D/FW area to attract 2 million 2020-2030? (Houston, Dallas: apartments, condo)

[mastershake575]

Originally Posted by BigDGeek

Ugh...it'll be nothing but immigrants and Californians. No thanks to both.

A little harsh but I somewhat agree.

Problem is the highly desirable parts of central metroplex are already pretty much built out land wise so 2 million people are going either
1. Move to the outskirts which if they boom I won't care since there area's nobody travels to anyways (only thing we'll get it more traffic during rush hour)

and

2. There just gonna keep increasing the prices of what little affordable housing is left in central DFW


2 million in 10 years seems high anyways. Moment house prices get stagnant, intrest rates go up, and economy takes a little bit of a turn I doubt where going to see higher rates of people moving then the last 3-4 years. There's already been talks from transplants that "dallas isn't the deal it use to be compared to just a few years ago"

Dallas last time I checked was the 2nd most over-valued city in the entire united states, I doubt it can keep this train rolling for 10 more years

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by mastershake575

A little harsh but I somewhat agree.

Problem is the highly desirable parts of central metroplex are already pretty much built out land wise so 2 million people are going either
1. Move to the outskirts which if they boom I won't care since there area's nobody travels to anyways (only thing we'll get it more traffic during rush hour)

and

2. There just gonna keep increasing the prices of what little affordable housing is left in central DFW


2 million in 10 years seems high anyways. Moment house prices get stagnant, intrest rates go up, and economy takes a little bit of a turn I doubt where going to see higher rates of people moving then the last 3-4 years. There's already been talks from transplants that "dallas isn't the deal it use to be compared to just a few years ago"

Dallas last time I checked was the 2nd most over-valued city in the entire united states, I doubt it can keep this train rolling for 10 more years

I'm just saying what a lot of people will only say behind closed doors, if at all: the US has a destabilizing number of immigrants here and it is not good for us as Americans. We need to stem this flow.

[Mr. Clutch]

I can't see 200K/year average for 10 years. But I fully expect the area to add more than a million people by 2030 provided no major shocks.

[AlecZTexan]

Originally Posted by mastershake575

Dallas last time I checked was the 2nd most over-valued city in the entire united states, I doubt it can keep this train rolling for 10 more years

It's hard to understand why Dallas is so much overvalued - the average home price in DFW is essentially at the national average. I think the way to calculate the "overvalued" is to compare the sold price vs listing price, or something similar. That was only based on the current market but cannot predict the future growth. With the ongoing migration trend to the area, the housing prices in centered metro are projected to keep increasing in the next decade.

[NoClueWho]

Originally Posted by AlecZTexan

It's hard to understand why Dallas is so much overvalued - the average home price in DFW is essentially at the national average.

No, it's not hard to understand. The quality of most of the houses around DFW isn't even that good to demand the prices and sudden over inflated price hikes that they have demanded over last 4 or 5 years, since all these companies started relocating.

This is what homebuyers who are not rich and who seek to live in a decent, safe neighborhood with good schools and a seemingly reasonable commute mostly runs into in DFW these days: a lot of houses that are DECADES old and need thousands upon thousands worth of updates and repairs, or houses that got quickly thrown up in a matter of months and built with the cheapest materials, with both the former and latter commanding prices way higher that what the house itself should and would realistically be worth.

I know some super-homer snob is going to disagree and try get into a back and forth (which I'm not going to partake in) with "data" and a ton of links to houses that they probably wouldn't even live in themselves, but that's just how it is for most middle class folks in DFW these days. It's gotten to that point. So yes, it's DEFINITELY overvalued for the average middle class person.

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by Julio July

No, it's not hard to understand. The quality of most of the houses around DFW isn't even that good to demand the prices and sudden over inflated price hikes that they have demanded over last 4 or 5 years, since all these companies started relocating.

This is what homebuyers who are not rich and who seek to live in a decent, safe neighborhood with good schools and a seemingly reasonable commute mostly runs into in DFW these days: a lot of houses that are DECADES old and need thousands upon thousands worth of updates and repairs, or houses that got quickly thrown up in a matter of months and built with the cheapest materials, with both the former and latter commanding prices way higher that what the house itself should and would realistically be worth.

I know some super-homer snob is going to disagree and try get into a back and forth (which I'm not going to partake in) with "data" and a ton of links to houses that they probably wouldn't even live in themselves, but that's just how it is for most middle class folks in DFW these days. It's gotten to that point. So yes, it's DEFINITELY overvalued for the average middle class person.

