Meanwhile, Your Property Taxes Will Still Go Up....

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by djslakor

Thank you, again, for the mansplanation of 101 macroeconomics. Who knew supply and demand functions weren't binary?

Why do you insist on debating like a toddler?

It is not mansplaining to disagree with you anymore than it is mansplaining for you to tell me that both supply and demand will shift to the left.

Seriously, why are you unnecessarily snarky 100% of the time?

You are the one who said values would be unaffected because both curves would shift to the left. In order for that to be true, they both need to have comparable shifts. The simple fact that they are both moving to the left does not mean values won't be affected.

Originally Posted by djslakor

The aforementioned 15% (made up predominately of low wage service and retail workers) are definitely the key factor in the demand function, you nailed it.

Again, what's with the snark? Why do you insist on having a "conversation" where you treat the other party like they are an idiot?

And those factors don't need to be the key factors. They just need to be significant factors.

Originally Posted by djslakor

The supply side isn't going to de-list for the hell of it (there's no advantage in doing so since the listing remains in MLS history). The majority will wait out the next month or two because they can, just as would-be sellers who hadn't listed yet, not immediately lower their price and accept less. It's not like this is a sub-second spot market.

The RE market is basically on pause (for lack of a better term) ... hardly anyone is buying or (actually) selling right now.

This thread is about property values for 2020, not a pedantic interpretation of what the value of your home is if you absolutely had to sell it right now, today.

This thread is about property value right now. Not appraised values for 2020.

If you think the average home in DFW is worth as much right now as it was three months ago, you're crazy.

And dismissing 15% unemployment because it is mostly low wage service works misses the fact that they support many industries outside of the industries in which they work. Massively contracting GDP and historically high unemployment will inevitably have a real downward effect on real estate prices. The fear of those things happening likely already has.

[Katana49]

I'll say this, I imagine most people looking to buy a home right now are in for a hard time of it. We had just started the process of refinancing when all of this hit. I gave all my info over a month ago, financials, employment status, etc. My credit score is in the 800s.



Well, the underwriters are freaking out on making any loans right now because so many people have suddenly lost their jobs. They verified my employment like 3 times during this process, even after I showed them my commission/salary had been wired into my bank account 1 week before, they still demanded to speak to the HR department to verify my employment. I was about ready to just call it quits because they pissed me off asking for so much info.


I have to think there will be a drop in closings not only because of job losses but also because banks are being cautious in the extreme to lend to anyone. This was literally a more difficult closing now than it was back in 2010, which at that time the real estate market had hit bottom.

[ElmoPuffinburger]

Just a topical anecdote - my buddy listed yesterday (Prosper, upper $500K); had three showings, and two full price offers. Now, I think that's NOT going to be norm moving forward, it was just interesting (and timely) to get that text while I was reading this thread.

Also, as someone else pointed out, the assessed tax value is determined as a snapshot on 1/1 of that year. This was reinforced to me when I did the informal protest this year (Collin Co) and sat across the desk from the appraiser. She said if prices sank in the months after 1/1, we wouldn't see that reflected til the next year's assessment.

[calgirlinnc]

Originally Posted by Katana49

I'll say this, I imagine most people looking to buy a home right now are in for a hard time of it. We had just started the process of refinancing when all of this hit. I gave all my info over a month ago, financials, employment status, etc. My credit score is in the 800s.



Well, the underwriters are freaking out on making any loans right now because so many people have suddenly lost their jobs. They verified my employment like 3 times during this process, even after I showed them my commission/salary had been wired into my bank account 1 week before, they still demanded to speak to the HR department to verify my employment. I was about ready to just call it quits because they pissed me off asking for so much info.


I have to think there will be a drop in closings not only because of job losses but also because banks are being cautious in the extreme to lend to anyone. This was literally a more difficult closing now than it was back in 2010, which at that time the real estate market had hit bottom.

That's ridiculous for a refi.

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Why do you insist on debating like a toddler?

