The DFW housing market is NOT sustainable (Houston, Dallas: price, dangerous)

[spacecitytx]

Originally Posted by DFW_FTW

This is a Dallas thread in a Dallas sub-forum.

You might be lost….

Not lost at all.

Where's the rule that says all users may only post or comment in threads concerning their own cities?

Besides...I'm in Dallas so often that I MIGHT AS WELL live there.

[DFW_FTW]

Originally Posted by spacecitytx

Not lost at all.

Where's the rule that says all users may only post or comment in threads concerning their own cities?

Besides...I'm in Dallas so often that I MIGHT AS WELL live there.

Then why are you comparing your situation in BFE to Dallas and then whining about it???

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

To add to this, my company is currently having its best year ever YTD by about 15-20%, and we're what I would consider a semi-discretionary product. That's not necessarily an ironclad look at things as there are a lot of industry-specific factors going on, but I've seen no indication that consumers are pulling back.

The only scenario I see in which we truly see anything that could be called a housing crash come to fruition would be a much more significant economic downturn than anyone could reasonably expect right now and/or rates having to go much higher than one could expect. I think we saw over the last couple months that any pullback in rates will be met with demand.

Tagged. Will report back after reading over something this weekend.

[spacecitytx]

Originally Posted by DFW_FTW

Then why are you comparing your situation in BFE to Dallas and then whining about it???

Dude, YOU were the one comparing everyone's situation as if it were one size fits all.

YOU are the one running off at the mouth about how people are just plain stupid for buying AFTER the pandemic, as if everyone just had the money or credit score or whatever they needed to get right before buying sitting there, and they just weren't making the move. You have a LOT of baseless assumptions which you like to spout as "hardcore truth", when it's really just you being an azzhole. I simply spoke of my situation in an effort to show that NONE OF WHAT YOU SPOUTED applies to everyone...only some people in DFW.

[DFW_FTW]

Originally Posted by spacecitytx

Dude, YOU were the one comparing everyone's situation as if it were one size fits all.

YOU are the one running off at the mouth about how people are just plain stupid for buying AFTER the pandemic, as if everyone just had the money or credit score or whatever they needed to get right before buying sitting there, and they just weren't making the move. You have a LOT of baseless assumptions which you like to spout as "hardcore truth", when it's really just you being an azzhole. I simply spoke of my situation in an effort to show that NONE OF WHAT YOU SPOUTED applies to everyone...only some people in DFW.

Reading comprehension is not your friend.

I have no problem with people buying or selling at high or low prices.

I have a problem with people giving advice that cost you time and money.

[spacecitytx]

Originally Posted by DFW_FTW

Reading comprehension is not your friend.

I have no problem with people buying or selling at high or low prices.

I have a problem with people giving advice that cost you time and money.

I read it perfectly clear. You can't make that claim AFTER you just called everyone who might have followed such advice a bunch of dumbasses.

You didn't just disrespect the advice-giver...you disrespected half of DFW.

[cosmonetropic]

Originally Posted by DFW_FTW

I’m not here to stroke your ego and sugarcoat reality.

Better to get hurt by the truth than get comforted by a lie.

Listening to the original poster advice resulted in people not buying a house and now having to pay higher in monthly payments if they decided to enter the market in March 2023 versus Feb 2022.

Rates are not coming down anytime soon, inflation is stubborn and sticky.

Relationships will be tested due to current market conditions and especially for someone who had the opportunity to buy but got greedy trying to time 2022 rates with 2019 prices.

DFW is so in demand that people are moving closer and closer to Oklahoma than Downtown Dallas just to live in the vicinity.

Imagine how stupid you have to be if you had the income, assets and credit to buy a house in 2021 or 2022 but decided not to because the prices weren’t as good as 2019 when rates were higher.

The original poster did exactly that and then jumped on to spread FUD with a side of hopium so others too wouldn’t buy a house.

