Dayton Affordability (Columbus, Cincinnati, Fairfield: real estate, foreclosures, to rent)

[ohio_peasant]

One more factor that merits mention: a cultural factor.

About a dozen years ago, there was a spate of hiring of engineers at Wright-Patt. These jobs offered around $50K to start, and the incumbents are now earning around $80K+. This isn't too shabby for a non-coastal metro area, and is certainly enough to afford one of the trendier houses in say the Oregon District. But based on my observations, most of those 22-year-old fresh hires from 2002 almost immediately got married and started families. Today their kids are going through elementary school. This is the prototypical suburbanite demographic… Beavercreek, Bellbrook, Springboro.

Well, if similar folks in similar circumstances were hired in SF or NYC, they'd have comparable qualifications, comparable work-ethic and career progression, comparable (in relative terms) earning potential. But there's a crucial difference – a cultural difference. A significant fraction of those young professionals would delay family formation by a decade or longer. It's that cultural difference that precludes a potential wave of youthful interest in urban living.

Cities are gentrified not by starving artists or part-time trombonists in the local philharmonic, but by engineers and lawyers, management consultants and medical doctors. If these folks value the pulse of urban social life, they have excellent reason to live in urban circumstances, and to become pioneer improvers of urban neighborhoods. If their main activity outside of work is shuttling the kids to after-school activities, well then, the urban lifestyle doesn't offer convenient parking for the minivan.

The higher housing prices in the cores of more "desirable" cities reflect the strong presence of comparatively affluent young people, with cultural inclination to live there. The Dayton region, in relative terms, may well have a reasonable proportion of comparatively affluent young people. But culural factors limit their interest in city life.

[Tarheel8406]

Originally Posted by Amandarthegreat

And my main position is that higher housing prices doesn't necessarily equal "better"--I wasn't really asking why Dayton is so affordable.

I don't think anyone has claimed that higher housing prices mean that one place is 'better' than another place. Rather, higher prices are simply an indicator that more people want to live in one area than in another area. You can't use housing prices as a universal indicator for desirability because desirability is subjective. In other words, nobody would say 'Housing prices are higher in LA than in Dayton. That means LA is a better place to live than Dayton.' It's just a sign that: a) more people want to live in LA (or wherever) than in Dayton, but that b) there are still people who want to live in Dayton.

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

One more factor that merits mention: a cultural factor.

About a dozen years ago, there was a spate of hiring of engineers at Wright-Patt. These jobs offered around $50K to start, and the incumbents are now earning around $80K+. This isn't too shabby for a non-coastal metro area, and is certainly enough to afford one of the trendier houses in say the Oregon District. But based on my observations, most of those 22-year-old fresh hires from 2002 almost immediately got married and started families. Today their kids are going through elementary school. This is the prototypical suburbanite demographic… Beavercreek, Bellbrook, Springboro.

Well, if similar folks in similar circumstances were hired in SF or NYC, they'd have comparable qualifications, comparable work-ethic and career progression, comparable (in relative terms) earning potential. But there's a crucial difference – a cultural difference. A significant fraction of those young professionals would delay family formation by a decade or longer. It's that cultural difference that precludes a potential wave of youthful interest in urban living.

I agree that culture plays a big role, but other cities have faced similar challenges but have also managed to revitalize their downtowns. I grew up in the South, so my hometown has similarly conservative values. (And by conservative, I just mean that many people in their 20s are also focused on settling down and raising a family.) The city even lost more people with a bachelors or a graduate degree than Dayton did in 2012, and yet its downtown is healthier than Dayton's. Similarly, Greenville, SC is a city that suffered economically during the 70s and 80s, but it's downtown has also recovered. My point isn't to criticize Dayton, but to try to figure out why it (and other Rust Belt cities, like Akron, Cleveland, Detroit, Toledo, and Youngstown) has been slower than other cities to recover.

[Dayton Sux]

^
racial & social class issues play a part.

@@@@

Redirecting back to the affordability topic.

I took a look at some regional numbers for this, just to see where the Dayton metro area sits.

From the national association of Realtors (TM) site, there is a listing of how much income one would need to qualify for a mortgage based on the median sale price of used homes (not new ones). For the first quarter of 2014 here are the numbers (assuming 20% down, mortgage @ 4.4%, P&I at 25% of income)

Youngstown....$12,242
Toledo............$13,998
Dayton...........$18,230
Ft Wayne........$18,347
Akron.............$19,512
Cleveland........$19,823
Cincinnati.....$23,628

Midwest.......$27,957
US...............$37,199

...so, if you have the money, the Dayton metropolitan area is quite affordable regionally. This is just the 1st quarter, maybe not a good metric considering the homebuying season is more in the warmer months?

Another way to look at this is the median sales price. Here is the regional look, with a comparison of increase or decrease, for April 2014.

Youngstown:....$64.6K.....-%3.6
Toledo.............$72.1K.......-%2.8
Dayton.............$93.9K........%0.4
Fort Wayne.......$94.5K........%1.0
Akron...............$100.5K.....-%7.2
Cleveland.........$102.1K.......%1.1
Louisville..........$131.1K........%1.2
Cincinnati.........$131.7K........%0.6
Lexington........$134.7K........-%2.3
Columbus........$135.2K.........%8.2

...again, the Dayton metro area is quite affordable vis a vis surrounding cities, and is showing small increase in price from 2013 to 2014.

