Dayton Affordability (Columbus, Kettering, Fairfield: middle-class, lease, buying a house)

[goofy328]

Originally Posted by Amandarthegreat

New York City Used To Be A Terrifying Place [PHOTOS] - Business Insider This is what I'm talking about.

New York City is still a bad place. What they say in the media, and being there, are two completely different things.

[Amandarthegreat]

Originally Posted by goofy328

New York City is still a bad place. What they say in the media, and being there, are two completely different things.

C'mon, are you telling me that the NYC of today is anything like it used to be in the 70s and 80s?

[goofy328]

Originally Posted by Amandarthegreat

C'mon, are you telling me that the NYC of today is anything like it used to be in the 70s and 80s?

Depends on what areas you're talking about. We're going somewhere else with this discussion. Bottom line is that Dayton will never be perceived in the same light as New York, and it will never be received in the same way.

No other city in America will be New York. Dayton has a better shot at some of the other cities mentioned, like Portland.

[SWOH]

True. Grand Rapids or Madison WI would be good cities to look to for what we could be.

[Tarheel8406]

I know this thread has turned into more of a debate on the desirability of Dayton, despite being called "Dayton Affordability," but here are some numbers on the recently released property value assessments in Montgomery County.
- There was a 4 percent decline since the last update in 2011, with a 4.9 percent decline in residential property and a 1.7 percent decline in commercial property.
- More than 70 percent of Montgomery County homeowners experienced a decrease in property value, with a total loss of $1 billion in value.
- Values dropped 7 percent in 2011 and are at their lowest levels in a decade.
- The losses aren't confined only to Montgomery County. Residential property values decreased 4.2 percent in Clark County, 3 percent in Greene County, 7.6 percent in Miami County, and 2.2 percent in Summit County.
- The good news: there was a significant drop in foreclosures in 2013, almost half of the total from 2008.

WDTN|Montgomery County Property Values Decline Again
WHIO|Local Property Value Down $1 Billion

[Dayton Sux]

^
interesting to see the deflation hitting Greene and Miami counties, since these were the two better performers (economically) in the region, not being weighed down by Dayton city and certain declining suburban areas.

[ohio_peasant]

The persistent regional decline of property values is one reason that I find it to be counterproductive to pit Dayton-city against its inner or outer suburbs. It's a regional issue, not an urban vs. suburban issue. The property decline in Greene County is personally frustrating to me, as I've been watching the apparent value of my house rise on zillow.com (albeit very slightly) in recent years, and it's an emotional setback to see dissent from such happy news.

Amidst all of this, here is my hypothetical question: suppose that in the coming years, more of Dayton City gets gentrified. Crime goes down, streets look prettier, trendy stores and genuine supermarkets open. Highway construction finally makes demonstrable progress. We get more arts festivals, a busier schedule at the Philharmonic, more tours by professional musicians, a few more high-tech small businesses. This is all eminently good. But what happens to property values region-wide? Do we really think that our houses will start to appreciate according to nation-wide median trends?

[hensleya1]

I've had a hard time communicating the low property values to my Dad, who spent quite a while in real estate.... but that was exclusive to Northern Kentucky, which was and still is a growing area, with property values that are doing a better job of mirroring national trends.

Imagine my trying to explain to him that while yes, it often makes better financial sense to rent versus buy for the first few years... that isn't the case in Dayton, where the market is warped. Rents are going up, but property values aren't.... and a house payment is often comparable to or less than rent in some areas. It's not exclusive to Dayton - any town that lost a lot of its big companies is struggling with that. Go 45 minutes to the south, though, and Cincinnati doesn't have that problem, at least not as bad as Dayton does.

But that's because Cincinnati has done a better job of retaining jobs and its big name companies - Kroger's, Macy's, P&G, etc. Dayton lost NCR, Delco, Delphi, Frigidaire, all the GM plants, etc, and hasn't really gotten those jobs back. Without the jobs, there's simply not enough money floating around to justify higher property values.

The only parts of Dayton that would be comparable, property value wise, to national standards, is a narrow corridor along I-675 stretching from Austin Landing up past the Greene to the Fairfield Commons area.

Watching the thousands of people last night try to navigate downtown in order to see the fireworks indicated one clear thing - the majority of these people only ever go into the city once or twice a year at most. I would think it's fairer to call Beavercreek a suburb of Wright Patterson before I would call it a suburb of Dayton.

