Future of Southern and Eastern Suburbs? (Dallas, Austin: renters, condo, houses)

[odieluck]

All of North Texas is growing, no doubt. Some places are growing faster than others, however, and the entire stretch of development along Preston Road all the way up to Celina is the hottest area in the Metroplex. So I wonder what the prospects are for growth in other parts of DFW that have not seen as much growth so far. What’s the future look like for places like Ellis County and Kaufman County? In 20 years, do they look anything like how the northern suburbs do today? Thanks.

[Dallaz]

I believe Kaufman County is the fastest growing county in America. A lot of development is going on in Forney, Crandall, Terrell, and Heartland...just to name a few. The roads there are trash and can't keep up with the growth though. It is still mainly country roads. There's also a lot of development in Ellis County as well. I've seen a lot of new subdivisions going up in Midlothian and Waxahachie. Particularly, in N. Grove Blvd and US 77 area in Waxahachie. I know Tom Thumb has started construction on two stores in Forney and Waxahachie. More options are needed as those areas continue to explode.

Based on the growth, I wouldn't be surprised if starts to resemble more of a suburban bedroom county. What Collin County has now is robust business/office parks that makes it more than just a bedroom community. For the most part, that's what I see Ellis and Kaufman Counites becoming, that's if they don't try to replicate what was done in Collin County. Traffic has increased significantly on 80 too as more and more people move to Forney. Many are leaving to get away from Mesquite, which is rapidly aging and declining.

[NP78]

Kaufman county is actually growing at an ever higher percentage than Collin (not as much growth in raw numbers as it is smaller to start with of course) and Rockwall is growing very fast as well.


Ellis is growing but not as rapidly as the suburbs to the North and East.

Even though Kaufman is growing rapidly, I don’t see it being similar to Collin. It lacks the job centers primarily and is not as accessible from the rest of the metroplex (my condolences to anyone who has to commute on 80 during rush hour).

ETA: Dallaz beat me to it and described it well.

[odieluck]

Originally Posted by Dallaz

I believe Kaufman County is the fastest growing county in America. A lot of development is going on in Forney, Crandall, Terrell, and Heartland...just to name a few. The roads there are trash and can't keep up with the growth though. It is still mainly country roads. There's also a lot of development in Ellis County as well. I've seen a lot of new subdivisions going up in Midlothian and Waxahachie. Particularly, in N. Grove Blvd and US 77 area in Waxahachie. I know Tom Thumb has started construction on two stores in Forney and Waxahachie. More options are needed as those areas continue to explode.

Based on the growth, I wouldn't be surprised if starts to resemble more of a suburban bedroom county. What Collin County has now is robust business/office parks that makes it more than just a bedroom community. For the most part, that's what I see Ellis and Kaufman Counites becoming, that's if they don't try to replicate what was done in Collin County. Traffic has increased significantly on 80 too as more and more people move to Forney. Many are leaving to get away from Mesquite, which is rapidly aging and declining.

So these areas seem to just be growing because they're cheap without nearby high paying jobs. I guess this means in the long term they'll age just about as well as Mesquite did. Still interesting to see sprawl finally branching out in different directions on the map, though. Midlothian is interesting though, since it's more expensive than other areas in this category, I'll be watching to see what happens there long term.

[Dallaz]

Originally Posted by odieluck

So these areas seem to just be growing because they're cheap without nearby high paying jobs. I guess this means in the long term they'll age just about as well as Mesquite did. Still interesting to see sprawl finally branching out in different directions on the map, though. Midlothian is interesting though, since it's more expensive than other areas in this category, I'll be watching to see what happens there long term.

Pretty much! That's my exact sentiment. You can include Garland in there as well. They were mostly blue collar suburbs and never attracted major companies to keep them economically healthy for the long term. Sprawl is often cheaply built and costs more to maintain as it ages. Suburban cities will never have the money to completely maintain it. Then people move to the next suburban boomtown and the process repeats itself. Mesquite was the location of the first enclosed mall in Southwest - Big Town Mall, but that whole area looks old and worn out to me now. There's a warehouse there now where the mall use to be. There are still developable areas in Mesquite and a new upscale subdivision is being built where the old Lucas Farm use to be. That may help, but a good chunk of Mesquite is still considered to be not as desirable as it use to be. I'd say older suburbs like Richardson and Coppell have aged better due to corporate relocations and higher income earners.

[Leonard123]

I think the northern sprawl has come to an end. It will grow but only by becoming more dense. The infrastructure and business environment simply isn't there to support continued expansion. History isn't going to repeat itself like people think. I think if you want to know how one of these fringe areas will end up, look at the types of housing being built and the neighborhoods and businesses going in. Looking east, it's not a pretty picture. I'm not so sure about south of Dallas, but it does seem like a step up from the eastern areas, however marginal.

[odieluck]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

I think the northern sprawl has come to an end. It will grow but only by becoming more dense. The infrastructure and business environment simply isn't there to support continued expansion. History isn't going to repeat itself like people think. I think if you want to know how one of these fringe areas will end up, look at the types of housing being built and the neighborhoods and businesses going in. Looking east, it's not a pretty picture. I'm not so sure about south of Dallas, but it does seem like a step up from the eastern areas, however marginal.

How come you think the southern areas have better chances than the east?

[ilovepizza1975]

What about the long term outlook for Oak Cliff? Not gentrified Oak Cliff but the area between 67 and 35 full of gorgeous 50s ranch houses. Every time I kick around the idea of moving to that area I'm put off by the lack of services. Problem is that the services won't come until they think that the population will sustain them. People have to be bold enough to invest.

Also I'd be concerned about my neighbors (who would be predominantly Black and Hispanic) seeing me (a white woman) as a harbinger of doom. I wouldn't blame them. The houses are gorgeous though if they're well-maintained.

[odieluck]

Originally Posted by ilovepizza1975

What about the long term outlook for Oak Cliff? Not gentrified Oak Cliff but the area between 67 and 35 full of gorgeous 50s ranch houses. Every time I kick around the idea of moving to that area I'm put off by the lack of services. Problem is that the services won't come until they think that the population will sustain them. People have to be bold enough to invest.

Also I'd be concerned about my neighbors (who would be predominantly Black and Hispanic) seeing me (a white woman) as a harbinger of doom. I wouldn't blame them. The houses are gorgeous though if they're well-maintained.

A lot of homeowners in Oak Cliff, especially the parts close to Kessler, might see their property values appreciate a lot by a decade or two if there is a demand for homes with more character and a more urban feel. Renters in the area and people for whom the property taxes are too high, however, will get the short stick. In many of those neighborhoods the only direction for their home prices is up, even though services will continue to be a challenge. It'd be interesting to see the extent of gentrification in Dallas in years to come. I wonder if it can get anything like it is in Austin.

[ilovepizza1975]

Originally Posted by odieluck

A lot of homeowners in Oak Cliff, especially the parts close to Kessler, might see their property values appreciate a lot by a decade or two if there is a demand for homes with more character and a more urban feel. Renters in the area and people for whom the property taxes are too high, however, will get the short stick. In many of those neighborhoods the only direction for their home prices is up, even though services will continue to be a challenge. It'd be interesting to see the extent of gentrification in Dallas in years to come. I wonder if it can get anything like it is in Austin.

Maybe. Dallas has release valves that Austin doesn't seem to have, i.e. the ability and desire to grow in all directions. Dallas will also build highways or at least allow them to be built. In Austin they throw fits.

If I were younger and more daring, I'd probably take the plunge and buy in south Oak Cliff. I think the area has tons of potential.