New York Times article on foreclosures in Atlanta (Dallas, Plano: for sale, real estate market)

[NY2DFW]

Excerpt from New York Times Article:

Increasing Rate of Foreclosures Upsets Atlanta
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/09/bu...9auctions.html

ATLANTA — Despite a vibrant local economy, Atlanta homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and losing their homes at one of the highest rates in the nation, offering a troubling glimpse of what experts fear may be in store for other parts of the country.



I know it's a different market, but I took solace in the fact that it wasn't happening in Dallas. In the past year that I've been tracking home prices in DFW, I haven't seen the prices drop all that much. And the banks aren't taking that much of a hit on the foreclosures either, otherwise they'd be more negotiable on the asking prices. It's good for the overall short term real estate market in DFW, but bad for long term real estate tax rates as the area continues to expand, and the need for services increases.

[momof2dfw]

Well, I just went to zillow (not my fave site though) and for my house it shows in the last 30 days a gain of over $20K. DANG! If that keeps up there might be a for sale sign in the front yard. I have noticed that in the last few weeks what few homes for sale in my neighborhood have sold.

[NY2DFW]

That's my point exactly. There are some neighborhoods that have a plague of foreclosures but I wouldn't live in those areas if you paid me. The good areas sell quickly and actually drive up the market values and in turn the taxes. You've made the same point many times. In the thread that you started about Dallas Liveability the article quoted some community leader saying "We've got to prepare to accomodate all the newcomers to the area with some affordable housing." When you hear that and combine it with escalating market values and real estate taxes, watch your wallet because the money has to come from somewhere. That's what happened here on Long Island thirty years ago and I don't have to tell you what happened.

[loves2read]

well-NYEDFW--you have to tell me--what did happen on Long Island 30 years ago
but you are right--there are some areas that sell very well and some areas where realtors flinch when they get a listing call...

what I find difficult to reconsile is that the county will raise the appraisal value for homes because of other factors besides THEIR marketability--like growth in retail properties in area or new homes in area that are selling well...but in some older neighborhoods houses haven't increased their sale-able price that much from original price 15-20 years ago--houses are not selling that fast--and their market is really soft--but TAD in my case says the houses are worth X amount more than the year before...
it is so difficult to fight something like that on appeal...

[NY2DFW]

Thirty years ago Long Island was a lot like the Metroplex is now. People from the city (NY) and the outer burroughs (brooklyn, queens, bronx) moved to the suburbs on LI to take advantage of nicer homes, better schools, better quality of life, more family oriented, no city tax. Sound familiar? At that time all of those things were true and you could buy a decent house for 75K. Today due to the influx of people, none of those things are true. Taxes on LI are among the highest in the country, if not the highest. Land is at a premium because there is no place left to build. Schools are overcrowded, and despite yearly budget increases the school boards still cannot make ends meet. There is rampant corruption. Quality of life has declined and the influx of immigrants combined with lack of affordable housing has created multi-dwelling units that are unsafe and illegal. Housing costs in the desireable neighborhoods are so high that young adults can no longer afford to live in the place in which they were born and raised. They are taking their expensive educations and are moving to North Carolina and elsewhere. Elderly people can no longer afford to pay the real estate taxes, because their taxes are now higher than their mortgages used to be. The overpopulation causes a strain on social services and infrastructure that cannot be sustained. The result has been roads and highways in a constant state of disrepair. The more construction that is needed the more traffic there is on the roads. The Long Island Expressway, and most of the other main arteries are parking lots all day long, not just during rush hour. Delays in commuting times and the need to work longer hours to make ends meet impacts on family time, and causes increased stress levels within the home. Increased demand for goods and services leads to price gouging at the gas pump, supermarkets and winter oil deliveries. NY is already one of the highest taxed states in the country (Income, Sales, Real Estate). The cost of living in the two counties of LI (Nassau, Suffolk) is the highest of all the other counties in New York State with the exception of Manhattan. In order to afford the cost of living and the high taxes in these two counties, Long Islanders need to make more money to keep up with the high cost of living, and they do. Then comes the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). New Yorkers and Californians making the median income for their areas are more and more ensared by this insidious tax that was once only imposed on the very rich. Today more and more middle class taxpayers are burdened with a tax which is being imposed now on middle class wage earners who barely eek out a living. If you're making 100K on LI, you're barely getting by.

These and other things (crime, unemployment, inflation, bureacratic resistance, etc.) have impacted the liveablity of LI over the last thirty years, and are directly or indirectly related to over-expansion, poor planning and corruption. I hope the same doesn't happen to DFW.

[socketz]

Dallas is so far from being built out that it wont happen in our lifetime, or our kids.

