Crystal Ball...Collin County (Dallas, Fort Worth: houses, neighborhoods, schools)

[tmtex]

Originally Posted by 214istheareacode

I have never heard of Blue Ridge, Weston and New Hope. I know Sachse a little bit. Plano is one that I could see possibly still being a top 5 Collin County city. I know these picks are subjective for everyone and people have their own reasons for the places they pick.

You dont get out much . Blue Ridge is up 78. Mainly acreage homes, very nice. New hope is near princeton. Weston is near prosper. Most of Sachse or half is Dallas County

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

I'd be curious to see good data on the differences in appreciation rates between these places, adjusted for compositional changes. The latter part is key. A place like Frisco that has put up a lot of high-end new construction of late will look like it has had outsized appreciation, but much of that is a compositional change. I really am curious to see how much difference there has been between Plano, Frisco, Prosper, etc. in the last five years.

In general, I think most of your appreciation is driven by a "rising tide lifts all boats" sort of thing, especially when talking about housing in the same general vicinity. I saw some data by zip code for Colorado Springs a couple years ago that covered the 2013-2018 period, and looking only at zip codes where there is very little new construction, the differences were relatively small, with the exception of gentrifying neighborhoods. One area might have been 80% over five years, and another might have been 65%, so still significant.....but nothing crazy. I wonder if anyone knows of a similar set of data for Collin County that excludes new construction?

[ilovepizza1975]

So if Collin County's going to continue exploding (along with its taxes), should I look in Flower Mound or Grapevine as well as Plano?

[TheOverdog]

the differences were relatively small, with the exception of gentrifying neighborhoods.

Housing has long appreciated at just the rate of inflation, and in places where lots of construction happens, at rates less than that. Historically (ok not much of history since most of it is pretty new), Collin County barely appreciated at all. Houses generally lost value. If now is going to be the 'new normal', then I think it's hard to say. Generally sure, the older, cheaper homes will appreciate more, because they can be scrapped for land value or far richer than what one might expect people will be moving into them. The rest will appreciate as long as they remain in demand, considering whatever factors that generally drive demand. I don't think it's correct to call that 'gentrification', because Collin County has long had a far above median income profile.

[Gentrifier]

Originally Posted by ilovepizza1975

So if Collin County's going to continue exploding (along with its taxes), should I look in Flower Mound or Grapevine as well as Plano?

This is a question we're asking ourselves as well. Flower Mound seems really clean & upscale with good schools, but at a lower price point than Frisco/Plano. Not sure why it's lower, my guess is the jobs & corporate relos that make Frisco/Plano so attractive just aren't there in Flomo/Grapevine. Interested to hear others' analysis

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by ilovepizza1975

So if Collin County's going to continue exploding (along with its taxes), should I look in Flower Mound or Grapevine as well as Plano?

How would that help you? Taxes will grow anywhere home values do. I don't see any of those cities experiencing any widespread depreciation.

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

Housing has long appreciated at just the rate of inflation, and in places where lots of construction happens, at rates less than that. Historically (ok not much of history since most of it is pretty new), Collin County barely appreciated at all. Houses generally lost value. If now is going to be the 'new normal', then I think it's hard to say. Generally sure, the older, cheaper homes will appreciate more, because they can be scrapped for land value or far richer than what one might expect people will be moving into them. The rest will appreciate as long as they remain in demand, considering whatever factors that generally drive demand. I don't think it's correct to call that 'gentrification', because Collin County has long had a far above median income profile.

Yes, home values, new and old, stayed pretty much flat and not far apart from at least the late 1980s until 2012. They appreciated at a consistent rate up until 2020. Now all of a sudden, people only want new. Older, cheaper homes are appreciating a whole lot less, at least here in McKinney. However, demand is also favoring larger homes on larger lots, and it is decidedly skewed in favor of the western half of Collin County.

Originally Posted by Gentrifier

This is a question we're asking ourselves as well. Flower Mound seems really clean & upscale with good schools, but at a lower price point than Frisco/Plano. Not sure why it's lower, my guess is the jobs & corporate relos that make Frisco/Plano so attractive just aren't there in Flomo/Grapevine. Interested to hear others' analysis

That wouldn't make sense because Flower Mound, among other cities farther out, is more expensive than McKinney, and McKinney is closer to the jobs than Flower Mound. Additionally if that were true, Plano would be more expensive than Frisco and certainly more than Prosper and Celina. I think it boils down to the neighborhood, how new it is, and how popular and trendy it is. There was once a time when Richardson was all the rage. I doubt that Plano is consistently more expensive than Flower Mound. Plano will have a wider range of values.

[ilovepizza1975]

Originally Posted by Gentrifier

This is a question we're asking ourselves as well. Flower Mound seems really clean & upscale with good schools, but at a lower price point than Frisco/Plano. Not sure why it's lower, my guess is the jobs & corporate relos that make Frisco/Plano so attractive just aren't there in Flomo/Grapevine. Interested to hear others' analysis

Same.

Originally Posted by Leonard123

How would that help you? Taxes will grow anywhere home values do. I don't see any of those cities experiencing any widespread depreciation.