My question to you.

If DFW is overvalued doesn't then we should expect to see similar type homes in similar type cities being more affordable? Places like Chicago, Boston, NYC, Miami, SF, LA, OC, MSP, San Diego, Seattle, Portland, DC, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta should have those same cheap quality new homes that need thousands of dollars of work for less, yet in all of those places homes are more expensive except Houston (Same) and Atlanta.

I agree linking to terrible homes no one wants to live in would be pointless, but a 3/2 Home in a decent to nice area in DFW would show a higher cost elsewhere.

[NoClueWho]

Originally Posted by Bolanders

My question to you.

If DFW is overvalued doesn't then we should expect to see similar type homes in similar type cities being more affordable? Places like Chicago, Boston, NYC, Miami, SF, LA, OC, MSP, San Diego, Seattle, Portland, DC, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta should have those same cheap quality new homes that need thousands of dollars of work for less, yet in all of those places homes are more expensive except Houston (Same) and Atlanta.

I agree linking to terrible homes no one wants to live in would be pointless, but a 3/2 Home in a decent to nice area in DFW would show a higher cost elsewhere.

I've already said I'm not doing the whole back and forth thing on the topic; it is what it is. But for those like you who want to argue that there are a handful of places where the cost of living is still higher (and many people are moving from those very places and are ridiculous price hikes in DFW), here's the thing: If DFW is getting to the point where middle class people have to STRUGGLE to live in DFW and don't have the quality of life that they should for the money that they make, then they might as well just move to one of those big, expensive, REAL cities/metros that you are mentioning!!! I mean, hell, if I'm going to struggle to pay my mortgage on a six figure income due to skyrocketing property taxes and artificially rising house values, do 2 and 3 hour commutes to and from work everyday, etc, then I might as well go do that in California where I can get some beaches and some sunshine for my struggle and hard earned $$$$$, in NYC where I can have 24/7 access to world class amenities and events, etc. THAT'S the point that DFW is racing toward, and no city in TEXAS is worth that---if one REALLY wants to make that comparison---hence why DFW has become OVERVALUED.

[TheOverdog]

if I'm going to struggle to pay my mortgage on a six figure income due to skyrocketing property taxes and artificially rising house values, do 2 and 3 hour commutes to and from work everyday, etc

You don't have to do any of that in DFW to afford a house, even in the nicer districts. Someone yesterday posted a whole bunch of houses in Richardson, one of the best districts in DFW and close to jobs, all remodeled under $300k. There are tons of houses in Arlington that are affordable to two minimum wage earners, $150-$200k.

[DPatel304]

Originally Posted by mastershake575

Problem is the highly desirable parts of central metroplex are already pretty much built out land wise so 2 million people are going either
1. Move to the outskirts which if they boom I won't care since there area's nobody travels to anyways (only thing we'll get it more traffic during rush hour)

and

2. There just gonna keep increasing the prices of what little affordable housing is left in central DFW

Or

3. Suburbs to the south/east start to become more desirable. The northern suburbs have become very congested and pricey, but there is a lot of opportunity to grow to the south and east of Downtown Dallas.

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by Julio July

I've already said I'm not doing the whole back and forth thing on the topic; it is what it is. But for those like you who want to argue that there are a handful of places where the cost of living is still higher (and many people are moving from those very places and are ridiculous price hikes in DFW), here's the thing: If DFW is getting to the point where middle class people have to STRUGGLE to live in DFW and don't have the quality of life that they should for the money that they make, then they might as well just move to one of those big, expensive, REAL cities/metros that you are mentioning!!! I mean, hell, if I'm going to struggle to pay my mortgage on a six figure income due to skyrocketing property taxes and artificially rising house values, do 2 and 3 hour commutes to and from work everyday, etc, then I might as well go do that in California where I can get some beaches and some sunshine for my struggle and hard earned $$$$$, in NYC where I can have 24/7 access to world class amenities and events, etc. THAT'S the point that DFW is racing toward, and no city in TEXAS is worth that---if one REALLY wants to make that comparison---hence why DFW has become OVERVALUED.

I wasn't looking for a back and forth but your examples are ludicrous because those 2 cities you mentioned would run you about $6000/month instead of $2000 a month. If $2000 (or $3000 or whatever you want to use) is overvalued then 2x-4x is absolutely over valued.

Middle class can afford $2000/month. They cannot afford $6000 a month.

The 2 examples above this post are spot on