So one reason this may be the case is (as has been said) the weak economy, that Dayton is a "weak market" metro area.

Some validation of that comes from Moodys Analytics.

Dayton Economic Outlook

Unfortunatly the bulk of the report is behind the paywall, yet this quick bullet summary states the issue:

Strengths

• Wright-Patterson AFB and local universities provide stability.
• Quality healthcare system that serves both the local population and surrounding region.
• Well-developed manufacturing infrastructure.

Weaknesses

• Manufacturing and defense have limited prospects for growth.
• Weak demographics and low educational attainment.

For a bit more detail, which validates the Moodys analyses to some degree, there is this nifty .pdf from the Cleveland Fed:

http://www.clevelandfed.org/our_regi...n&WT.oss_r=379


On the employment side, this statement, particularly the bolded part, probably influences housing affordability:

Relative to the state of Ohio and the nation, Dayton’s performance in key expanding employment sectors such as professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and construction has been lackluster. In the professional and business services sector, Dayton’s employment declined by 1.6 percent for the twelve months ending in September 2013, while Ohio’s and the nation’s both rose by approximately 3 percent. The area saw growth in the other three listed sectors, but at rates below those of the state and the nation. Tepid growth and outright decline in other key sectors such as manufacturing is also hampering the region’s growth in incomes. [/SIZE]

[Dayton Sux]

Another way of looking at affordability is at the rental market. Here is a regional comparison, ranked by the % of renters who are pay more than 35% of their income on rent + utilities (AKA "gross rent):

Median Gross Rent Percent of renters Vacany Rate
@ > 35% of income
Fort Wayne................$645......................... ...........33.2%........................12.0%
Louisville...................$710................. ....................38.2%....................... 5.1%
Lexington..................$718................... ................ 39.0%.........................6.2%
Columbus..................$791.................... .................39.6%........................6.6%
Dayton....................$714.................... ................39.9%.........................6.4%
Youngstown...............$616..................... ...............40.0%.........................6.8%
Indianapolis...............$773................... .................42.4%..........................9. 2%
Akron........................$741................. .................42.4%...........................7 .0%
Cincinnati..................$723.................. .................42.8%..........................7. 4%
Toledo.......................$630................. .................42.8%..........................7. 4%
Cleveland...................$720.................. ................43.5%..........................8.3 %

US............................$884................ ...................43.1%........................6. 8%

...so Dayton is looking pretty good vs the US average, and not too bad regionally, either.

Source:
Metropolitan Statistical Area MSA Rental Market Conditions
(this is base on 2012 American Community Survey..ACS...numbers).

[goofy328]

Originally Posted by Amandarthegreat

Since the other thread was shut down--I thought I'd open up a new one.

Picking up where the other left off--affordability in Dayton doesn't necessarily mean low-demand nor do high prices in places like LA, NYC, and San Francisco indicate a "better" place to live--it just means that those high prices are a bubble that has forced out regular, working people from those cities.

Yeah but no one will ever believe you because those cities you've mentioned are a lot sexier than Dayton. But I agree 100%.

[Amandarthegreat]

Originally Posted by goofy328

Yeah but no one will ever believe you because those cities you've mentioned are a lot sexier than Dayton. But I agree 100%.

They are now, they weren't always. For instance, they used to hand out brochures in NYC warning tourists to stay in the hotel.

[Natural510]

Agree to a certain extent, because with its geography Dayton has the potential to be a miniature version of Portland or Pittsburgh, as a city (divided by rivers) with distinct neighborhoods which could be very desirable if industry came back to town. Still, it's mostly potential at this point.

[CarpathianPeasant]

Originally Posted by Natural510

Agree to a certain extent, because with its geography Dayton has the potential to be a miniature version of Portland or Pittsburgh, as a city (divided by rivers) with distinct neighborhoods which could be very desirable if industry came back to town. Still, it's mostly potential at this point.

Please, not Pittsburgh!

[goofy328]

Originally Posted by Amandarthegreat

They are now, they weren't always. For instance, they used to hand out brochures in NYC warning tourists to stay in the hotel.

That's because tourists often lack common sense. Every city block in New York is different. I was staying at a nice hotel in Chelsea, and two blocks down some guy tried to sell me drugs. And he wasn't alone. I could have been over the head if I didn't have the street smarts to know how to gracefully leave that situation. But most cities are like that. I'm not entirely sure where you were going with that one.

[Amandarthegreat]

Originally Posted by goofy328

That's because tourists often lack common sense. Every city block in New York is different. I was staying at a nice hotel in Chelsea, and two blocks down some guy tried to sell me drugs. And he wasn't alone. I could have been over the head if I didn't have the street smarts to know how to gracefully leave that situation. But most cities are like that. I'm not entirely sure where you were going with that one.

New York City Used To Be A Terrifying Place [PHOTOS] - Business Insider This is what I'm talking about.