probably last time I check models for track. Now we just watch and maybe check for strength changes and temps in Ohio Valley. Blue on map is snow.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Latest NAM Tuesday at 11pm. Probably last time I check models for track. Now we just watch and maybe check for strength changes and temps in Ohio Valley. Blue on map is snow.

Appears that the strongest winds will stay south of New England given that projected track. What are your thoughts regarding temperature trends with respect to average for next month?

[Cambium]

Last one.. Tomorrow I secure loose objects, clean gutters again and pick up last minute foods and bags of Ice.

NAM 850mb winds. These are winds at the 5000' level. So basically anyone above 2000' will feel stronger winds of course. These are not gusts. Sustained Monday evening.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by willow wind

In regard to extreme weather events.

There is a theory that that the melting polar ice cap is in part the cause of some out extreme weather in the north east /mid Atlantic over the past couple of years.

As the polar ice melts it adds and exposes more water surface to the sun. This heats up the area more than it used to and causes the North Atlantic high pressure system to build that is in place now.

Normally the jet stream flows strongly west to east and kicks these storms out to sea as they approach land . However, this time , the jet stream is wiggling ( not flowing smoothly ) and is blocked by that north Atlantic high.

That is both keeping Sandy from being able to turn and head out to sea and is also causing it to turn to land and then be picked up by the jet stream creating this mess coming down upon us. The theory goes that this scenario of really bad autumn weather is gong to become common place in the future..

I don't know if any of this is true or not but those interested can research the idea. Maybe some of our weather buffs have some input.

Honestly …there really is zero truth to that.


While the polar ice cap melting would expose more high latitude surface water to solar radiation (sunlight), polar easterlies (not high pressure) still dominate that arctic much of the year. I think (?) what you’re talking about (North Atlantic high pressure) is the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone (aka the Bermuda High in summer). This high pressure area is a semi-permit feature of ALL subtropical oceans (worldwide) south of 40 latitude that expand and contract northward with the season. There are some studies that show that the subtropical highs might increase in size and seasonal intensity (and a few that show it might weaken as well), but none of these studies have proven anything concrete.

As far as the jet stream…there really is no “normal” for the main PFJ; this ribbon of high speed winds in the upper atmosphere that encircles the earth moves in great waves and troughs through the middle latitudes (30 to 50 N/S). Typically, when tropical cyclones are most active in our part of the world (summer/early fall), the jet stream is to our north anyway. I guess one could make the case that the jet is staying to our north (or just over us) more often - allowing tropical cyclones to get further north…but hurricanes/tropical storms have been hitting the north Atlantic states since they were first settled; The first known hurricane to CT was in 1687 (the Charter Oak Storm). So any changes in the position of the jet have not been so recent.

There really is no scientific evidence that the weather is doing anything it hasn’t done before. In terms of hurricanes…they are part of the regional climatology off all East coast climates (the USA , east Asia, eastern Australia…etc). Hurricanes have hit CT/East Coast before and they will again...

[Cambium]

I havent been impressed with the rain totals from this yet. I think NJ will get the most rain. Winds will be the Headlines.

I'll post the current position of Sandy but first from Upton: They are saying wind gusts to 30mph starting Sunday... Then calling for 75-80mph Monday night for locations close to the center and higher elevations

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH
INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR
WINDS...THEY INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 30S ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION
OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL
FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

[Cambium]

There Sandy down there at 968mb low and temps across the country. North and South Carolina have TS Warnings.

[Cambium]

If you guys are wondering what the distance is from a specific spot, I put this together using Philadelphia, PA. Here you can see how far 25, 50, 100, 200 & 300 miles extends from that location.