Two completely different places. As long as land is plentiful, there will always be building just a little further out. Work in the metroplex is also very spread out, so there is no single employment hub where people commute....there are many, and will probably be many more in the future.

[NY2DFW]

Disagree, but I hope you're right. It's not where the employment is that is the deciding factor. LI has as many jobs as the city. It's population and the cost of living that are the deciding factors in quality of life issues. See how you feel in ten years if your taxes double and your sitting in traffic on 75 to get to SBR.

[LastDallasNative]

Originally Posted by NY2DFW

Thirty years ago Long Island was a lot like the Metroplex is now. People from the city (NY) and the outer burroughs (brooklyn, queens, bronx) moved to the suburbs on LI to take advantage of nicer homes, better schools, better quality of life, more family oriented, no city tax. Sound familiar? At that time all of those things were true and you could buy a decent house for 75K. Today due to the influx of people, none of those things are true. Taxes on LI are among the highest in the country, if not the highest. Land is at a premium because there is no place left to build. Schools are overcrowded, and despite yearly budget increases the school boards still cannot make ends meet. There is rampant corruption. Quality of life has declined and the influx of immigrants combined with lack of affordable housing has created multi-dwelling units that are unsafe and illegal. Housing costs in the desireable neighborhoods are so high that young adults can no longer afford to live in the place in which they were born and raised. They are taking their expensive educations and are moving to North Carolina and elsewhere. Elderly people can no longer afford to pay the real estate taxes, because their taxes are now higher than their mortgages used to be. The overpopulation causes a strain on social services and infrastructure that cannot be sustained. The result has been roads and highways in a constant state of disrepair. The more construction that is needed the more traffic there is on the roads. The Long Island Expressway, and most of the other main arteries are parking lots all day long, not just during rush hour. Delays in commuting times and the need to work longer hours to make ends meet impacts on family time, and causes increased stress levels within the home. Increased demand for goods and services leads to price gouging at the gas pump, supermarkets and winter oil deliveries. NY is already one of the highest taxed states in the country (Income, Sales, Real Estate). The cost of living in the two counties of LI (Nassau, Suffolk) is the highest of all the other counties in New York State with the exception of Manhattan. In order to afford the cost of living and the high taxes in these two counties, Long Islanders need to make more money to keep up with the high cost of living, and they do. Then comes the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). New Yorkers and Californians making the median income for their areas are more and more ensared by this insidious tax that was once only imposed on the very rich. Today more and more middle class taxpayers are burdened with a tax which is being imposed now on middle class wage earners who barely eek out a living. If you're making 100K on LI, you're barely getting by.

These and other things (crime, unemployment, inflation, bureacratic resistance, etc.) have impacted the liveablity of LI over the last thirty years, and are directly or indirectly related to over-expansion, poor planning and corruption. I hope the same doesn't happen to DFW.

Yes, this is the same story we Dallas Natives have heard since the Sunbelt migration started back in 1973, when the Arab Oil Embargo occurred. The population of Dallas has zoomed in numbers since 1973 directly due to what you are describing. That is also why people complain about illegal immigration - we see the result. Why should we become more crowded here in Dallas? Why can't people move to the middle of Kansas instead of Dallas?.

[FarNorthDallas]

Originally Posted by NY2DFW

Land is at a premium because there is no place left to build.

This will never be an issue here. You can keep building out in every direction. Also, with the multiple employment centers in different directions, we all won't be on the same freeways headed to the city's core. One thing I wish would change is people's willingness to sacrifice their life hours with long commutes when they are perfectly good residential areas with great schools closer by. (Well, except for you folks working at the VA. Y'all need to commute.)

[socketz]

Originally Posted by FarNorthDallas

This will never be an issue here. You can keep building out in every direction. Also, with the multiple employment centers in different directions, we all won't be on the same freeways headed to the city's core. One thing I wish would change is people's willingness to sacrifice their life hours with long commutes when they are perfectly good residential areas with great schools closer by. (Well, except for you folks working at the VA. Y'all need to commute.)

This was the point I was making as well. The availability of land and diversified employment bases will continue to cause the prices to stabilize at a certain point in their appreciation cycle, even stagnate at some point like many areas in DFW have done in the past. In places like Socal and LI, there just isn't anywhere really left to build, so that causes prices to remain strong as long as there is population growth. Well, Socal has land further out from the coast, some places are even developed with homes abound.....but those areas lack airports and employment centers. I think TX is far superior to CA in this respect. New city....new employers.....look at Plano, McKinney, Frisco....all of these cities have aggressive plans to add new employers to the tax base...infrastructure - they act like cities on their own.

CA on the other hand tends to have employment hubs focused in certain areas, then people just drive to these common hubs.....if you want cheaper housing, drive further from the hub....and further (i.e. Riverside County). It's madness.