Yes, home values, new and old, stayed pretty much flat and not far apart from at least the late 1980s until 2012. They appreciated at a consistent rate up until 2020. Now all of a sudden, people only want new. Older, cheaper homes are appreciating a whole lot less, at least here in McKinney. However, demand is also favoring larger homes on larger lots, and it is decidedly skewed in favor of the western half of Collin County.



That wouldn't make sense because Flower Mound, among other cities farther out, is more expensive than McKinney, and McKinney is closer to the jobs than Flower Mound. Additionally if that were true, Plano would be more expensive than Frisco and certainly more than Prosper and Celina. I think it boils down to the neighborhood, how new it is, and how popular and trendy it is. There was once a time when Richardson was all the rage. I doubt that Plano is consistently more expensive than Flower Mound. Plano will have a wider range of values.

So far I've found that Plano is consistently slightly more expensive than the east side of Flower Mound.

I've never actually seen Flower Mound so I can't say why that would be other than FM's location is certainly less ideal than Plano's. I'll have to take a trip up there this weekend to see what it actually looks like and get a feel for it.

My concern is that Collin County's appraisals are going to continue going insane for the next several years running and I'll be taxed out of my house within a decade. Denton County seems to be a little more restrained.

I see my house less as "an investment" and more simply a place to live. I have to be able to afford it comfortably while I still save for retirement. That's getting harder and harder around here, plus my retirement accounts are going to take a big hit in my upcoming divorce (for the record, I'm female). I'll need to save aggressively to make up for that loss.

Renting is not an option, I won't do it. I'd rather live further away in a cheaper suburb.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by ilovepizza1975

Same.



So far I've found that Plano is consistently slightly more expensive than the east side of Flower Mound.

I've never actually seen Flower Mound so I can't say why that would be other than FM's location is certainly less ideal than Plano's. I'll have to take a trip up there this weekend to see what it actually looks like and get a feel for it.

My concern is that Collin County's appraisals are going to continue going insane for the next several years running and I'll be taxed out of my house within a decade. Denton County seems to be a little more restrained.

I see my house less as "an investment" and more simply a place to live. I have to be able to afford it comfortably while I still save for retirement. That's getting harder and harder around here, plus my retirement accounts are going to take a big hit in my upcoming divorce (for the record, I'm female). I'll need to save aggressively to make up for that loss.

Renting is not an option, I won't do it. I'd rather live further away in a cheaper suburb.

You do realize the western half of Frisco and Prosper are in Denton County? I would hardly call it more restrained. At the same time, the northeastern parts of Collin County are going to be much more affordable. I don't see that area spiraling out of control like the west side. Denton itself is going to be less expensive, and your taxes will be lower there.

Lewisville and Carrollton are both going to be less expensive than either Plano or Flower Mound and more convenient than Flower Mound.

Flower Mound has neither flowers nor mounds. It's named for a field of weeds behind a Tom Thumb store. There are some beautiful tall trees though in parts of it. It's a rare sight for north Texas.

[Gentrifier]

Originally Posted by ilovepizza1975

Same.



So far I've found that Plano is consistently slightly more expensive than the east side of Flower Mound.

+1 to this. I don't have detailed stats to back it up, but from watching the market the past few months I can definitely get more house for my buck in flomo, and the market isn't as hot as Plano

Originally Posted by leonard123

Flower Mound has neither flowers nor mounds. It's named for a field of weeds behind a Tom Thumb store. There are some beautiful tall trees though in parts of it. It's a rare sight for north Texas.

The trees are absolutely astounding, I grew up in Frisco/Plano and didn't know we had anything like it right down the street. Here, for example even the strip shopping centers are pretty aesthetic.

So yeah, outside of the Big 4 (Plano/Frisco/Allen/McKinney) I'm keeping my eye on Flower Mound.

[ilovepizza1975]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

You do realize the western half of Frisco and Prosper are in Denton County? I would hardly call it more restrained. At the same time, the northeastern parts of Collin County are going to be much more affordable. I don't see that area spiraling out of control like the west side. Denton itself is going to be less expensive, and your taxes will be lower there.

Lewisville and Carrollton are both going to be less expensive than either Plano or Flower Mound and more convenient than Flower Mound.

Flower Mound has neither flowers nor mounds. It's named for a field of weeds behind a Tom Thumb store. There are some beautiful tall trees though in parts of it. It's a rare sight for north Texas.

I've seen a lot of Carrollton, less of Lewisville. I don't think I want to live in either one.

Originally Posted by Gentrifier

+1 to this. I don't have detailed stats to back it up, but from watching the market the past few months I can definitely get more house for my buck in flomo, and the market isn't as hot as Plano

The trees are absolutely astounding, I grew up in Frisco/Plano and didn't know we had anything like it right down the street. Here, for example even the strip shopping centers are pretty aesthetic.

So yeah, outside of the Big 4 (Plano/Frisco/Allen/McKinney) I'm keeping my eye on Flower Mound.

+10000 for trees. I'm a big fan of trees; I don't like new developments with twiggy little trees (if there are any at all). Some of the lots aren't even large enough to plant good trees without compromising foundations or underground utilities.