Million Dollar Question - Buy or Wait? 2022 Edition (Dallas, Plano: condos, townhouses)

[move4ward]

National new home cancellations increased quite a bit in the 2nd quarter. Builders are offering more incentives, instead of cutting prices in current developments.

New home cancellations based on monthly survey. Note: July cancellation rate is higher than April 2020 COVID peak.
https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/s...05478243504131

New home cancellations based on quarterly financial reports to the SEC for publicly traded homebuilders.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/...ions-increased

[Tranzplant]

Currently it feels like we are in a stalemate where sellers are not willing to lower their prices from the highs and buyers unwilling to pay the higher price tag. Anecdotal information from my realtor friends say very few transactions are happening at the moment. It definitely feels like the crest before the big drop.

[move4ward]

Lumber prices were out of control. Prices are coming down for lumber. $3.48 for 2x4x8. Building material deflation will be good for builders.

Home Depot: https://www.homedepot.com/p/2-in-x-4...1020/305625813

[hereticiam]

Originally Posted by Tranzplant

Currently it feels like we are in a stalemate where sellers are not willing to lower their prices from the highs and buyers unwilling to pay the higher price tag. Anecdotal information from my realtor friends say very few transactions are happening at the moment. It definitely feels like the crest before the big drop.

Agree with this. In the past housing downturns, sellers have taken a long time to come to accept reality. So it took a while for the asking price for homes to go down. In the Dallas area, most of the schools year has started or is about to start. So families may be less willing to move in the middle of the school year. This will be a further drag on the housing market.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by hereticiam

Agree with this. In the past housing downturns, sellers have taken a long time to come to accept reality. So it took a while for the asking price for homes to go down. In the Dallas area, most of the schools year has started or is about to start. So families may be less willing to move in the middle of the school year. This will be a further drag on the housing market.

I know several sellers who have way overpriced just to see if they can get some fool coming into the state to buy their home. They don't need to sell but will if they can get the $$.

You'll see these people terminate or not renew their listings over the next 60 days.

There is now a 2 month inventory from a 2-3 week inventory in the 4 counties.

What I'm going to love to see is these professional Flippers and IBuyers like OpenDoor get burned with flat / sinking prices and a much longer time to sell. It would not hurt to drive many of them out of the market.

[fwsavemoney]

Originally Posted by Rakin

I know several sellers who have way overpriced just to see if they can get some fool coming into the state to buy their home. They don't need to sell but will if they can get the $$.

You'll see these people terminate or not renew their listings over the next 60 days.

There is now a 2 month inventory from a 2-3 week inventory in the 4 counties.

What I'm going to love to see is these professional Flippers and IBuyers like OpenDoor get burned with flat / sinking prices and a much longer time to sell. It would not hurt to drive many of them out of the market.

Couldn't agree more

[hereticiam]

Originally Posted by Tranzplant

Currently it feels like we are in a stalemate where sellers are not willing to lower their prices from the highs and buyers unwilling to pay the higher price tag. Anecdotal information from my realtor friends say very few transactions are happening at the moment. It definitely feels like the crest before the big drop.

Originally Posted by Rakin

I know several sellers who have way overpriced just to see if they can get some fool coming into the state to buy their home. They don't need to sell but will if they can get the $$.

You'll see these people terminate or not renew their listings over the next 60 days.

There is now a 2 month inventory from a 2-3 week inventory in the 4 counties.

What I'm going to love to see is these professional Flippers and IBuyers like OpenDoor get burned with flat / sinking prices and a much longer time to sell. It would not hurt to drive many of them out of the market.

It will be good to see.

I saw in home in Frisco that was purchased in April/May 2022 for $1 Million.
A few months later they are trying to sell the same home for $1.2 million. With current labor/supply chain constraints it is unlikely they made improvements in the home to justify a 20% price increase in 2 months.

[Utah'n]

Originally Posted by Rakin

I know several sellers who have way overpriced just to see if they can get some fool coming into the state to buy their home. They don't need to sell but will if they can get the $$.

You'll see these people terminate or not renew their listings over the next 60 days.

There is now a 2 month inventory from a 2-3 week inventory in the 4 counties.

What I'm going to love to see is these professional Flippers and IBuyers like OpenDoor get burned with flat / sinking prices and a much longer time to sell. It would not hurt to drive many of them out of the market.

From your experience - How are the new build/spec home sales faring at this time compared to just a few months ago? Is it a normal trend for spec homes due to complete in a couple months still sitting there in the DFW area?

I have been eyeing a "spec" home that is due for completion in a couple months. I don't see any motivation from the builder to come down on the pricing yet.

Thank you!

[Dashakhs]

Originally Posted by Rakin

I know several sellers who have way overpriced just to see if they can get some fool coming into the state to buy their home. They don't need to sell but will if they can get the $$.

You'll see these people terminate or not renew their listings over the next 60 days.

There is now a 2 month inventory from a 2-3 week inventory in the 4 counties.

What I'm going to love to see is these professional Flippers and IBuyers like OpenDoor get burned with flat / sinking prices and a much longer time to sell. It would not hurt to drive many of them out of the market.

Would you say all those Opendoor whatever type houses are all disaster avoid-at-all-costs homes or are they sitting simply because they are way overpriced?

So much of the "sitting inventory" are those and similar.

[Kenro911]

Can someone walk me through the numbers on the person who bought 8084 Ingram Drive Plano, Texas 75024-7810.

750K for essentially a town home surrounded by apartments, not even zoned for some amazing school either. Whoever the seller is, they should wine and dine their Sotheby's realtor. Probably got someone international or I am missing something entirely. 750K for a 2300sqft town home in Plano? Literally surrounded by apartments and a courthouse.