If Celina is 'next Frisco' (Houston, Dallas: transplants, home, employment)

[callmebutter]

I'm with Leonard.

Prosper will max out at 70-80k people and doesn't have the land or desire to do much more than residential and retail.

Celina with its ETJ is massive but i still don't see corporate HQ's and other towers that plano and frisco can offer and anything other than neighborhood retail and the downtown area will be at least 10+ years away. the outer loop will help alleviate 380 east and west but the commutes will be awful.

Gunter land started spiking 4-5 years ago and is ridiculously priced now for absolutely no amenities or proximity to anything. Gunter is decades away from any real business.

I am more curious to see how the transition from NTTA to Grayson county tollway authority goes. DNT phase 4a won't start until at least 2024 an will take years to complete. phase 4b isn't even slated for planning and design until 2024. I'd say its at least 2030 until its at grayson county border.

[albert648]

Celina will need another 10 years before it's anywhere near Frisco and even then it will need a few F500s (e.g. a Toyota) to set up shop there plus another million of two in metro population.

Personally I'm looking to stay inside of Sam Rayburn. If I'm going anywhere outside of SRT it would be somewhere like Flower Mound though I'll have to watch for the DFW flight paths.

[yrs2009]

Will never be Frisco, its too far from DFW airport, Frisco is the new Plano, large corporate development will end at that point. Too much land still developable and way more accessible. People are not following the traditional patterns of emptying older suburbs in favor of new further away ones as fast as before, Richardson, Plano, Carrolton, Las Colinas, Far North Dallas, Lakehighlands, Grapevine are getting a large influx of younger families that has slowed the crawl north, its still there but much slower than before, Celina and Anna will have to wait until Mckinney and Frisco are as dense and filled up as Plano is to really get to that point IMO.

[bgNCATL]

Originally Posted by yrs2009

Will never be Frisco, its too far from DFW airport, Frisco is the new Plano, large corporate development will end at that point. Too much land still developable and way more accessible. People are not following the traditional patterns of emptying older suburbs in favor of new further away ones as fast as before, Richardson, Plano, Carrolton, Las Colinas, Far North Dallas, Lakehighlands, Grapevine are getting a large influx of younger families that has slowed the crawl north, its still there but much slower than before, Celina and Anna will have to wait until Mckinney and Frisco are as dense and filled up as Plano is to really get to that point IMO.

My thoughts exactly!

[LocalPlanner]

It will really depend upon the demographics of the folks that populate the NW corner of Collin County (and to some extent the Gunter / Tioga area in Grayson County). If it turns out to be highly-educated, Anglo / Asian white-collar workers, then you could see pretty substantial office employer growth up toward Celina, even if Frisco still has developable land. This would only happen once the tollway extension to / through Celina is finished, though.

Yes it's far from DFW Airport, but business travel isn't as important for many companies as it used to be now that they understand virtual meeting cost savings.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by yrs2009

Will never be Frisco, its too far from DFW airport, Frisco is the new Plano, large corporate development will end at that point. Too much land still developable and way more accessible. People are not following the traditional patterns of emptying older suburbs in favor of new further away ones as fast as before, Richardson, Plano, Carrolton, Las Colinas, Far North Dallas, Lakehighlands, Grapevine are getting a large influx of younger families that has slowed the crawl north, its still there but much slower than before, Celina and Anna will have to wait until Mckinney and Frisco are as dense and filled up as Plano is to really get to that point IMO.

No, Plano will always remain the center of the corporate and office development. It hasn't really pushed into Frisco, and it is not going to in the future. On top of that, Frisco does not resemble Plano in any point of its past 30 years. On top of that, yes, people are following the pattern of moving towards newer areas just by virtue of the demand and price point for newer homes vs older ones.

No city will be a "next" just because it is being developed in a different economy with different development patterns.

One thing too many people overlook is that Frisco would never amounted to anything had it not been for Stonebriar Mall coming in long before the city was built out. McKinney rather than Plano would have remained a central location had the corporations not set up in Plano in the early 1980s long, long before it was built out. Celina may be too late already.

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

It will really depend upon the demographics of the folks that populate the NW corner of Collin County (and to some extent the Gunter / Tioga area in Grayson County). If it turns out to be highly-educated, Anglo / Asian white-collar workers, then you could see pretty substantial office employer growth up toward Celina, even if Frisco still has developable land. This would only happen once the tollway extension to / through Celina is finished, though.

Yes it's far from DFW Airport, but business travel isn't as important for many companies as it used to be now that they understand virtual meeting cost savings.