And it makes me wonder though - if I worked at Wright Patterson, why would I choose to live anywhere else but Beavercreek? It's close to the base, there's no city taxes, and it has almost everything I would reasonably want or need - highway access, food, shopping, etc. The only things that town is lacking are the things associated with larger cities - museums, art scenes, etc. And downtown is only fifteen minutes away on 35 West if I want to do that.

Oh, wait - I've reached the exact same conclusion that thousands of others have... I wouldn't have much of a reason to head into the city. Therein lies your problem. And why most suburban residents couldn't give a flying fig about what happens in the city. And their opinion is only soured about the city even more when the city tries "regionalism", which is just another way to say the city wants the suburb's tax dollars.

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by hensleya1

...Cincinnati has done a better job of retaining jobs and its big name companies - Kroger's, Macy's, P&G, etc. Dayton lost NCR, Delco, Delphi, Frigidaire, all the GM plants, etc, and hasn't really gotten those jobs back. Without the jobs, there's simply not enough money floating around to justify higher property values.

... I would think it's fairer to call Beavercreek a suburb of Wright Patterson before I would call it a suburb of Dayton.

And it makes me wonder though - if I worked at Wright Patterson, why would I choose to live anywhere else but Beavercreek? It's close to the base, there's no city taxes, and it has almost everything I would reasonably want or need - highway access, food, shopping, etc. ...

The future of cities appears to be the hosting of corporate headquarters and of associated white-collar enterprises. Cincinnati isn't exactly a thriving metropolis, but it seems to have done reasonably well from the corporate HQ-hosting viewpoint, as has Columbus. Another example is Atlanta... a city that doesn't really manufacture anything, that doesn't really have a cultural or historical cachet, but which nevertheless thrives as corporate epicenter.

Interesting observations about Beavercreek. If we extend "greater Beavercreek" to include Wright-State and the Col. Glenn Blvd retail region, and Area-B of Wright-Patt, then indeed Beavercreek becomes a self-contained city.... a city of half-acre residential plots, but a city nonetheless. It has replicated Atlanta's success on a smaller scale: it hosts a massive corporate HQ, together with a network of supporting business. It can boast a fairly large university and extensive retail/commercial activity.

Question: why is Beavercreek doing so well, but Riverside and Fairborn doing so poorly?

[hensleya1]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

Interesting observations about Beavercreek. If we extend "greater Beavercreek" to include Wright-State and the Col. Glenn Blvd retail region, and Area-B of Wright-Patt, then indeed Beavercreek becomes a self-contained city.... a city of half-acre residential plots, but a city nonetheless. It has replicated Atlanta's success on a smaller scale: it hosts a massive corporate HQ, together with a network of supporting business. It can boast a fairly large university and extensive retail/commercial activity.

Question: why is Beavercreek doing so well, but Riverside and Fairborn doing so poorly?

There's a variety of reasons, but above all the desirability stems from the quality of the school district. Especially considering the large number of military transplants, what is the first thing you think people will look into when they're transferred to Wright-Patt?

1) They get on the computer and look up the greatschools.org rankings for the nearest suburbs to the base.

2) Fairborn has a 4 out of 10, Stebbins has a 3 out of 10, and Beavercreek is a 9 out of 10.

3) They call a local realtor and say "I'm moving from Virginia and I want something in Beavercreek."

4) The realtor gets on the MLS listing and spits out 20 houses.
4a) The realtor might try to talk up Fairborn (true story a realtor tried to get me to think about buying houses there), but will be shot down by the buyer.

5) The family moves to Beavercreek. Their children go to the high school on Dayton-Xenia, they shop at the nice new Kroger's on that corner of Dayton-Xenia and North Fairfield, and they shop at the Fairfield Mall (or possibly the Greene). They literally have zero reason to go to Riverside, Dayton, or Fairborn - much less do anything meaningful while in those cities.

The demand feeds more demand, it's a positive vicious cycle. There's a few reasonable offerings you can find in the older housing stock along Dayton-Xenia, perhaps between Grange Hall and Fairfield Roads.... but the majority of the new construction is further out now - along Beaver Valley and Trebein, stretching towards Xenia.


***

You want to get people into those cities? Give them a reason to go there.

(Now, it's probably unfair I ask you that question - because I don't know the answer, either.)