Now all the folks are priced out and people from out of the state with tons of home equity, higher income jobs and assets are moving to scoop up cheap assets.

Housing in DFW is sustainable and listening to the original poster cost you time, money and possibly your relationship.

I've read your posts and generally agree with most of your statistics and sentiments about the market. What is your opinion on the North Dallas market and which neighborhoods would have the best appreciation potential in the coming decade? Not looking for more than 2000-2200 sq ft and budget $450K- $600K.

[Mr. Clutch]

Originally Posted by spacecitytx

If you're gonna say that, then that applies to ANYONE who pays a mortgage, assuming that they're not millionaires...not just those who pay HIGH mortgages. If one were to suddenly develop a debilitating illness to where he/she can't work anymore, that'll probably get them foreclosed on whether they pay $4400 OR $1500 a month. While one is significantly smaller than the other, none of that matters if they have no major savings or anyone to lean on to help them financially.

The same would go for a person who rents...if said person were paralyzed in a car accident today, and the disability checks aren't enough to cover rent...well, what is that person to do?

While what you're saying is true, that foreclosure is going to happen WAY sooner for a household that's overextended than for one that's not. You have to have over $50K per year in free cash to service a debt like that. A quarter of Americans can't even service a $1K emergency expense without going into debt to do so. Personal savings rates are down and debt is up. The job market is slowly weakening. Families that are overextended like that are playing with fire, but if someone wants to spend
more than half their net income on housing, they are free to do so. Would not be me though - I like to do other things with my money other than spend it all on my house lol.

Long term, a lot of the growth that DFW and Texas as a whole is seeing is due to people from more expensive areas cashing out and moving here. Those people tend to be older and far more wealthy than the population as a whole and will be less effected by future job losses than most. Their concentration in places like Plano and Frisco may help those markets perhaps fare better than the rest of the region in a downturn, but who knows. Places that run up the most tend to get hit the hardest in downturns. There is nothing magical about DFW, North Texas, or Texas as a whole that will stop price decreases in an employment downturn. The only reason Texas (and Houston moreso than DFW) did comparatively well during the last recession was because job losses were generally less than the rest of the country. There's no guarantee that this will be the case this go around. Keep in mind that Texas metros have the biggest residential construction pipelines in the country. Another wild card is this idea of banning Chinese nationals from landownership. I doubt it will ever pass but if it does, it will slow down the resale market.

The idea that property only increases in value is a mistake many have made time and time again. Anecdotally, people in my circle are doing well too, but our anecdotes only go so far. Like it or not, people on this board are far more affluent than the average American and (like most people) probably surround themselves with likeminded and similarly successful individuals. That is NOT indicative of the majority of America though. At the end of the day, whenever the inevitable recession happens real estate prices will fall as they always do, and places like Frisco and Plano might do better than the rest of DFW, but they won't be immune.

[DFW_FTW]

Originally Posted by cosmonetropic

I've read your posts and generally agree with most of your statistics and sentiments about the market. What is your opinion on the North Dallas market and which neighborhoods would have the best appreciation potential in the coming decade? Not looking for more than 2000-2200 sq ft and budget $450K- $600K.

Go look for Cranes and buy in that area.

Big money does their research before moving in.

You will see tons of cranes around Frisco / Plano.

Buy in the area where you have lots of jobs, companies moving in and great schools ranked top 5%-10%/ retails shops.

That is the area you want to buy In.

Buy close to the toll roads or major highways and airports.

All those items will help to add value.

[DFW_FTW]

Originally Posted by spacecitytx

I read it perfectly clear. You can't make that claim AFTER you just called everyone who might have followed such advice a bunch of dumbasses.

You didn't just disrespect the advice-giver...you disrespected half of DFW.

I’ll call it how it is.

If you followed the original posters advice of Dallas not being sustainable and didn’t buy because you were expecting a crash and lower monthly payments, you’re a dumbass.

Now you get to pay the price of being a dumbass.