Is the Denver housing market experiencing a bubble? (credit, loans)

[JD401]

Originally Posted by Lafleur

This is key. Fortunately, I live in a 1-BR on the outskirts of Denver and have a cheaper apartment, so I can save a little bit better than my peers living in $1000-$1500/mo places closer to the city center. However, I'm still paying about $850/mo (including utilities) for the cheap apartment. That doesn't seem very cheap to me considering where I live (broken down property with no amenities essentially in suburbia).



As a first time Millennial home buyer myself, I can say that it's still extremely difficult to find townhomes and condos that are affordable, not to mention "starter" homes. I just put two offers on "starter" homes today that are priced at $180k to $200k. These houses are small (less than 800 sq ft) and need a bunch of work inside and outside. These are not "starter" home prices where I come from, but oh well I guess. Townhomes and condos are not necessarily an easier go-to option either, because even when you find one in your price range, HOA fees (typically around $200-$300 from what I'm seeing) tend to make the monthly payment less affordable.

It's tough for me to try to save money here while living a relatively normal social life, and I'm making around $61k ($67k w/ bonus) per year. I can't imagine doing it on $45k/yr.

The millennial growth pattern isn't slowing (really, that article I shared is an interesting read). That's likely where the dramatic shortage of rentals is coming from. You'll soon see that translate in to what emm is describing. The condo market is going to become even stronger, especially anywhere near downtown, as millennials become established in their respective careers, get raises and promotions, etc. but aren't yet ready to "settle down" to the suburbs, if ever. Cityscapes are changing.

It's all relative. You (I) pay those HOA fees to take care of maintenance, heat, water, and the like. Plus, much lower homeowner's insurance premiums than a SFH. 180-200k would get a nice condo very near downtown with amenities, which, at least thus far, has appreciated just as fast as a SFH by percent.

[Lafleur]

Originally Posted by JD401

It's all relative. You (I) pay those HOA fees to take care of maintenance, heat, water, and the like. Plus, much lower homeowner's insurance premiums than a SFH. 180-200k would get a nice condo very near downtown with amenities, which, at least thus far, has appreciated just as fast as a SFH by percent.

Have you been shopping around? I am, and I strongly disagree with this statement. I lost out on a 2-BR townhome at Quebec and Iliff for close to $200k, no amenities besides a swimming pool. The asking price was $170k. Whatever you're seeing them listed at, add on $10k-$20k to the final price. Because that's what's happening here as a result of all the bidding wars that are taking place here. A girl on my kickball team told me is took her eight offers until someone finally accepted one of her bids.

I don't know what you're definition of nice is, but any nice condo near downtown is probably going to be closer to $250k-$300k, and that's probably for a 500-600 square foot efficiency condo. $180k-$200k is in my price range, and my realtor has not found me anything near downtown for that price (townhome/condo/SFH).

[JD401]

Originally Posted by Lafleur

Have you been shopping around? I am, and I strongly disagree with this statement. I lost out on a 2-BR townhome at Quebec and Iliff for close to $200k, no amenities besides a swimming pool. The asking price was $170k. Whatever you're seeing them listed at, add on $10k-$20k to the final price. Because that's what's happening here as a result of all the bidding wars that are taking place here. A girl on my kickball team told me is took her eight offers until someone finally accepted one of her bids.

I don't know what you're definition of nice is, but any nice condo near downtown is probably going to be closer to $250k-$300k, and that's probably for a 500-600 square foot efficiency condo. $180k-$200k is in my price range, and my realtor has not found me anything near downtown for that price (townhome/condo/SFH).

Not 500 sqft, but sure, it depends. Not sure what size outside of 600-750 you're expecting at that price point in a location near downtown though. Certainly not a 2bdr, unless it needs a lot of work. That price point is for a single or a couple "space", no kids, 1bdr. True, everyone's definition of nice is different. "Nice" meaning not seedy, and move in ready with some amenities.

I live just north and east of Governor's Park in Capitol Hill. I'd say our unit and building is above average, nice decent sized 1bdr, in a nice building, with good amenities. We're not talking Beauvallon crazy prices, but not a two story house divided in to 10 units with zero amenities either. I follow the RE in our area, and have since we moved in a 1 1/2 years ago. Units in our building are going for ~$300 - 330 sqft.

Super quick search just around Cap Hill, using just one listing site:

180k, 692 sqft, $260 sqft, good amenities (rooftop pools and patios are present on some buildings around here, but not even close to a majority of them - very nice perk)

1029 East 8th Avenue #203, Denver, CO For Sale | Trulia.com

Want a nicer one in the same building, with parking ($291 sqft, 200k)?

1029 East 8th Avenue #1105, Denver, CO For Sale | Trulia.com

Here's an updated, two story building (yes, it's 601 sqft, listed at 174k):

1045 N Clarkson Street #208, Denver, CO For Sale | Trulia.com

622 sqft at 159k ($256 sqft):

1196 North Grant Street #507, Denver, CO For Sale | Trulia.com

Can I offer some advice? Don't rely on your realtor to find the properties for you. They are working on x number of additional clients. You are working for you. Do your own research, daily, on multiple sites, compile a list, and send an email to your realtor with the listings saying you want to look at xyz tomorrow. If you know where you want to be, subscribe to the daily alert for listings in that area, and act fast if you see one that intrigues you. We got incredibly lucky following this model, finding our unit the day it was listed (because of an email alert), and looked at it the next day. What's that saying though? Something about luck and preparation and opportunity being related? Happy hunting

[Robert5]

Denver has a inferiority complex. It has gotten used to minimal y/y housing price gains. You don't see 15 page threads in the Miami, SF, LA, DC, San Diego and Boston forums about them experiencing a bubble, yet they are up 30-60% more than Denver since 2000.

[Lost Roses]

Originally Posted by Robert5

Denver has a inferiority complex. It has gotten used to minimal y/y housing price gains. You don't see 15 page threads in the Miami, SF, LA, DC, San Diego and Boston forums about them experiencing a bubble, yet they are up 30-60% more than Denver since 2000.

Yeah, but we're Denver. Remember? Cowtown and all that.

[AmFest]

Originally Posted by Robert5

Denver has a inferiority complex. It has gotten used to minimal y/y housing price gains. You don't see 15 page threads in the Miami, SF, LA, DC, San Diego and Boston forums about them experiencing a bubble, yet they are up 30-60% more than Denver since 2000.

Ooh head-on insult. I like it.

Who cares about such a long period? People that could not stand the housing cost inflation in the aforementioned cities have moved on a long time ago. It's the recent events that attract attention and discussion. Now, how have those cities compared to Denver in the past 3 years?

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by robert5

you don't see 15 page threads in the miami, sf, la, dc, san diego and boston forums about them experiencing a bubble, yet they are up 30-60% more than denver since 2000.

[mic111]

Originally Posted by davebarnes

Attachment 151571

Love it! The scale on the left hand side isn't the same for all of them. If it was you would really see some differentiation.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by mic111

Love it! The scale on the left hand side isn't the same for all of them. If it was you would really see some differentiation.

I think the key takeaway is that Denver is the only one with pricing above it's pre-recession level. San Fran is the only one getting close, and yes, that market is really hot right now.

[empires228]

I almost want to see a bubble bust in the Denver Metro because I'm tired of hearing about how fantastic Denver is all over the internet from people who don't even live there..., but I'm too nice to wish that upon the residents.