It is not mansplaining to disagree with you anymore than it is mansplaining for you to tell me that both supply and demand will shift to the left.

Seriously, why are you unnecessarily snarky 100% of the time?

You are the one who said values would be unaffected because both curves would shift to the left. In order for that to be true, they both need to have comparable shifts. The simple fact that they are both moving to the left does not mean values won't be affected.



Again, what's with the snark? Why do you insist on having a "conversation" where you treat the other party like they are an idiot?

And those factors don't need to be the key factors. They just need to be significant factors.



This thread is about property value right now. Not appraised values for 2020.

If you think the average home in DFW is worth as much right now as it was three months ago, you're crazy.

And dismissing 15% unemployment because it is mostly low wage service works misses the fact that they support many industries outside of the industries in which they work. Massively contracting GDP and historically high unemployment will inevitably have a real downward effect on real estate prices. The fear of those things happening likely already has.

Now he's back to name calling and laughable projection.

[mastershake575]

Originally Posted by djslakor

Now he's back to name calling and laughable projection.

He's actually correct on most of his points and you are being snarky for no reason (not seeing any issues with what he posted)

[calgirlinnc]

Originally Posted by ElmoPuffinburger

Just a topical anecdote - my buddy listed yesterday (Prosper, upper $500K); had three showings, and two full price offers. Now, I think that's NOT going to be norm moving forward, it was just interesting (and timely) to get that text while I was reading this thread.

That's encouraging.

. Also, as someone else pointed out, the assessed tax value is determined as a snapshot on 1/1 of that year. This was reinforced to me when I did the informal protest this year (Collin Co) and sat across the desk from the appraiser. She said if prices sank in the months after 1/1, we wouldn't see that reflected til the next year's assessment.

That's really shortsighted of them. Adding to someone's mortgage right now with an additional tax burden could encourage foreclosures, which would ultimately lead to devaluation and lower tax revenue.

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by mastershake575

He's actually correct on most of his points and you are being snarky for no reason (not seeing any issues with what he posted)

I disagree with you. Though I should say I don't personally mind at all if you agree with the points he's made regarding the thread topic, I just disagree, and I said why. I don't bet on closing out 2020 with a precipitous drop off in home value. I don't expect to see much gain, either. I would agree with spot market valuation as a hypothetical (which I already said).

I suppose we could set a reminder and see what happens in Dec 2020.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by djslakor

Now he's back to name calling and laughable projection.

What name did I call you? I said you were arguing like a toddler, but that's true (and I didn't call you a toddler) -- you are consistently resorting to insulting sarcasm, head slapping, and you said it was "mansplaining" for me to make a point about supply and demand....even though you had just made a point about supply and demand. And I had no clue what your gender was.

What laughable projection did I make? I said 15% unemployment and 40% GDP contraction. We're likely already nearing 18% unemployment. There have been 22 million job loses in the last month. Goldman is calling for 34% GDP contraction, and Jason Bullard, the head of the St. Louis fed, has predicted 50%. How exactly are my numbers laughable? Do you know something all of these professional economists don't? Or is it laughable that these numbers will have a downward effect on real estate prices?

I'm really confused about the way you interpret my posts. And to be clear, I'm not predicting that we will finish 2020 with lower real estate prices. I think there's a good chance we will, but I've not said anything to that effect.

[Skipito]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

There's also no data to support the idea that values haven't gone down. There's no GDP data to show that we are in a recession yet, but that doesn't mean it's not true.

But again, would you honestly not choose to try to sell a house a few months ago if you had the choice?

Of course, it would have been easier to show. My point was we don't have data to back up anything yet at this point, so there's nothing to do about current property taxes. Next year? Yes, we''ll have that data.

Anecdotally, every listing in my neighborhood has gone quickly, and I currently have friends living with me that sold about 3 weeks quicker than they anticipated (listed the day the shelter in place was issued) so they threw stuff in storage and are crashing in my guest room.

We'll have a better read on it in a few months.

The rest of your projections are just wordy guesses at this point - neither right nor wrong... just guesses.