It's quite obvious that any new development in Celina is attracting a disproportionate share of people from India. Homes there are newer and thus much more expensive than they are to the east, and incomes are much higher, slightly below Frisco and well above Mckinney, Plano, and Allen.

People are talking about this tollway like it's a big deal. It's mostly planned or existing residential along that path in Celina and not even within the city's official boundaries. The future plans north seem to keep it outside of any city limits. All the commercial development there is following Preston Road, and that pattern will probably continue. The excitement over the tollway seems built on the unrealistic assumption it will see the same patterns of development as it did in cities south of 380. You can look at Prosper and see there too the commercial development is following Preston Road and 380.

For those who have not seen the current plans for it, the impact of the Outer Loop may be drastically overlooked. It will be a 10-lane roller coaster across the entire county, and it's already finalized. It should be of as great or greater impact than the tollway.

[Radraiderz2004]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

No, Plano will always remain the center of the corporate and office development. It hasn't really pushed into Frisco, and it is not going to in the future. On top of that, Frisco does not resemble Plano in any point of its past 30 years. On top of that, yes, people are following the pattern of moving towards newer areas just by virtue of the demand and price point for newer homes vs older ones.

No city will be a "next" just because it is being developed in a different economy with different development patterns.

One thing too many people overlook is that Frisco would never amounted to anything had it not been for Stonebriar Mall coming in long before the city was built out. McKinney rather than Plano would have remained a central location had the corporations not set up in Plano in the early 1980s long, long before it was built out. Celina may be too late already.



It's quite obvious that any new development in Celina is attracting a disproportionate share of people from India. Homes there are newer and thus much more expensive than they are to the east, and incomes are much higher, slightly below Frisco and well above Mckinney, Plano, and Allen.

People are talking about this tollway like it's a big deal. It's mostly planned or existing residential along that path in Celina and not even within the city's official boundaries. The future plans north seem to keep it outside of any city limits. All the commercial development there is following Preston Road, and that pattern will probably continue. The excitement over the tollway seems built on the unrealistic assumption it will see the same patterns of development as it did in cities south of 380. You can look at Prosper and see there too the commercial development is following Preston Road and 380.

For those who have not seen the current plans for it, the impact of the Outer Loop may be drastically overlooked. It will be a 10-lane roller coaster across the entire county, and it's already finalized. It should be of as great or greater impact than the tollway.

The Indian population is staying south of 380 especially around the newer Frisco High Schools and Rock Hill High. The new subdivisions in Celina going up are SUPER duper white. Not much diversity to be found.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by Radraiderz2004

The Indian population is staying south of 380 especially around the newer Frisco High Schools and Rock Hill High. The new subdivisions in Celina going up are SUPER duper white. Not much diversity to be found.

That may have been true up until about a year or two ago. Have you visited the sales offices there in the past couple years? I see it with my own two eyes time and time again. It's even worse than Frisco.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

No, Plano will always remain the center of the corporate and office development. It hasn't really pushed into Frisco, and it is not going to in the future. On top of that, Frisco does not resemble Plano in any point of its past 30 years. On top of that, yes, people are following the pattern of moving towards newer areas just by virtue of the demand and price point for newer homes vs older ones.

No city will be a "next" just because it is being developed in a different economy with different development patterns.

One thing too many people overlook is that Frisco would never amounted to anything had it not been for Stonebriar Mall coming in long before the city was built out. McKinney rather than Plano would have remained a central location had the corporations not set up in Plano in the early 1980s long, long before it was built out. Celina may be too late already.



It's quite obvious that any new development in Celina is attracting a disproportionate share of people from India. Homes there are newer and thus much more expensive than they are to the east, and incomes are much higher, slightly below Frisco and well above Mckinney, Plano, and Allen.

People are talking about this tollway like it's a big deal. It's mostly planned or existing residential along that path in Celina and not even within the city's official boundaries. The future plans north seem to keep it outside of any city limits. All the commercial development there is following Preston Road, and that pattern will probably continue. The excitement over the tollway seems built on the unrealistic assumption it will see the same patterns of development as it did in cities south of 380. You can look at Prosper and see there too the commercial development is following Preston Road and 380.

For those who have not seen the current plans for it, the impact of the Outer Loop may be drastically overlooked. It will be a 10-lane roller coaster across the entire county, and it's already finalized. It should be of as great or greater impact than the tollway.

Is the new loop going to be 170?

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by brock2010

Is the new loop going to be 170?

I don't think there's any number on it.

You can view the schematics and details from the county here. Segment 3 crosses Celina and is currently just a two lane road. Little do people know that will soon be multiplied five fold.

https://www.collincountytx.gov/Trans...outerloop.aspx