[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by jp03

Right ..I'd equate mid November snow with early April. Late November with late March .

Mid-November snow is far rarer. The ocean is still warm, whereas in early April it's still near-freezing.

[Cambium]

3-7am loop. Not to get too technical but ...


1. All that energy & moisture down south is coming our way...as rain.. (Folks in Kansas must be annoyed again)


2. You see that dig over New Mexico/Texas (orange lines pointing south)... that's called a Trough. It's where the coldest air dives down from Canada. Jet stream then flattens for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. For snow we need that trough (digging Jet stream) much East more!


3. That trough in the south is our player for the Friday storm! That's going to inject the cold air needed for snow.


4. I DO NOT believe it will be all snow. If anything it will be snow to rain or snow to ice to rain.


5. Orange lines is the Upper height pattern (flow at 28,000 feet) Notice the moisture is following that flow. It dictates the pattern at the surface. You can use this link and use the scroll bar to see how pattern plays out next 14 days.

[beer belly]

Something tells me it's going to be an interesting drive home on the back roads of Ridgefield Friday night......

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by beer belly

Something tells me it's going to be an interesting drive home on the back roads of Ridgefield Friday night......

Here is what Upton says. Should be intetesting for sure. Polar Airmass in place! Just need that center of storm off the coast enough but those East winds may bring in too much warmth if storm is too strong.

Weekend looks good again!

Still quite a bit of spread in track and intensification of this
system in the Thu/Fri time period, but potential is increasing for a
windswept moderate to heavy QPF event. With polar airmass initially
over New england on Thursday and high pressure slow to retreat,
potential for the first bout of wintry precip of the season exist as
well. Too early to diagnose p-types and amounts, but across the
interior there is potential for an accumulating wintry precip event
Thu/Thu Night before a transition to rain once cold air gradually
gets scoured out. Even along the coast, a brief onset of wintry
precip is possible Thu/Thu Eve before a transition to all rain as
e/se flow this time of year will be quick to warm low-levels.

For the next weekend, another strong high builds in from the
west with drier conditions returning along with colder than
normal temperatures.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

Mid-November snow is far rarer. The ocean is still warm, whereas in early April it's still near-freezing.

I see your point but history doesn't show more snow in April. You have to remember the average high April 1 is in the mid 50's. Very hard to get an air mass cold enough to support snow. Both are hard but if I had to make a choice I'd say its slightly more likely to snow November 15th than April lets say 5th...

[Cambium]

Loop last 4hrs. 8:30am-12:30pmEST. It's coming... (The Rain & Clouds). Miss Snow? Click here...

[Cambium]

Started a thread in the weather forum if you guys are interested in daily updates for all locations. I'll do my usual for CT here though


//www.city-data.com/forum/weath...l#post53625107

[Cambium]

Latest GFS, colder and storm stays off the coast but look at the CT coast. Rain. Interesting how it catches that since it's not Hi Resolution model.

This is the 1am Friday map and the precip shown is for prior 6hrs..

Could be a Potpourri event. Snow, to sleet, to rain, to snow. Ugh.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by cambium

started a thread in the weather forum if you guys are interested in daily updates for all locations. I'll do my usual for ct here though


//www.city-data.com/forum/weath...l#post53625107

ugh!!!

[Cambium]

New Euro trends colder!

Heres the data for Danbury. The precip is for prior 6hrs so note the 0.38" comes when surface and 850mb (5000') temps are below freezing. Some of the 0.47" too.

Almost 1/2" liquid to be snow?? = 2-4" snow